LakeEffect over Lakes Smaller than the Great Lakes

Lake-Effect over Lakes Smaller than the Great Lakes Image: 18 Jan. 2003 Burlington, VT Neil Laird Associate Professor Department of Geoscience, Hobart & William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY Acknowledgement: Jared Desrochers, Indiana Univ. Melissa Payer, Univ. at Albany Ryan Sobash, Oklahoma Univ. Natasha Hodas, Rutgers Univ. Jessica Popp, William Smith College Benjamin Albright, Penn State Univ. Sara Ganetis, Univ. at Albany Andrew Stieneke, N. C. State Univ. Alicia Bentley, Univ. at Albany Samantha Santeiu, Iowa State Univ. Portions of this research were completed as part of the 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009 and 2010 undergraduate summer research program at Hobart & William Smith Colleges. Funding for these projects were provided by the National Science Foundation and the Provost's Office of Hobart & William Smith Colleges. Image courtesy of CAMNET operated by the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management

Lake-Effect over Small Lakes – Why should we care? • Few studies have investigated lake-effect snow storms associated with lakes smaller than the Great Lakes • Studies have shown lake-effect storms on small lakes can be significant Examples include: • Great Salt Lake 15 -hr event resulted in 36 cm (14 inches) Steenburgh and Onton (2001) • Lake Tahoe 2 -day event produced 53 cm (23 inches) Cairns et al. (2001) • Lake Champlain 12 -hr event lead to 33 cm (13 inches) and less than ¼ mile visibility Tardy (2000) • Are there differences between small- and large-lake-effect processes or the parameter space of necessary conditions? Does scale matter? • Do lake-effect events over small lakes have different challenges in predictability when compared to large lake events? • Small lake environment likely more sensitive to climate variations than large lake systems (mesoscale - climate connection)

Comparing Lake Spatial Scales – Idealized Model Simulations Lake Area = 31, 416 km 2 Quasi-steady state circulation after 36 hour simulations U = 12. 5 m s-1; DT = 22. 5°C; dq /d. Z = 1. 0 K km-1 below 1. 5 km Laird, Kristovich and Walsh (2003) Lake Area = 7, 854 km 2

Past Lake-Effect Studies of Small Lakes Tardy, Lake effect and lakeduring enhanced snow inoutbreak the Watson et al. , 1998: High resolution numerical simulations of lines Carpenter, D. M. , 1993: The Lake Effect of the Great Salt Lake: Wilken, 2000: 1997: A lake-effect snow in Arkansas. NWS/NOAA Schultz et 2004: Snowbands the cold-air of -23 Huggins etal. , 2001: A 2002: lake effect snowfall in Western Nevada Sikora and Halverson, Multiyear observations of cloud th Champlain Valley of Vermont. NWS/NOAA technical attachment Finger Lakes snow bands. Preprints, 16 Conf. on Wea. Anal. Overview and Forecast Problems. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 181– 193. technical attachment (SR/SSD 97 -21). 3 pp. January 2003. Mon. Wea. Rev. , 132, 827 -842. Part II: Radar Characteristics and quantitative associated with the Chesapeake and Delawareprecipitation Bays. J. Appl. (NO. 2000 -05). 27 pp. 18 th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting estimates. Meteor. , 41, Preprints, 825 -831. th Conf. Steenburgh et al. , 2000: of lake-effect snowstorms of Forecasting/14 on. Climatology Numerical Weather Prediction. Cosgrove et al. , 1996: Lake effect snow in the Finger Lakes the Great Salt Lake. Mon. Wea. Rev. , 128, 709– 727. region. Preprints, 15 th Conf. on Wea. Anal. and Forecasting. Steenburgh and Onton, 2001: Multiscale Analysis of the 7 December 1998 Great Salt Lake–Effect Snowstorm. Mon. Wea. Rev. , 1296– 1317. Onton and Steenburgh, 2001: Diagnostic and Sensitivity Studies of the 7 December 1998 Great Salt Lake–Effect Snowstorm. Mon. Wea. Rev. , 129, 1318– 1338.

Comparing Lake Spatial Scales Lake Ontario (18, 960 km 2) Great Salt Lake (4, 400 km 2) Lake Champlain (1, 127 km 2) Lake Tahoe (490 km 2) Seneca Lake (175 km 2)

Lake Champlain & New York State Finger Lakes Lake Champlain Eastern Lake Ontario Eastern NYS Finger Lakes satellite map courtesy of Google Maps

Lake-Effect Event Types – NYS Finger Lakes & Lake Champlain NYS Finger Lakes (b) 0605 UTC 09 Mar 2005 SYNOP Lake Champlain (a) 1347 UTC 08 Mar 1996 SYNOP (c) 1203 UTC 03 Dec 2003 LOenh LC NYSFL LC-South

Lake-Effect Frequency – Lake Champlain & NYS Finger Lakes Lake Champlain (11 winters) (9 winters) 3. 9 2. 7 1. 9 1. 5 1. 3 N of Champlain N of NYS Finger Lakes 2. 9 2. 0 1. 0 0. 9 Laird, Sobash and Hodas (2009) Laird, Desrochers and Payer (2009)

Finger Lakes Lake-Effect Frequency – Individual Lakes

Lake-Effect Event Duration & Timing NYS Finger Lakes Lake Champlain Start Time Event Duration 75% Mean: 9. 4 hrs End Time Mean: 12. 1 hrs End Time 90%

Lake-Effect Event – Finger Lakes – SLP composites H SYNOP L LOenh L H NYSFL

Lake-Effect Event – Lake Champlain – SLP composites H H L L H L

Lake Champlain & New York State Finger Lakes CHYU PLB VMCR BTV Lake Champlain Eastern Lake Ontario ROC SYR Eastern NYS Finger Lakes PEO ITH satellite map courtesy of Google Maps

Surface Temperatures (based on hourly observations during events) NYS Finger Lakes Lake Champlain

Lake – Air Temperature Difference NYS Finger Lakes Lake Champlain

Dew Point Temperature NYS Finger Lakes Lake Champlain

Sea-Level Pressure NYS Finger Lakes Lake Champlain

Surface Wind Speed NYS Finger Lakes Lake Champlain

Finger Lakes Lake-Effect: Depth of Stable Layer (a) 1347 UTC 08 Mar 1996 (b) 0605 UTC 09 Mar 2005 SYNOP (c) 1203 UTC 03 Dec 2003 LOenh NYSFL

Finger Lakes Lake-Effect North South

Great Salt Lake, Lake Tahoe, & Pyramid Lake Great Salt Lake Pyramid Lake Tahoe satellite map courtesy of Google Maps

Lake Champlain N of NYS Finger Lakes N of Ontario Lake-Effect Frequency: Small Lakes vs. Large Lake 80 Lake Ontario 60 40 Tahoe / Pyramid 20 0

Summary • Lake-effect occurs on NYS Finger Lakes with an average of 11 events per winter • Lake Champlain - 7 events per winter • Lake Tahoe / Pyramid Lake - 4 events per winter • Although NYS Finger Lakes are smaller than Lake Champlain, favorable lake-effect forcing conditions are more easily reached more events • Attribute to Lake Ontario being upstream providing source of heat, moisture and pre-existing lake-effect circulations • Lake-effect type and associated conditions linked to evolutional stage of synoptic pattern and southward establishment of polar air mass • SYNOP LOenh NYSFL • SYNOP LC-North LC-South (NYS Finger Lakes) (Lake Champlain) • Narrow set of conditions necessary for lake-effect on small lakes Open question: How do these compare to Great Lakes lake-effect conditions? Open question: What is the predictability of small lake LE events? Null cases? • Link between mesoscale events and regional climate variability Open question: Given the narrow set of conditions for lake-effect on small lakes, can the frequency and variability of these events be an indicator for changes in climate or demonstrate what might happen with regional climate changes?