LAPS STMAS Verification Activities Steve Albers Isidora Jankov

LAPS / STMAS Verification Activities Steve Albers, Isidora Jankov ESRL / GSD Verification Summit September 2011 Updated Sep 7, 2011

LAPS Motivation High Resolution (500 m – 20 km), rapid update (10 -60 min) Highly portable system – about 150 users world wide • Federal Gov’t – NWS, RSA, PADS, FAA, DHS • State Gov’t – California Dept of Water Resoures • International – Finnish Met. Inst. , China Heavy Rain Inst. • Global analysis – used by SOS Wide variety of data sources: OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch 2

LAPS / STMAS DA-Ensemble System Data Ingest Built-in Verification Ports with system Intermediate data files Error Covariance Trans Analysis Scheme Classic GSI STMAS-3 D Trans Verification Model prep WRF-ARW OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch http: //esrl. noaa. gov/gsd/fab MM 5 Ensemble Forecast WRF-NMM Probabilistic Post Processing 3

Global Solar Radiation Analysis + Observations ARL / FRD OK Mesonet

Global Solar Radiation Analysis + Observations 3 -Frames at 15 -minute interval

Solar Radiation Analysis Verification Oklahoma Region (past 48 hours) 15 minute verification ~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations. 3 km grid spacing 1 km grid spacing

Solar Radiation Web Page Verified at station locations measuring global solar radiation on time scales <= 15 min Mean Analyzed / Forecast Mean Observed RMS differences

Solar Radiation Analysis Verification Clearer Days HWT Domain Analysis (72 hour time series) ~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations.

Solar Radiation Analysis Verification Partly Cloudy Days HWT Domain Analysis (72 hour time series) ~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations.

Downward Solar Radiation Forecast vs. Observations

Cloud Cover Analysis Matching 1 -3 hour Solar Radiation Forecast

Solar Radiation Ensemble Forecast Verification HMT Forecast (00 -09 hours) ~6 Idaho ARL solar radiation stations.

Solar Radiation Forecast Verification HWT Forecast (00 -06 hours) LAPS / STMAS / HRRR + Oklahoma solar radiation stations. LAPS STMAS HRRR LAPS HRRR STMAS

Radar Reflectivity Verification Web Page Verified over various domains of integration for deterministic as well as ensemble forecasts. 3 D radar volume data at several reflectivity thresholds. BIAS ETS

Cloud. Sat Verification of LAPS Cloud Analysis LAPS Cloud. Sat

Analysis 3 -hr Forecast, Lin μPhys 16 June 2002 Well-Developed Squall Line at Initial time

Bias & ETS June 16 2002 Low Sensitivity in Bias to Variations in Microphysics (developed squall line case) ETS values are highest at early times due to hot-start ETS 20 d. BZ Bias 20 d. BZ 4 LIN-Kessler 2 ETS WSM 6 -Kessler 0 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 150 165 Forecast Minutes 0, 8 0, 6 0, 4 0, 2 0 LIN-Kessler WSM 6 -Kessler 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 150 165 Forecast Minutes SCH-Kessler 0, 6 4 LIN-Kessler 2 ETS WSM 6 -Kessler 0 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 150 165 Forecast Minutes 0, 4 WSM 6 -Kessler 0 SCH-Kessler Forecast Minutes Bias 40 d. BZ ETS 40 d. BZ 0, 6 LIN-Kessler WSM 6 -Kessler 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 150 165 Forecast Minutes SCH-Kessler ETS 10 8 6 4 2 0 LIN-Kessler 0, 2 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 150 165 Bias 6 Bias SCH-Kessler ETS 30 d. BZ Bias 30 d. BZ 0, 4 LIN-Kessler 0, 2 WSM 6 -Kessler 0 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 150 165 Bias 6 Forecvast Minutes SCH-Kessler