L CUS Lewis Carroll meets Franz Kafka Parliamentary

L CUS Lewis Carroll meets Franz Kafka Parliamentary Boundary Review: Cheshire Mollington, 14 October 2011 Adrian Bailey UKelect. wordpress. com

The Commission’s proposals

Labour’s version

Labour’s glennmanders Wirral Runcorn Northwich Chester

Why are people issuing proposals that make them look stupid? • “The Commission use district wards as the smallest unit for designing constituencies and do not divide wards between constituencies. ” (Guide to the 5 th General Review) • The 5% law

The Law versus The Rule • minimum 72, 810, maximum 80, 473 • Once ward size reaches 8, 000, redistricting is impossible: • 9 x 8, 000 = 72, 000, 10 x 8, 000 = 80, 000 • 8 x 9, 000 = 72, 000, 9 x 9, 000 = 81, 000 • 7 x 10, 000 = … • “You do the math. ”

51 “ 2010” wards

The Cheshire conundrum Ø 52 wards (including Heswall or Eastham) Øaverage size 10, 500 Ø 4 seats at 73, 500 Ø 3 seats at 84, 000

Chunking versus Tacking “So far as is practicable no county or any part of a county shall be included in a constituency which includes the whole or part of any other county. ” Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986

• • Wallasey 66, 845 Birkenhead 66, 452 Wirral West 56, 085 Wirral South 57, 801 2006

• “The BCE seeks to avoid dividing wards between constituencies wherever possible. ” • “The BCE’s view is that, in the absence of exceptional and compelling circumstances it would not be appropriate to divide wards in cases where it is possible to construct constituencies that meet the statutory electorate range without dividing them. ” Guide to the Sixth Review

The Choice • The Commission’s and the Parties’ convenience or • Sensible constituencies that respect boundaries and maintain local ties

From the ridiculous to the extreme…

My proposal (1)

(Back to the 90’s)

split wards Alderley: Alderley Edge > Macc Fulshaw > Tatton Doddington: Haslington > Congleton Cholmondeley: Acton & Audlem > C&N Mickle Trafford: Elton > Ellesmere Port

163 “ 2004” ward

My proposal (1)

It’s not rocket science Macc Tatton Congleton Crewe Chester Eddisbury Ellesmere Port 78, 204 78, 054 78, 384 78, 710 77, 987 78, 198 77, 913

And for my next trick… • A proposal using the permanent “ 2011” wards

My proposal (2)

The boundary paradox The law says that if you use boundaries you have to use the 2010 boundaries, but the law doesn’t say you have to use those boundaries.

What was that again? • “Any division of wards between constituencies would be likely to break local ties, disrupt political party organisations, and cause difficulties for Electoral Registration and Returning Officers. ” Guide to the Sixth Review

98 “ 2011” wards

Seats based on new wards • • Macc 78, 424 Tatton 79, 015 Congleton 77, 869 Crewe & Nantwich 77, 589 Eddisbury 79, 363 Chester 79, 447 Ellesmere Port 77, 508

My proposal (2) no split wards

I know you’re wondering… • What about Poynton? Halton?

Good old chunking: electorate ÷ 76641 • • • Cheshire+Wirral Warrington Liverpool Sefton+Knowsley St Helens+Halton Stockport+Tameside Oldham Rochdale Manchester+Salford+Trafford 10. 12 2. 00 4. 12 4. 14 3. 01 5. 04 2. 09 2. 05 8. 81

My plan

Conclusion • Let’s get the balance right • Give people the right tools to do the job.

L CUS Adrian Bailey ukelect. wordpress. com

Dedicated to The Boundary Commissioners • Philip Sales – chancery judge • David Elvin – planning lawyer • Neil Pringle – former chief executive of Herefordshire Council