Labor Market Information Methodology and uses Part 3

Labor Market Information Methodology and uses Part 3 Dennis Reid Bureau of Labor Statistics San Francisco Regional Office October 2014

Bureau of Labor Statistics The BLS is the principal fact-finding agency for the Federal Government in the broad field of labor economics and statistics The BLS mission is to collect, process, analyze and disseminate data BLS is an independent statistical agency. It serves its diverse user communities by providing products and services that are objective, timely, accurate, and relevant. Users include the American public, Congress, Federal agencies, state and local governments, businesses, labor organizations 2

Fed/State Cooperative Programs Partnership with eight States & Guam Contract: LMI & OSHS Cooperative Agreements BLS → States – $, procedures, sample selection, systems, manuals, training (OSHS: 50% funding by law) – Ensure consistency across all states States → BLS – Collect, process and edit the data – Analyze/publish State and area data BLS ↔ States – Policy collaboration via Workforce Information Council and Program Policy Councils 3

Labor Force Programs Overview BLS and the Federal/State Cooperative Programs Comparison of programs NAICS (North American Industry Classification System) QCEW (Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages “ES-202”) CES (Current Employment Statistics) OES (Occupational Employment Statistics) CPS (Current Population Survey) LAUS (Local Area Unemployment Statistics) JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) OSHS (Occupational Safety & Health Statistics) 4

Comparison of Labor Force and OSHS Programs QCEW CES OES CPS LAUS JOLTS SOII CFOI Data Collected by States & BLS ROs Census Bureau Input from CPS, CES, UI BLS States and BLS Data Collected from Establishments Households Establishments various sources Universe Estimate Estimate Universe Frequency of Collection Quarterly for monthly data Monthly Semi-Annual Monthly Annual on a flow basis Frequency of Publication Quarterly & Annual Monthly Annual Estimate or Universe Count? UI covered Major Data employment & wages by Types Published industry Are Data Benchmarked? Major Uses Civilian labor force, Occupational employment, employment & unemployment, wages by area and Unemp. rate for the Unemp. rate for industry nation States & local areas Nonfarm job openings, hires, Workplace Injuries and separations and Illnesses by industry and region Workplace Fatalities MSAs, State, USA USA Cities & towns 25, 000+, County, LMA, MSA, State, Census Division & Region None Women Workers None Extensive Demographic Detail None Gender, age, race/ethnicity No, QCEW is a benchmark Yes, to QCEW No Yes, to CPS Yes, to CES Yes, to QCEW No, CFOI is a universe count Economic Indicator Workplace safety programs 4 -6 weeks after reference month 10 months 8 months Geographic County, MSAs, State, USA Detail Published Demographic Detail Published Nonfarm employment, hours, hourly earnings by industry Input from CPS, CES, Establishments UI Sample frame & benchmark Time from Reference Period 6 months or more to 1 st BLS Publication Economic Indicator USA- 3 weeks; States- 5 weeks; MSAs- 7 weeks Foreign Labor Certification, Economic Indicator, Planning training & Economic Indicator Allocation of funds educational programs 10 months 3 weeks States- 5 weeks; Areas- 7 weeks Census Region and USA and most States MSAs, State, USA

Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) www. bls. gov/oes 6

OES Survey OES collects detailed occupational and wage information by industry and area Semi-annual establishment survey Primarily a mail survey NOT a time series (no overlapping sample units to measure change) All 50 states Big change in 1996: wage collection for all States Plus DC, Guam, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands 7

OES Sample Design 1. 2 million establishments 3 -year collection cycle 400, 000 surveyed annually in two panels Estimates are based on the total sample of 1. 2 million collected over three years (6 panels) Wage data for 2. 5 previous years (5 panels) are updated using ECI-based factors (May and November) (ECI = Employment Cost Index) 8

OES Universe and Sampling Frame BLS draws sample twice a year (2 nd, 4 th quarters) QCEW is the sampling frame Includes establishments in Nonfarm industries Agricultural services Federal, State, and Local governments Stratified by Area, Industry and Size Class The larger an establishment, the more likely it will be included in the 3 -year OES sample Sample distribution across states was “fixed” since 1996; dynamic starting in 2010 9

Workers in scope of OES survey Full or part-time paid workers Workers on paid leave Workers assigned temporarily to other units Paid owners, officers, and staff of incorporated firms 10

Workers not in scope of OES survey Proprietors, owners, and partners of unincorporated firms Self-employed individuals Unpaid family workers Workers on unpaid leave Contractors & temporary help (not on the establishment’s payroll) 11

What is an OES Wage? Straight-time gross pay exclusive of premium pay. OES Wage Includes: Base Rate Cost-of-Living Allowances Guaranteed Pay Hazardous Duty Pay Portal-to-Portal Pay Incentive Pay, e. g. Commissions, Piece Rates & Production Bonuses Length-of-Service Allowances [Longevity Pay] Tips Deadheading Pay 12

OES Wage excludes: Attendance Bonuses Holiday Bonuses Back Pay Overtime Pay Draw Profit Sharing Premium Pay for Holidays/Weekends Relocation Allowances Severance Pay Shift Differentials Stock Bonuses Uniform Allowance Jury Duty Pay Meal & Lodging Allowances Merchandise Discounts Non-Production Bonuses 13

OES Survey Activities Draw sample from the universe Survey form production - by central printer Mail-out of survey forms - by central printer Data collection Data entry Data review and editing Estimation Publication 14

OES Data Collected Occupation and wage data of all employees for units sampled This information is stored listing the occupational employment distribution for each unit sampled by wage interval (or range) 15

November 2013 OES Wage Ranges Hourly Rates Annual Rates under $9. 25 under $19, 240 9. 25 - 11. 74 19, 240 - 24, 439 11. 75 - 14. 74 24, 440 - 30, 679 14. 75 - 18. 74 30, 680 - 38, 999 18. 75 - 23. 99 39, 000 - 49, 919 24. 00 - 30. 24 49, 920 - 62, 919 30. 25 - 38. 49 62, 920 - 80, 079 38. 50 - 48. 99 80, 080 - 101, 919 49. 00 - 61. 99 101, 920 - 128, 959 62. 00 - 78. 74 128, 960 - 163, 799 78. 75 - 99. 99 163, 800 - 207, 999 100. 00 and over 208, 000 and over (Note: Ranges for May 2013 and prior panels were lower) 16

OES Survey Forms Are specific to industries or groups of industries (~100 industry-specific versions) List occupations that occur in the surveyed industry (longest has 225 occupations) “Non form” reporting Collection by phone/email; files/printouts In 2009: Web-lite (downloaded fillable form) 17

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Non-form OES Reporting Some firms return printouts or electronic payroll files, which are coded by OES State or regional office staff Some data are collected/coded by regional office National Compensation Survey staff Many firms report data over the phone E-mail collection 2009: Web-lite (downloaded fillable form) 19

Standard Occupational Classification The standard occupational classification (SOC) is a system designed to: Classify all occupations in the economy, including private, public, and military occupations Provide a means to compare occupational data across government agencies Revised periodically: 2010 revision, finalized in 2009, implemented in 2010 Net new job count is 19; 2 of them “green” http: //www. bls. gov/soc 2010. pdf 2018 SOC revision in the works 20

SOC Classification Levels Broad categories lead to unique 6 -digit codes for each occupation: 22 Major groups ; 98 Minor groups; divided into. . . 450 Broad occupations; divided into. . . 800+ Detailed occupations 21

SOC Structure Example : Major Group: 25 -0000 Minor Group: 25 -2000 Education, Training, and Library Occupations Teachers, Primary, Secondary & Special Education Broad Occupation: 25 -2020 Teachers, Elementary & Middle School Detailed Occupation: 25 -2021 Teachers, Elementary 22

OES Data Produced by BLS Types of estimates Employment Wages (mean, median, 10 th, 25 th, 75 th 90 th wage rate percentiles) Industry Cross-industry and by 3 - and 4 -digit NAICS Examples: Cross Industry: By NAICS industry: All Nurses working in hospitals Geography National, State, MSAs Special wages for Foreign Labor Certification (FLC) Produced, but not published by BLS States use Estimates Delivery System (EDS) 23

Some Hawaii OES Data Source: Hawaii State Department of Labor and Industrial Relations, Research and Statistics Office 24

Users of OES Data § Employment and Training Administration’s Foreign Labor Certification program (FLC) § Job Seekers and Counselors § Vocational Educational Planners § Business Associations § Employers § BLS (for occupational projections) 25

Employment Projections Background 10 -year projections made every 2 years 2012 -22 projections cover 800 occupations and 300 industries BLS projections prepared at the national level only 26

Labor Force Change by Age Group: Projected 2012 -22 In thousands of people 16 -24 -2 823 25 -34 3 321 35 -44 45 -54 55 -64 65+ 2 076 -3 454 3 607 5 749 27

Employment Outlook: 2012 -22 Industry Employment 28

Employment Millions of jobs 149, 8 134, 4 131, 0 2002 2012 Projected 2022 Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment 29

Employment Growth Projections M nt y ty ou i. C au i Co ou aw ai i. C ul u on ol H un nt y SA w te i. S ta ai H aw M id e s at e St d ni te U 10, 5% 9, 7% H 10, 8% 15, 4% 15, 1% 14, 2% Ka ua 18, 0% 16, 0% 14, 0% 12, 0% 10, 0% 8, 0% 6, 0% 4, 0% 2, 0% 0, 0% 2012 -2022 2010 -2020 30 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Hawaii State Department of Labor and Industrial Relations, Research and Statistics Office

Employment Change by Industry Sector: Projected 2012 -22 Thousands of wage and salary jobs Health care and social assistance Professional and business services Construction Leisure and hospitality Retail trade State and local government Financial activities Educational services Other services Wholesale trade Transportation and warehousing Mining Utilities Information Federal government Manufacturing 1 622, 1 1 289, 2 1 090, 9 929, 0 751, 0 675, 3 648, 9 470, 4 327, 3 121, 2 -56, 4 -65, 2 -407, 5 -549, 5 4 994, 1 3 482, 8 Service providing Goods producing 31

Rate of Change in Employment by Industry Sector: Projected 2012 -22 Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment Health care and social assistance Construction Educational services Professional and business services Mining Other services Financial activities Leisure and hospitality Wholesale trade Transportation and warehousing Retail trade State and local government Information Manufacturing Utilities Federal government 0, 8% 0, 7% 0, 5% -0, 2% -0, 5% -1, 1% -1, 6% 2, 6% 1, 9% 1, 8% 1, 4% 1, 0% 0, 9% Total nonagricultural wage and salary annual growth= 1. 0% Service providing Goods producing 32

Employment Outlook: 2012 -22 Occupational Employment 33

Percent Change vs. Numeric Change Percent employment growth in two occupations, projected 2012 -22 33, 6% Audiologists Retail salespersons 9, 8% Numeric employment growth in two occupations, projected 2012 -22, in thousands Audiologists Retail salespersons 4, 3 434, 7 34

Percent Change in Employment by Major Occupational Group Average= 10. 8% Projected 2012 -22 28, 1% Healthcare support Healthcare practitioners and technical 21, 5% Construction and extraction 21, 4% Personal care and service 20, 9% Computer and mathematical Community and social service 18, 0% 17, 2% Business and financial operations 12, 5% Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance 12, 5% Education, training, and library 11, 1% Legal 10, 7% Life, physical, and social science 10, 1% (Continued on next slide) 35

Percent Change in Employment by Major Occupational Group (Continued) Projected 2012 -22 Installation, maintenance, and repair 9, 6% Food preparation and serving related 9, 4% Transportation and material moving 8, 6% Protective service 7, 9% Architecture and engineering 7, 3% Sales and related 7, 3% Management 7, 2% Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media 7, 0% Office and administrative support 6, 8% Production Farming, fishing, and forestry 0, 8% -3. 4% Average, all occupations = 10. 8% 36

Employment Change by Major Occupational Group Thousands of jobs, projected 2012 -22 Healthcare practitioners and technical Office and administrative support Construction and extraction Healthcare support Personal care and service Food preparation and serving related Sales and related Education, training, and library Business and financial operations Transportation and material moving Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance 1 732, 9 1 534, 0 1 301, 9 1 155, 8 1 122, 9 1 101, 8 1 095, 5 1 015, 8 898, 1 790, 6 691, 0 (Continued on next slide) 37

Employment Change by Major Occupational Group Thousands of jobs, projected 2012 -22 (Continued) 685, 8 Computer and mathematical 636, 6 Management 531, 2 Installation, maintenance, and repair 408, 8 Community and social service Protective service 263. 0 Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media 180, 6 Architecture and engineering 179, 6 Legal 132, 9 Life, physical, and social science 125, 7 Production Farming, fishing, and forestry -32, 2 75, 6 38

Employment Growth vs. Replacement Needs Numeric employment growth in two occupations, projected 2012 -22, in thousands 526, 8 Registered nurses Cashiers 86, 5 Job openings for two occupations, projected 2012 -22, in thousands Registered nurses Cashiers 86, 5 From growth Replacement needs 526, 8 525, 7 1 443, 4 1, 052. 6 1, 530. 39

Job Openings by Major Occupational Group Thousands of job openings, projected 2012 -22 6 401, 6 Office and administrative support Sales and related 5 599, 6 Food preparation and serving related 5 509, 7 Healthcare practitioners and technical 3 378, 2 Transportation and material moving 2 964, 0 Education, training, and library 2 896, 8 Management 2 397, 2 Construction and extraction 2 352, 6 Business and financial operations 2 340, 9 Personal care and service 2 286, 3 Production 1 881, 1 Growth (Continued on next slide) 40

Job Openings by Major Occupational Group Thousands of job openings, projected 2012 -22 Healthcare support 1 938, 4 Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance 1 825, 5 Installation, maintenance, and repair 1 809, 9 Computer and mathematical Protective service Community and social service 1 308, 5 1 146, 8 962, 0 Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media 783, 3 Architecture and engineering 758, 5 Life, physical, and social science (Continued) Growth 486, 7 Legal 333, 6 Farming, fishing, and forestry 233, 3 41

Fastest Growing Occupations Median annual wages, May 2012 Percent change, projected 2012 -22 Industrial-organizational psychologists 53, 4% $83, 580 Personal care aides 48, 8% $19, 910 Home health aides 48, 5% $20, 820 Insulation workers, mechanical 46, 7% $39, 170 Interpreters and translators 46, 1% $45, 430 Diagnostic medical sonographers 46, 0% $65, 860 Helpers--brickmasons, blockmasons, stonemasons, and tile and marble setters 43, 0% $28, 220 Occupational therapy assistants 42, 6% $53, 240 Genetic counselors 41, 2% $56, 800 Physical therapist assistants 41, 0% $52, 160 42

Occupations with the Largest Job Growth Thousands of jobs, projected 2012 -22 Personal care aides Registered nurses Median annual wages, May 2012 580, 8 $19, 910 526, 8 $65, 470 Retail salespersons 434, 7 $21, 110 Home health aides 424, 2 $20, 820 Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food 421, 9 $18, 260 Nursing assistants 312, 2 $24, 420 Secretaries and administrative assistants, except legal, medical, and executive 307, 8 $32, 410 Customer service representatives 298, 7 $30, 580 Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners 280, 0 $22, 320 Construction laborers 259, 8 $29, 990 43

Occupations with the Most Job Openings Thousands of job openings, projected 2012 -22 1, 955. 7 Retail salespersons Median annual wages, May 2012 $21, 110 Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food 1, 555. 7 $18, 260 Cashiers 1, 530. 0 $18, 970 Waiters and waitresses 1, 268. 3 $18, 540 Registered nurses Customer service representatives Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand 1, 052. 6 941. 6 922. 5 $65, 470 $30, 580 $23, 890 Office clerks, general 810. 9 $27, 470 Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners 717. 3 $22, 320 Personal care aides Growth 666. 0 Replacement needs $19, 910 44

Fastest Declining Occupations Median annual wages, May 2012 $35, 250 $44, 920 $24, 310 Percent change, projected 2012 -22 -43, 3% -42, 0% -35, 3% $53, 090 -31, 8% $32, 880 -31, 6% $53, 090 -29, 8% $33, 020 -27, 1% $24, 050 -27, 1% $56, 490 -26, 8% $19, 830 -26, 5% Fall Sho Loc ers e omo Post mac tive al hine firer serv oper Post s ice ator al mail s serv Log sort and ice gra ers, tend cler ders Text proc ers ks and ile esso Sem scal cutti rs, icon ers ng and duct mac proc or hine essi proc Post sett ng esso al ers, Moti mac rs serv oper on hine ice ator pict oper mail s, ure ator carri and proj s ers tend ecti ers onis 45

Occupations with the Largest Employment Declines Farm ers, ranc hers, Median annual Thousands of jobs, projected and 2012 -22 wages, May 2012 other Post $69, 300 agric al -179, 9 al ultur servi $56, 490 al ce -79, 2 Data ce man mail entry Sewi mail $28, 010 agers carri Farm -54, 2 keye ng sorte ers work rs mac rs, $21, 270 ers -41, 7 hine proc and oper esso $53, 090 labor Moldi -38, 6 ators rs, Wor Rese ers, ng, and d rvati $18, 670 crop, core -29, 2 proc on nurs maki essin esso Post and $35, 270 ery, ng, -26, 2 g rs al trans and mac and servi port gree $53, 090 casti -21, 3 typis hine ce ation nhou ng oper ts clerk ticke se mach $32, 400 -19, 5 ators st ine agen $28, 630 -19, 2 sette ts rs, and oper trave 46

Hawaii: Short-term Forecasts 47

Contact Information Dennis Reid Assistant Regional Commissioner San Francisco 415 -625 -2260 reid. dennis@bls. gov