Kyoto and Beyond Report on Durban COP 17
Kyoto and Beyond Report on Durban COP 17 The 6 th installment in an ongoing series on multilateral agreements related to climate change www. isciences. com January 31, 2012
Introduction Kyoto and Beyond is a series of presentations on the evolving international climate treaty process which began with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Report on Durban COP 17 is a summary of the process of negotiations that transpired during the Conference of the Parties 17 (COP 17), Nov. 28 -Dec. 11, 2011. Other presentations in this series include*: § Kyoto and Beyond: the Evolution of Multilateral Agreements on Climate Change (2008) § Report on Copenhagen COP 15 (2009) § Road to Cancun COP 16 (2010) § Report on Cancun COP 16 (2011) § Road to Durban COP 17 (2011) * Available at http: //www. isciences. com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond. html
Contents COP 17 Overview The Durban Platform Action at the Conference Opinions on the Outcome Climate Clock Keeps Ticking Looking Ahead
COP 17 Overview COP 17 was held in Durban, South Africa from Nov. 28 to Dec. 11, 2011* with 194 participating nations. The unpredictable COP 17 began with a lack of optimism due to high stakes – the future of the Kyoto Protocol, of the UN process, and of the Green Climate Fund. The lack of cooperation between countries created moods described as “sour. ” South Africa’s President, Jacob Zuma, opened the talks insisting COP 17 must not fail. “Given the urgency, governments need to strive to find solutions here in Durban. Change and solution are always possible. ” – Jacob Zuma Image credit: http: //www. cop 17 cmp 7/durban. com Click here to read Zuma’s opening address * Scheduled to conclude Dec. 9, a series of disputes caused a temporary suspension, making it the longest COP on record, lasting 36 hours beyond schedule.
COP 17 Overview Objectives § Determine future of the Kyoto Protocol (2 nd commitment period) and successor to the Protocol, a legally binding instrument post-2012 § Discuss progress and implementation of mechanisms created at COP 16, and their funding, particularly the Green Climate Fund § Review country commitments to: global financing, emissions reductions, development and transfer of green technology. § Discuss the financial/technological needs of Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and methods for adapting to current effects of climate change; and discuss equitable access to sustainable development for Developed and Developing countries. Click here for achievements at COP 16 Cancun.
COP 17 Overview Controversy In Durban controversy emerged between developed and developing countries as groups discussed divisive topics. “Developed countries… built their economies on dirty energy. So they’re chiefly responsible for the greenhouse gases … Yet the worst of the climate change impacts are being felt in least developed countries. ” – Greenpeace Africa Image credit: Wikimedia Commons During early stages of the talks the EU proposed a road map for future agreement but disputes continued, causing Zuma and COP 17 Chair, Maite Nkoana. Mashabane, to urge nations to find a balance by thinking beyond national interests. The disagreements caused a temporary suspension of the talks. It was not until the final hours, nearly a day and a half over schedule, that an agreement was reached.
COP 17 Overview Success on Common Responsibility In spite of the many controversies at COP 17 an agreement was reached, and notably, a principle of common responsibility was formulated. "We've managed to bring all the major emitters into a road map leading to a global overarching legal agreement … For the first time we've seen major economies, normally cautious, commit to take the action demanded by science. “ – Chris Huhne, the UK's Energy and Climate Change Secretary For the first time in the UNFCCC process it was acknowledged that both developed and developing countries must be responsible to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Image credit: http: //www. guardian. co. uk/environment/2011/ dec/12/durban-climate-deal-verdict The negotiations advanced: § implementation of the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol, § the Bali Action Plan, and the Cancun Agreements, § a decision by Parties to adopt a universal legal agreement on climate change as soon as possible, and no later than 2015.
COP 17 Overview Important Players Christiana Figueres, chair of the UNFCCC, strove for success throughout COP 17. She believes the outcome is insufficient but is an important next step. “There is no Plan B, just as there is no Planet B. ” Jacob Zuma, President of South Africa, opened up the conference stating that nothing was impossible. He urged nations to put aside domestic interests and instilled urgency to take action. “In the developing world and Africa, climate change is a matter of life and death. ” Connie Hedegaard, European Union Climate Change Commissioner, facilitated a union between the EU and the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) to push for a legally binding agreement. “… it is not enough to save the process. We also need to save the climate. ” Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, Elected Chair of COP 17, entered into COP 17 making promises for success. When disagreements stalled the talks, Mashabane called for a suspension and a redraft. “The decisions that we have taken here are truly historical. ” Jayanthi Natajan, India’s Environment Minister, challenged rich countries to ratify a 2 nd commitment period and make promised payments to developing countries before negotiating a new deal. “It is time that the developed countries stepped up to fulfill their part of the legal commitment. ” Image credits: Figueres, Zuma, Hedegaard and Mashabane: Wikimedia Commons; Natajan: http: //smehorizon. sulekha. com/
The Durban Platform The agreement package reached at the summit includes “The Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, ” a road map towards a new treaty. § The Platform notes a goal of keeping global temperature increase to 1. 5 C or 2. 0 C above preindustrial levels and notes that current commitments are insufficient to reach that goal. “I think everybody understands we’re § Both developed and developing nations will have to negotiate a treaty, a “legal instrument or legal outcome” by 2015 that will reduce carbon emissions. talking about a legal agreement … that we have … the major developing countries agreeing to do that, is significant. ” – Todd Stern, US Climate Envoy § The new treaty will go into effect by 2020 and, unlike the Kyoto Protocol, will require all countries to make emissions cuts. This is a significant departure from the previously embedded “common but differentiated responsibilities” principle. Meanwhile, the Kyoto Protocol will be extended for a 2 nd commitment period of either 5 or 8 years for nations still bound by it and will end once the new treaty has been ratified and implemented, either by Dec. 31, 2017 or Dec. 31, 2020. Click here to read the text of the Durban Platform
Other Decisions Adopted at COP 17 Green Climate Fund Agreement reached on basic governance structure for Green Climate Fund. Adaptation Committee finalized; membership, authorities, and work methods decided. Voluntary process established for LDCs to create National Adaptation Plans. Monitoring, Reporting, and Verifying (MRV) Country guidelines for biennial reports developed; review methods finalized; more transparency still needed on emissions reductions pledges. Greenhouse Gases Nitrogen trifluoride (NF 3) added to original list of six Kyoto Protocol greenhouse gases due to global warming potential (17, 000 greater than CO 2) and growing use in microchip and solar panel manufacture. Carbon Capture and CSS policy refined on long term liability, permanence of sequestration, and Sequestration (CSS) risk of leakage (COP 16 Cancun added CSS projects as qualifying projects under Clean Development Mechanism). However, action on REDD+ was suspended until COP 18. View official text of decisions adopted by COP 17 and CMP 7: http: //unfccc. int/2860. php
Action at the Conference Protests Prior to the start of COP 17, rumors circulated about possible protests during the meeting causing Mashabane to heighten security. Image credit: Erin Conway – globalpost. com One protest targeted a permitted, peaceful march. Protestors disguised as volunteers “physically threatened and attacked activists. ” Another protest known as “Occupy COP 17” consisted of SIDS, environmental activists, and youth delegates who protested that the delay in climate change action would mean death in Africa. Image credit: twitter. com/Occupy. COP 17 In yet another protest Chief of Greenpeace Kumi Naidoo was escorted from the venue in handcuffs after leading a march on the main plenary session. Naidoo’s aim was to inject some urgency into the talks. “I’ve stopped settling for what is deemed ‘politically feasible’ by obstructionists and started asking for what is morally required and scientifically necessary. ”– Middlebury College student, Abigail Borah, after being ushered out of the convention for interrupting a speech by the lead US negotiator.
Action at the Conference Country Dynamics – Developed versus Developing A split in opinions on major issues emerged between developed and developing countries. Image credit: Wikimedia Commons Representatives from developing countries stressed that developed countries were not taking climate change seriously as an international issue. “Durban could be where the greatest crime against humanity is committed. The blind greed and selfinterest of developed countries could literally pass a death sentence to the people of Africa. ” – Nnimmo Bassey, chair of Friends of Earth International Developing countries felt urgency for results at COP 17 as, for many of these countries, climate change has become a significant threat.
Action at the Conference Country Dynamics – China and the US Many attendants felt the two biggest global emitters, the US and China, were impeding negotiations with a “ping-pong game. ” Initially, neither country would commit to legally binding reductions. A stand-off developed regarding who would concede first. China eventually hinted at readiness to commit to a legally binding agreement, but many were skeptical about the country’s meaning of “legally binding. ” Image credit: Wikimedia Commons The US did not follow suit, and many felt it was held back by domestic politics where climate change is a controversial issue. Connie Hedegaard noted that the two were taking on “an almost unbearable responsibility” since the consequences of inaction are “catastrophic. ”
Action at the Conference Country Dynamics – LCDs and SIDS The negotiations were especially significant for Least Developed Countries (LCDs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), many of whom are already experiencing the effects of climate change. These nations advocated for the continuation of the Protocol, with the addition of the most prominent developing nations being bound by reductions. LDCs and SIDS pushed for limiting temperature rise to 1. 5 C. Karl Hood, chairman of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), stated that accepting anything higher would be accepting “total annihilation. ” The EU teamed with LDCs and AOSIS to push key players towards a successful outcome. This coalition helped dispense with the “firewall” between developed and developing nations. Image credit: http: //wwwnc. cdc. gov/travel/destinations/comoros. htm It is estimated that by 2025, 10% of the population of Comoros will be displaced by rising sea levels and over $1 billion worth of infrastructure will be destroyed.
Action at the Conference Country Dynamics – Canada, Japan, and Russia Canada, accounting for 1. 8% of global emissions, withdrew from the Protocol during COP 17*. Canada had committed to reducing emissions 6% by 2012, but actual emissions have risen by 30% subjecting it to penalty fees of $14 billion for failing to meet the target. “I regret Canada’s withdrawal and am surprised over its timing. ” – Christiana Figueres Japan, accounting for 4% of global emissions, refused to sign on to a 2 nd commitment. “The Kyoto Protocol is not the right path, " chief Japanese climate envoy Masahiko Horie said in Durban. Japan would consider a new global deal if the framework was all-inclusive. Russia, accounting for 5. 67% of global emissions, was the only country to speak in full support of Canada’s withdrawal from the Protocol. Like Japan, Russia also refused to support a 2 nd commitment period. Image credits: Canada: virtualamericas. net, Japan: cires. colorado. edu, Russia: vygotsky. ced. appstate. edu Emissions data: http: //www. businessday. co. za/articles/Content. aspx? id=160299 * Article 27 of the Protocol allows any country to withdraw three years after the Protocol is in force.
Action at the Conference Disagreement Forces a Suspension The high level of disagreement during the talks combined with backlash about the proposed deal caused the temporary suspension of COP 17. Developed vs Developing U, SIDS, LDCs Backlash E COP 17 Temporarily Suspended The crux of the dispute was how binding the legal wording would be in an eventual agreement. The current draft spoke of a "legal framework. " SIDS, LDCs, and EU complained that this lacked ambition and committed parties to nothing. On Friday Dec. 9 Mashabane suspended talks, demanding a redraft of Platform language. This was a gambit. If agreement was not reached COP 17 would be a total failure.
Action at the Conference The Final Hours – A Call to Action Mashabane’s winning tactic – a final huddle on the floor of the Plenary session at 4 am Sunday morning Dec. 11 broke the logjam. Twenty-six nations came together seeking a solution. India held out over concern about the revised phrasing “legally binding. ” With EU, LDCs, and SIDS concurrence, the phrasing was changed to “legal instrument or legal outcome” to India’s satisfaction. At last an acceptable proposal was reached – the “Durban package. ” Image credit: http: //www. allvoices. com/ The “Durban package” included: § 2 nd KP commitment period; § a decision on the AWG–LCA*; § a decision on the Green Climate Fund; § a new instrument, the Durban Platform. Mashabane asked all parties to adopt each of the decisions in the agreement without further debate or amendments. * Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention
Action at the Conference The Final Hours – Questioning the Process Mashabane’s “take it or leave it” proposition was not embraced by all. Some expressed concern that the decisions lacked transparency and inclusivity, therefore not supporting the multilateral process. There was disappointment from some developing countries that their amendments were not included in the package of decisions. “I have been very patient in this room listening to developed countries putting ideas forward… and then developing country parties are not allowed to talk about what they think about this future we are heading to. . . So can you explain please what stage of democracy in this process we are in? ” – Claudia Caldera, Venezuela’s Climate Envoy Mashabane noted their disappointment, then resumed the COP 17 session to adopt the decisions without further amendment. Consensus moved the “Durban package” to final adoption.
Opinions on the Outcome Positive The agreements at COP 17 “represented an important advance in the work of climate change. ” – Ban Ki Moon, UN Secretary General “The outcome at Durban is a coup for Africa. Issues that had taken so long to resolve have been resolved on our soil. ” – Jacob Zuma, President of South Africa “Very, very pleased. It’s in the upper range of what we hoped for. We’re pleased both with the substantive outcome and also the agreement on this process. ” – Erik Solheim, Norway’s Climate Change Minister “We’re happy that this major success was achieved, despite so many different points of view. ” – Jayanthi Natarajan, Indian Environment Minister Negative Regarding COP 16 promises made on limiting global temperature rise to 2 C: “Here in Durban, they have utterly failed to live up to that promise. ” – Jim Leape, Head of WWF International “Delaying real action until 2020 is a crime of global proportions. ” - Nnimmo Bassey, Chair of Friends of the Earth International “The deal that has been done in Durban is not good for the future of the planet, or the poorest and most vulnerable people. Negotiators have sent a message to the world’s hungry: ‘Let them eat carbon’. ” – Oxfam statement “We shouldn’t be under any illusion – the outcome of Durban leaves us with the prospect of being legally bound to a world of 4 C warming. ” – Keith Allottt, Head of Climate Change, WWF UK http: //www. rtcc. org/policy/speaking-out-on-durban-cop 17 -in-quotes/
Climate Clock Keeps Ticking Meanwhile, the world continues on a pathway to warming of over 3 C. On December 11, 2011, post-COP 17, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) released a statement that, even with the agreement, the world is continuing on a pathway to warming of over 3 C accompanied by extreme weather. According to CAT, the warming will “bring the world close to several potential global-scale tipping points. ” These include: Dieback of the Amazon rainforest Algae and sea grass replacing coral reefs Irreversible loss of Greenland ice sheets Risk of release of methane hydrates from ocean floor (further adding to warming) § Thawing of permafrost § § Image credit: http: //www. climateactiontracker. org/ Click here to view CAT’s infographic on changes due to temperature rise.
Climate Clock Keeps Ticking COP 17’s outcome falls short of what is required to have even a 50/50 chance of capping global temperature rise at 2 degrees. And, NASA climatologist James Hansen states that even 2 degrees is too much. This graph created by CAT shows the “best estimate” of the effects of the current reduction pledges. “The ultimate objective of the Convention … is … stabilization of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change…– Article 2, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 1992
Looking Ahead UNFCCC events to support multilateral negotiations § COP 18 in Qatar, Nov. 26 – Dec. 7, 2012 § Bonn Climate Change Conference, May 2012 § Protocol’s 2 nd commitment period begins, 2013 § New treaty finalized, 2015 § New treaty ratified and implemented, either Dec. 31, 2017 or Dec. 31, 2020 (the end of the Protocol’s 2 nd commitment period)
Conclusion The Durban Platform represents a significant departure from prior treaties: both developed and developing countries must reduce emissions. However, confidence in the multilateral climate treaty process remains low and progress remains slow. Though developments in Durban push towards global alignment, the new paradigm does not preclude and may be better suited to support, regional coalitions that advance UNFCCC targets using different approaches. “Let’s not get trapped in a Catch-22 – business waiting for government, government waiting for business. Business has plenty to go on – the megatrend is clear. We must decarbonize our economy. ” – Christiana Figueres, Oct. 2011 Meanwhile, society is evolving its own responses. Private sector carbon-neutrality initiatives, shifts in insurance and investment sectors, and societal adaptation will surely influence the future multilateral process. Whether these changes will be adequate and soon enough to avoid “dangerous interference with the climate system” is the big question. “Kyoto and Beyond” will keep you informed as these important events continue to unfold.
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Citation When referencing this slideshow please use the following citation: ISCIENCES, L. L. C. Report on Durban. A slideshow; 6 th installment in the series: Kyoto and Beyond. January 27, 2012. Ann Arbor, Michigan. www. isciences. com.
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