Labor Markets Labor Trends Automation and Work in
Labor Markets, Labor Trends, Automation and Work in America Allen D. Engle, Sr. Foundation Professor of Management Eastern Kentucky University USA Komárom/Komárno, 29 May, 2019
OVERVIEW • I The Socio-economic Situation in the USA, a Ten Year Overview • II The U. S. Labor Market: Past, Present and Future • III The Role of Immigrants in the U. S. Labor Force • IV Trends of Automation/Robotization/Artificial Intelligence • Questions and Answers (More Questions Than Answers, I Fear)
DISCLAIMER • I am not a Labor Economist • I am not an Expert on Immigration • I am not an Expert on Automation • I am still a Good Person
I A SOCIOECONOMIC REVIEW: The US Economy 2008 -2018 “GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS” • GDP Growth, 2. 8% on Average • Predicted to the 1. 9% (2019 -2024) (The Economist) • Labor Productivity (Person) Up: Index of 100 in 2009, Up to 107 in 2016 (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
I A SOCIOECONOMIC REVIEW: The US Economy 2008 -2018 (Part Two) “GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS” • Inflation (% Annual Change) Crashes in 2008 Via Actions of the Federal Reserve Board: Federal Funds Average 2. 2% From 2011 Through 2019 • Interest Rates Dropped From 3% to 5% Rates Pre 2008 to Nearly 0% From 2009 -2016, Creeping Back Up to 2. 5% in 2019 (Federal Reserve Board)
II LABOR MARKETS “More Workers, Less Paycheck” • Employment in 2007 – 138 million • Employment in 2010 – 130 million • Employment in 2018 – 149 million • Unemployment Rate in 2010 – 10% • Unemployment Rate in 2019 – 3. 7% (U. S. Department of Labor Statistics)
II LABOR MARKETS (Part Two) • Wage Growth Was 3. 5% Before the Crash of 2008 • Wage Growth of 2. 3% Between 2010 and 2017 • Wage Growth Varies Dramatically By Occupational Category: • Management, Professional and Related – Up 1. 8 Adjusted For Inflation • Services, Sales, Office, Construction, Materials – A Decline in Wages Adjusted (Department For Professional Employees)
II LABOR MARKETS (Part Three) • Women Are Paid 6. 8% Less Than Men in Similar Occupations • Underemployment – Some 5% of the Workforce is “Underemployed” Part Time and Don’t Want to Be • Post 2008: Older Workers, Particularly in Low Wage Occupations, Continue to Work Beyond 65 to 70, and Beyond • Growth In Wealth Inequality (Department for Professional Employees)
III THE ROLE(S) OF IMMIGRANTS IN THE U. S. LABOR MARKET “Naming the Unspeakable” • In 2018 “Foreign Born Persons” Made Up 17. 4% of the U. S. Labor Force • 50% Hispanic, 25% Asian • Men More Than Women (77. 9% vs. 54. 3%) • Youngish (25 to 54 Years Old
III THE ROLE(S) OF IMMIGRANTS IN THE U. S. LABOR MARKET (Part Two) • Predominantly Service Occupations, Natural Resources and Construction • Earn Around 83% of their Native Counterparts ($758/week) • Interestingly, Women make 83% of Their Native Counterparts, While Men Make 80% of Their Native Counterparts (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
IV TRENDS OF AUTOMATION/ROBOTIZATION/ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE “Variation In Impact/When Will Doomsday Arrive? ” • Almost No Occupational Category Unaffected, But Some Groups Impacted More Than Others • 25% of Employment (Some 36 Million Jobs) “High Exposure to Automation” (Defined as At Least 70% of Tasks Substituted By Machines) • 36% of Employment (Some 52 Million Jobs) “Medium Exposure to Automation” • 39% of employment (Some 57 Million Jobs) “Low Exposure to Automation
IV TRENDS OF AUTOMATION/ROBOTIZATION/ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (Part Two) • Most Vulnerable: Office Administration, Production, Transportation, Food Prep • Less at Risk: BOTH High End Creative, Complex Professionals and, Low End Personal Care, Domestic Services, Nurses • Trouble in “The Middle” • Geographical Variation – Trouble in “The Heartland”, Central U. S. , Uneven Effects, By City Size, City vs. Rural, etc. (The Brookings Institute, January 2019)
IV TRENDS OF AUTOMATION/ROBOTIZATION/ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE - A TIMETABLE? “Here It Gets Fuzzy” • Automation and A. I. By “ 2030” (Mckinsey Report Discussion Paper, May, 2018) • British Guessing: In the “Medium Term” Sluggish Growth, Subsidizing Jobs to Maintain Employment In the “Long Term” Sheer Speculative Futurism “Moorlocks and Eloi” (Martin Wolf in the Financial Times, 2018) • “Naming the Unspeakable” Again? No One Wants to Go On Record
QUESTIONS, COMMENTS, THANKS Köszönöm megtisz telő figyelmüket Nyomja meg a Három gombot, hogy meggyőződjön róla, hogy emberhez kötődik
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