Journalism and Mass Communication 614 Communication and Public

Journalism and Mass Communication 614: Communication and Public Opinion Professor: Dhavan Shah Teaching Assistant: Yini Zhang

Purpose Statement ¨ Examining the concept of public opinion ¨ Integrated approach to learning about: – Public opinion processes (analytical) – Public opinion research (applied) ¨ Learning by doing – Lab sections not only involve discussion of lectures but also include application of ideas • Project involving analysis of opinion trends

So What is Public Opinion?

Class will focus on ¨ (a) the philosophical and normative assumptions surrounding public opinion ¨ (b) theoretical approaches to studying public opinion formation and change ¨ (c) the research processes involved in measuring opinion and understanding its change over time ¨ (d) the relationship of the public to polling, news information and marketing communications.

Topical Outline ¨ Philosophical, normative assumptions – Covering Journalism and Strategic Comm. ¨ Theoretical approaches to understanding – Psychological and Sociological Orientation ¨ Role of Media and Communication – News, Entertainment, Ad Effects and Perceptions of Influence ¨ Processes and Procedures of Studying Public Opinion – Content Analysis, Survey Research, and Experimental Methods ¨ Marketing Communication and Public Opinion – Overconsumption, and Political Consumerism

Why Comm and Public Opinion? ¨ Public opinion as a communicative process – Public opinion as expression of views – Public opinion as outcome of media influence – Public opinion influence on communication ¨ Centrality of public opinion to: – Mass communication professions • Journalism, advertising, public relations, lobbying… – Both democratic and economic systems

Why Public Opinion Research? ¨ Practical application of research – Growing value of research knowledge in range of professions, especially mass communication ¨ Developing analytical/critical skills ¨ Thoughtful evaluation of opinion data – Data workers – Media professionals – Information consumers

Readings and Class Notes ¨ All readings and notes will be on the web https: //dshah. journalism. wisc. edu/teaching/#j 614 Readings: – Full set of readings available as a single zipped file ¨ Class notes: – Will be posted by the morning of class, hopefully weeks before, so that you have them in advance

The Class Research Project ¨ Groups of 4 -6 people from lab section – (a) highlight a trend in public opinion – (b) predict how trend is a function of media – (c) attempt to link it to shifts in content • Survey experiment of question wording • Content analysis of media for period of trend – (d) present your predictions and conclusions

Group Project Requirement ¨ Opinion Trend Paper – Introduction and plotting of the changes in an opinion trend, and discussion of its import. 15 points toward your grade. ¨ Media Predictions Paper – Review literature and propose model predicting media-opinion linkages. 20 points toward your grade. ¨ Question Wording Paper – Propose a question wording experiment, including survey items and response categories. 15 points toward your grade. ¨ Content Analysis Work – Conduct a content analysis of media content to predict the trend in mass opinion. 30 points toward your grade.

Final Presentation ¨ Over the last three sessions, each group will then make an 8 -10 minute presentation (a) highlighting the opinion trend, (b) explaining their theory of media influence, (c) summarizing their findings for both the survey experiment and content analysis relating media and opinion. – One presentation will be selected from each day as a “finalist. ” – “Finalist” groups will not have to take the final exam. – Worth 50 points toward your final grade.

Peer Evaluation of Group Work ¨ Team members evaluate each other – Minimizes free-riding on others work ¨ All evaluations are blind to other members – Evaluate each other member besides self ¨ Average of evaluations determines score – 20 points toward final grade

Exams ¨ Midterm (50 points) ¨ Final (50 points) ¨ Multiple-choice and short answer questions – From lectures, labs, and readings

Lab Sections ¨ Taught by TA ¨ Lab attendance is essential ¨ Lab activities – Presentation of key material – Discussion of lecture concepts – Exercises to illustrate concepts – Class project activities

Lab activities ¨ 2 response papers – (10 points each) ¨ Mini-assignments – (10 points total) ¨ Participation – (20 points total)

Grading Project responsibilities: ¨ Trend Selection ¨ Media Predictions ¨ Question Wording Experiment ¨ Content Analysis Work ¨ Group Presentation ¨ Peer Evaluation (Individual) Exams ¨ Midterm exam ¨ Final exam Lab Assignments ¨ Response Paper 1 ¨ Response Paper 2 ¨ Mini-Assignments ¨ Participation ¨ TOTAL POINTS 15 15 15 30 50 25 50 50 10 10 10 20 300

Grading ¨ Percentage – 93 -100% – 88 -93% – 83 -88% – 78 -83% – 73 -78% – 68 -73% – below 68% Grade A AB B BC C D F ¨ Any extra credit offered added in after final splits

Course Overview ¨ Class Schedule ¨ Reading Schedule ¨ Lab Schedule

Journalism 614: Setting the Stage

What Is Public Opinion? ¨ How do we define it? ¨ How do we measure it? ¨ Who responds to it? ¨ What influences it? ¨ How are mass communication and mass opinion connected to each other?

Conceptualizing Public Opinion ¨ Ways of thinking about public opinion: – Public opinion as the expression of views • Central to decision making in democracy • Central to consumer judgments in capitalist societies – Public opinion as a tool of social integration • What is the norm? What is acceptable? • Central to social harmony in communities • But also a tool for social control

How Do Media Influence It? ¨ What effects do news, entertainment, and ad campaigns have on opinion? ¨ Do the media change our attitudes, or is the effect more subtle? ¨ Are the effects restricted to certain contexts and certain issues? ¨ What responsibility do mass media have regarding their impact?

Consumers and Citizens ¨ Effects of ads on consumer behavior well documented at same time news effects questioned ¨ Implies a new model of influence – Evidence of low involvement effects – Not about “persuasion” but about “cognition” ¨ Little defensive reaction in low involvement conditions - nature of effect on opinion is fundamentally different that expected

Example of Nazi Germany ¨ Propaganda Model - Hitler’s propaganda machine did not increase anti-Semitic attitudes but brought already existing anti. Semitic attitudes into more prominent use for defining the everyday world – Shifted the frame of reference – Change in low involvement perceptions – Conventional model focus to much on attitudes – For many, politics is low involvement too

Democratic, Capitalist Societies ¨ Public opinion not only consequential for functioning of government, but for functioning of the economy, corporate interests, and brands ¨ Public sentiment dictates the success or failure of capitalist enterprises due to consumer choice – Why have some many corporate leaders resigned from Trump’s advisory boards? ¨ Corporate interests try to shape public opinion and choice through communication – Greater choice of media options – Narrower targeting of audience segments

Power of Public Opinion ¨ Opinion may be more powerful than voting – Voting is formalized, channeled behavior • Ordered and not threatening to the political order • Reaffirms the status quo • Not a direct response to consumer sphere – Expression of opinion is “high-risk” • Tiananmen Square: Standing up to government • Social protest: Standing up for beliefs – More of a threat toward institutions than voting

Need Monitoring Systems ¨ Politicians may over-estimate its importance, direction and intensity – Rely on poor samples • Pay too much attention to social media posts – Make decisions based on “fear” • Worry about “latent opinion” –what might be – Decision-making based on perception • Assume effects of media/events without evidence

Factors Elevating Public Opinion ¨ 1. Expansion of mass media and social media – Greater interaction between politicians and public ¨ 2. Growth of public opinion measurement – Greater visibility of mass opinion ¨ 3. Decline of Party Identification – Less predictable voting patters tied to parties ¨ 4. Rise of independent voters – Larger proportion of swing voters ¨ 5. Decline of voter turnout – Mobilizing voters more difficult

And What if Public is Ignorant? ¨ In 1986, a majority of Americans didn’t know the name of the Soviet leader (Mikhail Gorbachev) ¨ In 2003, 22% of Americans believe Saddam Hussein helped plan and support the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks – 24% believe several of the hijackers were Iraqis – 41% say Saddam had “strong links” to al Qaida. – Study finds FOX News viewers were the most misinformed. – Center for Public Integrity study finds 935 Falsehoods in Pre-War Claims by Members of Bush Administration.

More Evidence… ¨ In 2014, Annenberg Policy Center Survey found: – Only 36 percent of Americans can actually name three branches of government the Constitution created – Only 38 percent of Americans knew which party controls the U. S. House of Representatives – Only 27 percent knew it takes a two-thirds majority of the House and Senate to override a presidential veto.

Direct or Representative Democracy? ¨ Philosophical origins: – Representative democracy: Plato – Direct democracy: Aristotle ¨ Walter Lippman vs. John Dewey – Lippman: Ordinary citizens incapable of rational decision-making – Dewey: Importance of creating opportunities for citizens to participate • Schools should build democratic skills

Tyranny of the Majority ¨ James Madison concern: – “Tyranny of the majority” • A rationale for representative democracy • Concern for the suppression of minority views • Representative democracy as counterpoint – Enlightened leaders as an alternative to direct democracy’s dictatorship by the majority – Avoids problem of “winner take all” politics – Encourages negotiated policy/compromise

Leaders Focused on Public Opinion ¨ Restoring the “tyranny of the majority” ¨ Governing by public opinion polls – Do politicians… • • Choose issues according to polls? Alter positions according to polls? Push views that align with their supporters? Silence themselves if views are unpopular? – The “never-ending campaign” ¨ Leading with an eye on approval ratings – Would politicians “wag the dog” to engage in conflicts to benefit from the “rally-round-the-flag” effect?

Power of Ignorant Opinion? ¨ If public opinion has become more important… ¨ If the population lacks important knowledge… ¨ …does the influence of public opinion lead to poor decision-making? – What can be done?

Public Opinion and Economics ¨ Many of these same concerns apply to realm of corporations and consumer – Most consumers are uninformed – Most make impressionistic judgments – Corporations are responsive to consumers – Brand reputation is critical to success

Three Foundations of Reputation ¨ Economic performance – Brand sales and profits - market leadership ¨ Social responsiveness – Social consciousness and concern for consumers ¨ The ability to deliver to stakeholders – Think beyond the narrow range of end consumers

The Normative Context ¨ Sets the stage for normative context of class – Artificial distinction between consumers and citizens - they are the same people! – The importance of understanding opinion as expression of general will and a social force – The balance between representative and direct democracy in relation to government and policy