KURZWEILS LAW OF ACCELERATING RETURNS TAYLOR BONILLA EME

KURZWEIL'S LAW OF ACCELERATING RETURNS TAYLOR BONILLA EME 2040

SUMMARY • Evolutionary systems and processes tend to increase exponentially (this law refers to technological development) • The rate of each stage in these processes and will accelerate due to an increase in knowledge and from previous stages.

EVOLUTIONARY PROCESS • “Evolution applies positive feedback, “The more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage. ” –Ray Kurzweil • Each stage of innovation requires revamped knowledge and methods from previous stages.

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH • Rate becomes more rapid in proportion to the growing total number • Methods from each stage are used to innovate and create tools for the future stages.

HISTORY OF TECHNOLOGY • Once major technological innovation happened, the rate of change sped up because we had the technology and knowledge it took to create newer things faster.

REVOLUTIONS AND COMPUTING • Technological revolution is accelerating because we can use methods from each stage to revolutionize the next. • Technology comes faster because the amount of time between revolutions is decreasing.

SINGULARITY • A hypothetical point at which technological growth becomes uncontrollable, resulting in vast changes to human civilization • It will be the time of superintelligence.

IMPLICATIONS AND PREDICTIONS • Merger between biological and non-biological intelligence. • Machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence. • Ultra high levels of intelligence will surpass the speed of light. • Rate of innovation will become so fast that we will no longer be able to follow it.