LAPS DA Configuration Data Ingest Intermediate data files

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LAPS DA Configuration Data Ingest Intermediate data files Error Covariance Trans LAPS GSI STMAS

LAPS DA Configuration Data Ingest Intermediate data files Error Covariance Trans LAPS GSI STMAS 3 D Trans Post proc 1 Post proc 2 Post proc 3 Model prep WRF-ARW MM 5 Ensemble Forecast WRF-NMM Probabilistic Post Processing

Precipitation Analysis (QPE) Inputs Radar Reflectivity Rain Gauges • Presently Collaborating with Finnish Met.

Precipitation Analysis (QPE) Inputs Radar Reflectivity Rain Gauges • Presently Collaborating with Finnish Met. Inst. on Radar / Gauge blending algorithms Model First Guess

Precipitation Analysis

Precipitation Analysis

Cloud Analysis Scheme Uses satellite Vis and IR Aircraft observations Surface observations Radar Interpolates

Cloud Analysis Scheme Uses satellite Vis and IR Aircraft observations Surface observations Radar Interpolates cloud obs to grid with SCM Cloud feeds back into water vapor analysis

Derived products flow chart

Derived products flow chart

Cloud/precip cross section

Cloud/precip cross section

MARCH 14 00 -12 Z PRECIPITATION FORECAST – 9 KM MOVIE LOOP 1 -hr

MARCH 14 00 -12 Z PRECIPITATION FORECAST – 9 KM MOVIE LOOP 1 -hr Increments Storm Total

MARCH 14 00 -12 Z PRECIPITATION FORECAST – 3 KM MOVIE LOOP 1 -hr

MARCH 14 00 -12 Z PRECIPITATION FORECAST – 3 KM MOVIE LOOP 1 -hr Increments Storm Total

MARCH 14 00 -12 Z RADAR REFLECTIVITY FORECAST – 3 KM (Animation)

MARCH 14 00 -12 Z RADAR REFLECTIVITY FORECAST – 3 KM (Animation)

MARCH 14 06 -18 Z RADAR REFLECTIVITY FORECAST – 3 KM (Animation)

MARCH 14 06 -18 Z RADAR REFLECTIVITY FORECAST – 3 KM (Animation)

MARCH 14 06 -18 Z 1 -hr ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION – 3 km MOVIE LOOP

MARCH 14 06 -18 Z 1 -hr ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION – 3 km MOVIE LOOP Analysis + rain gauges Forecast + rain gauges

MARCH 14 00 Z Integrated Water Vapor – 9 KM 24 HR MOVIE LOOP

MARCH 14 00 Z Integrated Water Vapor – 9 KM 24 HR MOVIE LOOP Analysis Forecast

MARCH 14 00 -12 Z UPSLOPE MOISTURE FLUX – 9 KM MOVIE LOOP Analysis

MARCH 14 00 -12 Z UPSLOPE MOISTURE FLUX – 9 KM MOVIE LOOP Analysis Forecast

What FAB can do with Precip Assimilation Validation by comparing with 3 -D radar

What FAB can do with Precip Assimilation Validation by comparing with 3 -D radar & microphysical analysis Development of forward models to bring GPM data into variational LAPS analysis and WRF model forecasts