Joint SPCAPEC Regional Workshop on Energy Statistics and

　　　　　　 Joint SPC-APEC Regional Workshop on Energy Statistics and Modeling for the SDG 7 and the COP 21 INDC Energy Targets 14 -18 March 2016 Nuku’alofa, Kingdom of Tonga Fundamentals of Energy Statistics and Energy Balances Edito Barcelona Energy Statistics and Training Office Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

Energy Statistics and Energy Balances • Energy Statistics • The basic energy statistics refer to statistics on energy stocks and flows, energy infrastructure, performance of the energy industries, and the availability of energy resources within the national territory of a given country during a reference period • Energy Balance • Energy balances are an accounting framework for compilation and reconciliation of data on all energy products entering, exiting and used within that territory 2

Energy Statistics 3

Energy Commodities Primary Secondary Coals Peat Crude Oil NGL’s Natural Gas Oil Shale/Oil Sands Petroleum Products, Manufactured Solid Fuels Liquids and Gases Renewables Heat and Non-Thermal Electricity Wastes Biofuels (Solid, Liquid and Gaseous) Any Fuels Derived from Renewable Sources Heat and Electricity Non Renewables Nuclear Combustible Source: OECD, IEA, EUROSTAT, Energy Statistics Manual, 2004

Scope of Energy Statistics • Energy Commodities • • • 0 – Coal and Coal Products 1 – Peat and Peat Products 2 – Oil Shale / Oil Sands 3 – Natural Gas 4 – Oil and Oil Products 5 – Biofuels (Solid, Liquid & Gaseous) 6 – Waste (Industrial and Municipal) 7 – Electricity 8 – Heat 9 – Nuclear and other fuels • Energy Flows • Primary Supply • Transformation • Final Consumption

Energy Flows Primary Supply • Indigenous Production Crude Oil Natural Gas NGL Coal Biomass • Import Export Other Sources Energy Flow Primary Supply International Bunkers Power Generation (nuclear, hydro and geothermal) Stock Changes Opening Stock minus Closing Stock Source: Kaneda, APEC Seminar on Model Building, Hanoi, March 2005. • • Primary supply is the total amount of energy that was used for local purposes in the economy Exported products, sales to international marine vessels and international aviation as well as those put to stocks are not included although these data should be fully accounted for and reported Imports and amounts taken from the stocks are included in primary supply Primary supply also includes electricity generation from hydro, nuclear, geothermal energy and other sources

Energy Flows Transformation Sector Refineries CRNG Feed Crude NGL Ref FS Additives Non-Crude Transfer Field Gas NG LPG Cond Energy Sector Own Use / Loss CHP Plants Petroleum Products Fuels Heat Electricity Import Export Transformation (to Secondary Energy) Coking Coal COG Coke Tar Coke Oven Coke BFG Heat Blast Furnace Iron/Steel Fuels City Gas Works Thermal Power Generation Hydrogen • • Other Conversion Electricity Fuel Cell The transformation sector covers all fuel transformation and conversion processes which changes one form of energy to another or others that could be used for intended application. The most common are electricity generation and oil refining. Electricity generation converts fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas into electricity. Oil refining transforms crude oil or other refinery intakes to petroleum products for final use. Source: Kaneda, APEC Seminar on Model Building, Hanoi, March 2005.

Energy Flows Final Consumption Primary Energy Products Secondary Energy Products Final Energy Consumption Industry Iron & Steel Chemical & Petrochemical Non-Ferrous Metals Non-Metallic Mineral Products Transportation Equipment Machinery Mining & Quarrying Food, Beverages & Tobacco Pulp, Paper & Printing Wood & Wood Products Construction Textile & Leather Other Industry Transportation International Civil Aviation Domestic Air Transport Road Rail Inland Waterways Pipeline Transport Other Transport Non-Energy Other Sectors Commerce & Public Services Residential Agriculture Fishing Others

Importance of Energy Statistics Monitoring the energy market Energy security analysis Determining social welfare/equity Planning for sustainable development Mitigation of environmental impact of energy use Analysis of economic opportunities from new technologies i. e. : energy efficiency • Energy planning and policy formulation • • •

Why collect the data? “A Foundation to Policy” n Solid data collection framework for the proper monitoring and reporting of the energy market: è Provides the foundation for policy and market analysis; è which in turn better informs the policy decision process; è therefore help policy makers: § select policy instruments best suited to meet domestic and international policy objectives; § and decide on required adjustments to existing policies.

Why collect the data? (2) n “Benefits > Cost” è The collection and processing of any data has a cost; è However, a strategic investment in data far outweighs the cost of selecting the wrong policy and policy instruments; n The lack of essential data can lead the policy making process towards the wrong policy choices è A bit like giving up on maps, compass and other guidance for direction when trying to find our way n True for local, national, international policy issues

What to collect? n No single/simple answer è Depends on the objectives (e. g. : policy/legal/economic…), è Depends on country, è Situation and specificities of the market, è etc… n In light of the objectives; è Identify the analytical needs, è Identify the data needs to produce the analysis, è Assess what data you currently collect or have access to, è Assess data opportunities from other policy agendas, è Define the data collection strategy for the missing data, è Seek the missing data.

On going Challenges • Data needs vs. Resources vs. Budget • Data quality • Harmonisation è Harmonisation => Comparability è Comparability => Understanding of market è Understanding of market => Informs the policy decision process

On going Challenges Data needs vs. Resources vs. Budget • Data needs are often known, • Resources are scarce, • Competing budget priorities.

On-going Challenges Data Quality n Completeness è Reliance on estimations è Missing and/or confidential data è Availability of detailed information… n Quality è Inconsistencies (e. g. : Efficiency of power plants > 100%) è Subtotals not adding up to totals è Large statistical difference è Breaks in time series - no revisions in time series è “Other sectors” being used as a balancing item n Timeliness è Required time to collect, process, check and release data

On going Challenges Harmonisation => Comparability • An issue for international, regional, and national organisations… è Comparability of data and definitions across countries § § § • Product / flows definitions, ISIC vs. NACE vs. NAICS vs. SIC… Data on net vs. gross calorific values… …but can also be an issue at the country level è Comparability of definitions for energy and corresponding activity flows § § correspondence of energy and economic activity data, Residential vs. commercial accounts… 16

On going Challenges Comparability => Understanding the market Comparability provides the ability to gather a wealth of information to better inform the policy process; • Understanding the market => Better informs the policy decision process • 17

Energy Balances 18

Concept of Energy Balance • An overall energy balance is an accounting framework for compilation and reconciliation of data on all energy products entering, exiting and used within the national territory of a given country during a reference period • The energy balance should be as complete as possible that is, all energy flows should, in principle, be accounted for in the balance • It should be based on the first law of thermodynamics which states that the amount of energy within any closed system is fixed and can neither be increased nor diminished unless energy is brought into or sent out from the system

Purpose of Energy Balance (1) • Provide comprehensive and reconciled data on the energy situation of a territory • Provide comprehensive information on energy supply and demand • Serves as a quality tool to ensure completeness, consistency and comparability of basic statistics • Ensure comparability between different reference periods and between different territories • Provide data for estimation of CO 2 emission 20

Purpose of Energy Balance (2) • Provide basis for indicators of energy’s role in a territory’s economy • Provide data for calculation of efficiencies of transformation processes • Provide data for calculation of relative shares of the supply/consumption of various products of the country’s total • Provide and input for modeling and forecasting 21

Scope of Energy Balance • Territory boundary – defined by the boundary of national territory • Product boundary – defined by the scope of all energy products (10 product groups) • Flow boundary – defined by the scope of energy flows (primary, transformation, consumption) • The product and flow boundaries are fixed in the short term but may be revised as technology advances and/or new sources of energy becomes available Next 22

Product Boundary • • • 0 – Coal and Coal Products 1 – Peat and Peat Products 2 – Oil Shale / Oil Sands 3 – Natural Gas 4 – Oil and Oil Products 5 – Biofuels (Solid, Liquid & Gaseous) 6 – Waste (Industrial and Municipal) 7 – Electricity 8 – Heat 9 – Nuclear and other fuels Back 23

Flow Boundary • • • Production Import Export Bunkering Stock changes Transformation Energy use by energy industries Losses during transformation Final consumption Back 24

Scope of Energy Balance • What are excluded in the scope: • Passive energy such as heat gains of building and solar energy falling on the land to grow crops • Deposits of energy resources and reserves • Extraction of materials not covered in primary energy production • Waste and biomass used for non-energy purposes 25

General Principles (1) • Energy balance is compiled with respect to a clearly defined period; annual as a minimum • A matrix represented by rows and columns • Columns represent energy products • Column “Total” is the sum of data entries in the corresponding rows • Rows represent energy flows • A separate row is reserved for statistical difference calculated as the difference between supply and consumption 26

General Principles (2) • Rows and columns should contain homogenous information (refer to the same product and flows defined in their headers) • The detailed energy balance should contain sufficient rows and columns to show clearly the relationship between inputs and outputs of the transformation process • All entries should be expressed in one energy unit (Joule is recommended) • The conversion factors between energy units should be reported with the energy balance • Net calorific values should be used for measuring the energy content of products 27

General Principles (3) • To give the primary energy equivalent of electricity produced from non-combustible energy sources, the physical energy content method should be used • In this method, the normal physical energy value of the primary energy form is used for the production figure • For primary electricity, this is the gross generation from the source • Electricity from hydro, solar, wind and ocean energy are considered primary electricity • Electricity from nuclear and geothermal are considered as generated from primary heat, the heat is the primary form • The primary energy equivalent from these sources are the heat that flow to the turbines 28

Structure of Energy Balance Columns • A detailed energy balance can have as many number of columns as possible • A compact energy balance can be prepared due to space limitations in publications but a comprehensive electronic version should be made available to the users requiring more detailed information • Sequencing of columns • Groups of energy products are mutually exclusive and are based on SIEC • Column “Total” should follow the columns specific to particular energy products (or group of products) • The column “Total” should be followed by supplementary columns containing sub-total such as non-renewables or renewable 29

Structure of Energy Balance Rows • Top Block – flows representing energy entering and leaving the national territory as well as stock changes • Middle Block – flows showing how energy is transformed, transferred, used by energy industries for own use and lost in in distribution and transmission • Bottom Block – flows representing final energy consumption and non-energy use of energy products • Statistical difference should be placed between the top and middle blocks 30

Top Block • • • + Primary Energy Production + Import of primary and secondary energy - Export of primary and secondary energy International (aviation and marine) bunkers - Stock Changes (closing – opening stock) = Total Energy Supply 31

Middle Block • Transfers • Transformation • Include all process that produce secondary energy • Inputs to transformation are shown with a negative (-) sign • Outputs are shown as positive numbers • Own use by Energy Industry • Consumption of fuels, electricity and heat for the direct support of production • Losses that occur during the transmission, distribution and transport of fuels, electricity and heat • Also includes venting and flaring of manufactured gases, losses of geothermal heat after production of electricity and pilferage of fuels or electricity 32

Bottom Block (1) • Final consumption • Final Energy Consumption • Industry • Transport • Other Sector • Non-Energy Next 33

Bottom Block (2) • Industry • • • • Iron and steel Chemical and petrochemical Non-ferrous metals Non-metallic minerals Transport Equipment Machinery Mining and quarrying Food and Tobacco Paper, pulp and print Wood and wood products Textile and leather Construction Industries not elsewhere specified Back 34

Bottom Block (3) • Transport • • • Domestic Aviation Road Rail Domestic Navigation Pipeline transport Transport not elsewhere specified • Other Sector • • • Households (residential) Commercial and public services Agriculture, forestry Fishing Not elsewhere specified Back 35

Detailed Energy Balance Template (1) 36

Aggregated Energy Balance Template 37

Data reconciliation and estimation of missing data • In making energy balances, there should be accuracy requirements • It is recommended that accuracy requirements applicable for basic energy data are clearly described in country energy statistics metadata • Estimation of missing data • To maintain integrity of the balance, estimates should be made following general principles in areas of economic statistics as well as good practices applicable to energy statistics • Reconciliation • It is recommended that countries provide a summary of the performed reconciliation in the energy balance metadata to ensure transparency of energy balance preparation 38

Way Forward New developments make the tasks of statisticians even more challenging: n Market liberalisation : è From one company to hundreds n Confidentiality (linked to liberalisation) n More work passed to statistics offices: è More companies to survey (liberalisation) è Renewables (scattered information) è Energy efficiency indicators (including socio-economic data) n Resources do not follow increases in work load: è Statistics often given a low profile, budget cuts… n Fast turnover in staff: lack of experience, continuity… n Part of solution is stronger policy - statistics links

Way Forward l l Statistics, and statisticians, should be more involved in the energy policy debate: è Statisticians to better understand the needs and use of data è Policy makers to better understand the issues faced by statisticians, è Better appreciation of the statistics work in order to attract (and retain) qualified people … Adapting reporting mechanism to the new environment created by liberalisation, mergers, etc è Policy Statistics law, surveys, transmission of data, … l Strengthen links between industry and administrations in terms of data requirements l Resources should be readjusted to cover additional tasks passed to statisticians

Energy Statistics a challenge shared bylall Decision makers Policy makers Statisticians l The ones who do the work l Should be fully involved in the whole process â Statisticians need to understand why they collect the data â Policy makers need to understand the problems faced by statisticians èEnergy policy èAllocation of resources Energy Efficiency Analysts/ Experts l Prime users of the data l Advisors to policy makers l Interface between policy makers and statisticians â Lobby â Comments on data 41

Thank you for your attention www. ieej. or. jp/egeda/ www. aperc. ieej. or. jp 42