Labour Force Trends 1 Labour force Its labour

Labour Force Trends 1

§ Labour force § It’s labour supply § Remember supply schedule - it will change with the exogenous variables § LF = Employed + Unemployed = E + U § It’s those who can be useful/used § Not in labour force 2

§ Statistics Canada => the Labour Force Survey (LFS) § Monthly § in a reference week § Employed: worked for pay or profit at least one hour in the reference week § “normally working, ” but didn’t work in reference week § Illness § Holidays § Strike § Unemployed: § Didn’t work in the reference week + available to work + searched for work in the 4 previous weeks § Didn’t work in the reference week + will start work in next 4 weeks § temporary layoff § about to start new job § Not in the LF: everyone else § § Retirees fulltime students Homemakers Slackers 3

§ Labour force grows 1947: 4. 9 million 1998: 15. 6 million 2003: 17. 0 million 2010: 18. 7 million 2031: 20. 5 -22. 5 million faster in the 1960 s-1970 s (3%/year) slower afterwards (1%/year in 1990 s, 2%/year 1999 -2003) § Slower yet in 2010 s-2020 s § § § § 4

LABOUR FORCE entries withdrawals labour force participation rate • • • 14 yo and under Armed Forces Institutuionalized Living on reserves Living in the territories civilian working age population domestic population new humans (fertility rate) dead humans (mortality rate) emigration new immigrants 5

§ Population Base Growth § § § § 1960: 18 million 1970: 21 million 1980: 25 million 1990: 28 million 2000: 31 million 2010: 34 million 2012: 35 million Where from? 6

§ Fertility rate § § § 1960: 3. 8 1970: 2. 3 1980: 1. 7, and stays about there It is below replacement rate 2. 1 Why? § Busier § Costly § Birth rate § Older (baby boomers) 7

§ Mortality rate § No significant changes in last 30 years § Death rate § Declining birth rate + constant death rate = … § Declining natural (population) growth rate 8

§ More population growth: § § Immigration Emigration Net immigration > 0 in Canada Immigration rates § A bit above 1% (of Canada’s population) in 1950 s § About 0. 75% now § Close to 200, 000/year 9

§ Kinds of immigrants: § Country quotas up to 1968 (race) § Point system from 1968 § Skill § Experience § Family § Classes § § Independent Family Business Refugees § Came from Europe, now come from Asia § More family now, too § How would you expect them to do when they come 10

§ Kinds of immigrants: § Country quotas up to 1968 (race) § Point system from 1968 § Skill § Experience § Family § Classes § § Independent Family Business Refugees § Came from Europe, now come from Asia § More family now, too § How would you expect them to do when they come 11

§ Labour force participation: § Labour force participation rate § = (labour force / working age population) x 100% § Overall increase § 1947: 55% § 2012: 67% § Too general: Men vs women § Youth: § Cyclical participation 12

§ What’s up with the women? § Social attitudes § War and 60 s § Educational levels § More flexible-hour jobs § Service sector up § Employment opportunities § Urbanization § Legislation § § § Women’s wages up Fertility down Washers/dryers/microwaves Living standards, helpless men, and two-earner family Marriage break-ups up § Have to work § Have to insure 13

§ What’s up with the women? § Social attitudes § War and 60 s § Educational levels § More flexible-hour jobs § Service sector up § Employment opportunities § Urbanization § Legislation § § § Women’s wages up Fertility down Washers/dryers/microwaves Living standards, helpless men, and two-earner family Marriage break-ups up § Have to work § Have to insure 14