K 2 The Integrated Earth System Model at

K 2 -地球システム統合モデル開発 地球システム統合モデル The Integrated Earth System Model at the FRSGC (being developed) radiation cloud distribution transport Climate (CCSR/NIES AGCM 5. 7) SST Aerosol (SPRI mineral Sea Salt Ocean (an NPZD-type model) radiation transport production heterogeneous reaction DMS dust, OC Chemistry (CHA CO 2 NMHCs Land Surface (MATSIRO, Sim-CYCLE)

Aerosol simulation in CHASER with SPRINTARS -- as a part of the Kyousei integrated earth system modelling -- Climate impacts & interactions Ozone CH 4 OC SO 4 -- Chemical Reaction BC Soil Dust Surface Sea Salt

Aerosol simulation in CHASER-SPRINTARS 硫酸塩 SO 42(Sulfate) Chemical production by OH, O 3, and H 2 O 2 calculated in the chemistry component (present configuration). ※雲水酸性度(cloud p. H)の計算向上のため、ammonia (NH 3) と dust(Ca 2+) による雲水の中和過程を導入する。 ※DMSの emission は ocean component とcouple？ 硝酸塩 NO 3(Nitrates) 熱力学平衡モデルでエアロゾル相のアンモニウム、硫酸 塩とともに計算。(SO 42 -- NO 3 - -NH 4+ system)。 粗大モードなので direct effect は大きくない？ 炭素系 (OC/EC) (Carbonaceous) 基本的には SPRINTARS [Takemura et al. , 2000] モデル に準ずる。 植物起源テルペン類(Terpenes)の酸化による OC の生成 は化学過程と結合する。(Terpns + O 3 ) 土壌性（ダスト） SPRINTARS モデルに準ずる。 海塩粒子 SPRINTARS モデルに準ずる。 ※ coupled with radiation and heterogeneous reaction computation: すべてのエアロゾ ルについて、エアロゾル表面積密度に換算した上、不均一反応に反映させる。

硫酸塩(SO 42 -)・硝酸塩(NO 3 -)・アンモニウム(NH 4+)の複合系の表現 気相⇔エアロゾル平衡熱力学モデル(aerosol thermodynamics model) ISORROPIA [Nenes and Pandis, 1998] の組み込み。 T, RH sulfate(SO 42 -) ・Total nitrate (HNO 3 + NO 3 -) ・Total ammonia (NH 3 + NH 4+) ・HNO 3(gas) ・NH 3(gas) ・SO 42 -(aerosol) ・NO 3 -(aerosol) ・NH 4+(aerosol) ※chloride+sodium(海塩)、dust (鉱物粒子)の影響も考慮可能。 To be reflected on the direct and indirect effects of aerosols

CHASER 気体エミッション +メタン +Methanol Annual total (/yr) based on the EDGAR NOx Tg. N CO Tg. CO C 2 H 6 Tg. C C 3 H 8 Tg. C C 2 H 4 Tg. C C 3 H 6 Tg. C 産業/交通 23. 10 337. 40 3. 15 5. 76 2. 00 森林火災 9. 65 889. 40 4. 50 2. 62 植物 0. 00 1. 20 海洋 0. 00 土壌 5. 50 雷 航空機 合計 Acetone Tg. C ONMV Tg. C Isoprene Tg. C Terpenes Tg. C 0. 85 1. 02 29. 20 0. 00 14. 10 6. 39 7. 17 8. 55 0. 00 1. 60 4. 30 1. 20 11. 20 20. 00 400. 00 102. 00 0. 11 8. 28 10. 10 0. 00 2. 00 0. 00 5. 00 0. 55 0. 00 0. 00 43. 80 1226. 8 8. 95 10. 09 28. 68 18. 54 19. 39 59. 75 400. 00 102. 00 (Sulfate simulation) ü SO 2 : 71. 83 Tg. S(産業), 2. 64 Tg. S(森林火災), 0. 085 Tg. S (航空機), 4. 80 Tg. S(火山) ü DMS: 14. 8 Tg. S (海洋) The seasonal timing of biomass burning emissions is simulated by using satellite derived hot-spot data.

CHASER + SPRINTARS Config. file

CHASER + SPRINTARS calculation flow Aerosol Radiation CCN : LSCOND [SPRINTARS] Aerosol emission & verti. Diff. for (1) Dust (2) S-salt (3) Carbon [SPRINTARS] Wet depo. for aerosols : precipi. p. H [CHASER] Mode raii, Surface area density, CCNs [CHASER]

NO 3 - SO 42 -

CHASER+SPRINTARS 計算コストの見積もり 8 PE 1年積分平均CPU時間: T 42 L 32, NTR=45 エアロゾルのdepositionを含む 平均ベクトル化率＝ 98%、平均ベクトル長＝ 192 On ES-L(4 -note: 32 PE): 3. 4 hours/year with ‘hopt’

KISSME 構築の流れ的な図 GDVM導入 You are here

Evolution of regional ozone levels (ppbv) for four latitude ranges. Zonal mean EXP 1 EXP 2 (warming) Reduced O 3 increases Enhanced O 3 increases

climate-change impacts on stratosphere-troposphere exchange Net stratospheric O 3 input to the troposphere Exp 2: +climate change Exp 1 +83% Surface air temperature rises Sudo et al. [2003]

Exp. 1 : H 2 O 2 濃度場の変化 1990 A 2 -2050 2 -3 倍 A 2 -2100

Research Plan (at the present) ① Future projection of tropospheric ozone and sulfate aerosol using CHASER on ES with a focus on future climate change impacts (IPCC SRES scenarios: A 2, A 1, B 1) : completed. ② Hystorical simulations (1970 -2000) of tropospheric chemistry involving ozone (full transient simulation with NCEP met. variables) ③ Development of chemistry-aerosol coupled climate model with CHASER and SPRINTARS (+ISORROPIA): mostly finished and under evaluation. ④ Source attribution of global tropospheric O 3 and CO using the tagged tracer method. ⑤ Contribution to Irie-san’s studies with satellite dataset. ① Long term equillibrium simulations (~50 years) to estimate the impact of tropospheric ozone increases (in past/future) and aerosol changes on climate: climate forcing.

硫酸エアロゾルの時間発展 (Exp 1/2) 硫酸塩全球総量(Tg. S) For both Exp 1 and 2… ü Increases in H 2 O 2 and OH For Exp 2… ü Increases in cloud water ü Changes in precipitation 人為起源SO 2エミッション(Tg. S/yr)