Joint and Combined Operations Transnational Actors NonState Actors
Joint and Combined Operations Transnational Actors Non-State Actors Peacekeeping Failed States Information Security
Future Security Landscape Demographics • Record highs populations in developing countries • Unprecedented crisis of aging in industrialized world Economic • Income gaps widen, resentment of US • Imposition of trade/capital controls • Use of oil or other commodities as weapons Resources • Petroleum sources lie in unstable regions • Water availability, Food Distribution concerns Political • Poor Governance and income inequality Technology • Spread of WMD, Information Technology • Biotechnology, Miniaturization 2
Future Strategic Environment • Greater Economic/Political/Social Disparities • Religious and ethnic intolerance/rise of religious fundamentalism/militant tribalism & nationalism • Greater regional cooperation/integration/organization • Transnational drug trafficking & other criminal activities • Ilegal immigration • Failing States; Environmental Disasters • Mass Migration, Refugees • Global Transmission of Diseases • Global Urbanization aggravated by demographic shifts, immigration and labor flows Failed States 3
Future Strategic Environment • Catastrophic Terrorism by States and Non-State & Transnational Groups, and individual actors • WMD & Missile Proliferation among States and non-state actors • Strategic Information Warfare; exploitation of NGOs, mass media • Battlespace expansion into U. S. homeland, Outer-space & Cyberspace • Potential of Major War Remains; overlapping Regional Conflicts • Full Range of Military Operations 4
Potential Future Adversary Capabilities • Ballistic and Land Attack Cruise Missiles • Submarines, Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles and Mines • Weapons of Mass Destruction (Bio, Chemical, Nuclear) • Advanced surface-to-air missiles and anti-air artillery • Concealment and deception • Hardened Underground Facilities • Information Disruption & Exploitation • Counter Space weapons 5
Potential Future Adversary Strategies • Terrorism, Atrocities, & WMD • Asymmetries; Surprise U. S. Intelligence • Counter-access to region of conflict • Deny deployment and embarkation • Counter US airpower superiority; deny precision targeting and attack • Counter Will; conduct Misinformation and Human Exploitation; WMD Threats, Protracted Conflict • Counter Infrastructure; Disrupt or Directly Attack information, transportation, energy, communications 6
Shifts in the Security Environment • The migration of conflict. • The primacy of ad hoc military coalitions. • A new political currency measuring the contributions of coalition partners. • An amplification of the anti-access/area denial problems. • The ability of adversaries to undermine threat and use of force. 7
Future Nature of Warfare 1. Smart and adaptive enemies 2. Asymmetric, cyber & space attacks xxx 3. Terrorism or use of WMD against US or allied Homelands 1. Greater likelihood of urban operations 2. Cross-cultural/cross-civilization conflicts marked by dissimilar warfighting philosophies/perspectives 3. Compression of operational cycles, tempo & levels of war 4. Multiple shifting coalitions; Increased multinational/interagency interoperability challenges 8
WAR RANGE OF MILITARY OPERATIONS Involving Use/ MOOTW Threat of Force MOOTW Not Involving Use/ Threat of Force NUCLEAR WARFARE CONVENTIONAL WARFARE FORCIBLE ENTRY; STRIKES; RAIDS UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE INFORMATION OPERATIONS NONCOMBATANT EVACUATION OPERATIONS; RECOVERY OPERATIONS LINE OF COMMUNICATIONS PROTECTION COMBATTING TERRORISM HOMELAND SECURITY HOMELAND DEFENSE: NATIONAL LAND DEFENSE; NATIONAL MARITIME DEFENSE; NATIONAL AIR AND SPACE DEFENSE; CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROTECTION CIVIL SUPPORT: CONSEQUENCE MANAGEMENT; MILITARY SUPPORT TO CIVIL AUTHORITY; MILITARY ASSISTANCE FOR CIVIL DISTURBANCES; DOD SUPPORT TO COUNTER DRUG OPS FOREIGN CONSEQUENCE MANAGEMENT; FOREIGN HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE COUNTERPROLIFERATION SANCTION ENFORCEMENT SUPPORT TO COUNTERINSURGENCY; SUPPORT TO INSURGENCY FREEDOM OF NAVIGATION OPERATIONS PEACE ENFORCEMENT SHOW OF FORCE PEACEKEEPING OPERATIONS SECURITY COOPERATION ACTIVITIES NATION ASSISTANCE: SECURITY ASSISTANCE; FOREIGN INTERNAL DEFENSE; HUMAN & CIV ASSIST ARMS CONTROL; MILITARY CONTACTS MULTI-NATIONAL EX, TR, ED NORMAL AND ROUTINE MILITARY ACTIVITIES 9
Questions • How do you deal with this? • As a nation • As a military • What’s most important? • How do we allocate our resources? • What kind of stuff do we buy and where do we put it? • How do we use it? 10
Agenda • • • Strategic Planning National Defense Strategy National Military Strategy Quadrennial Defense Review Transformation 11
Linking Strategy to Operations From the President… National Security Geo-Political/Geo-Economic Space Strategy National Defense • National Interests, Goals & Priorities Strategy Political-Military Space • Integrating Instruments of National Power • Strategic Context & Assumptions National Military Strategy • National Security Directives • Strategic Objectives • Military Objectives Joint Operations • Implementation Guidelines • Missions, Tasks & Endstates • Joint Doctrine US Government Do. D • Desired Capabilities & Attributes Armed Forces Military-Operational Space • Joint Concepts • Joint Force Management Battle Space • Joint Plans Joint Warfighting . . . to the Private 12
National Defense Strategy DOD’S APPROACH FOR EXECUTING THE NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY 13
National Defense Strategy Evolutionary Document • Aspects retained from the 2001 strategy include: − Emphasis on surprise and uncertainty − Key defense activities: Assure, Dissuade, Deter, Defeat − Key implementation guidelines: Capabilities-based approach and transformation, integrated risk management Secure the U. S. from direct attack • 2005 aspects include: Secure strategic access and retain freedom of action − Strategic objectives − New capability emphases: Strengthen alliances and partnerships ¬ Strengthening intelligence to contend with common challenges ¬ Improving proficiency against irregular challenges Establish security conditions conducive ¬ Increasing capabilities of to a favorable international order international and interagency partners − Implementation guidelines: Active, layered defense (National Military Strategy) in response to security challenges 14
National Defense Strategy Security Challenges Irregular VULNERABILITY q Non-state and state actors employing “unconventional” methods to counter stronger state opponents—terrorism, insurgency, etc. (erode our power) (e. g. , terrorism, insurgency, civil war, and emerging concepts like “unrestricted warfare”) Likelihood: very high; strategy of the weak Vulnerability: moderate, if not effectively checked. Lower Catastrophic Higher Traditional q Terrorist or rogue state employment of WMD or methods producing WMD-like effects against American interests. (paralyze our power) (e. g. , attack on homeland, global markets, or key ally that would generate a state of shock and preclude normal behavior) Likelihood: moderate and increasing Vulnerability: unacceptable, single event can alter our way of life Higher Disruptive q States employing military forces in wellknown forms of military competition and conflict. (challenge our power) (e. g. , conventional air, sea, and land forces, and nuclear forces of established nuclear powers) Likelihood: currently decreasing due to historic capabilityovermatch and expanding qualitative lead Vulnerability: low, but only if transformation is balanced Lower q Competitors employing technology or methods that might counter or cancel our current military advantages. (capsize our power) (e. g. , technological – bio, cyber, or space war, ultra miniaturization, directed-energy, other – diplomatic blackmail, cultural or economic war) Likelihood: low, but time works against U. S. Vulnerability: strategic surprise puts American security at LIKELIHOOD risk 15
National Defense Strategy Key Assumptions Our Strengths • Resilient network of alliances and partnerships • No peer competitor & unmatched in traditional military capability • Important advantages in other elements of national power • Global influence • Political and economic stability Our Opportunities • Prospect for a new & peaceful international system • Positive developments in Iraq and Afghanistan will enhance our influence and credibility • Problem states will increasingly be vulnerable to the forces of positive political and economic change • Many of our key partners welcome a deepening of our security relationships • New international partners are seeking integration into our system of alliances Our Vulnerabilities • Global security challenges will exceed our capacity to address them effectively alone • Our leading position in the world will continue to breed unease, resentment, and resistance • We and our allies will be principal targets of extremism and terrorism • Natural forces of inertia and resistance to change will constrain military transformation Our Challenges • Competitors and enemies—state and nonstate • Key international actors may choose strategic paths contrary to the interests of the U. S. • Adverse political change in friendly states • Crises related to political stability and governance • Internationally threats will be perceived differently and consensus may be difficult to achieve 16
National Defense Strategy Winning the War on Terrorism The United States will help to create and lead a broad international effort to deny terrorist extremist networks what they require to operate and survive. − To that end, the U. S. will: Protect the American homeland ¬ Disrupt and attack terrorist networks ¬ Counter ideological support for terrorism ¬ − The U. S. and its allies and partners will exploit eight terrorist vulnerabilities: Ideological support ¬ Leadership ¬ Foot soldiers ¬ Safe havens ¬ Weapons, including WMD • Funds • Communications and movement • Access to targets • 17
National Defense Strategy Implementation Guidelines • • • Active, layered defense: Continuous transformation: Capabilities-based planning: Transformation (Process) Planning Environment Integrated Risk Management (Decision Making) Active, Layered Defense (Military Strategy) Capabilities Based Approach (Planning and Ops) 18
National Military Strategy ARMED FORCES’ APPROACH FOR EXECUTING THE NATIONAL DEFENSE STRATEGY 19
National Military Strategy Executing the Strategy Objectives Protect the United States— Active Defense in Depth Prevent Conflict and Surprise Attack Prevail Against Adversaries Missions • Counter threats close to their source • Protecting strategic approaches • Defensive actions at home • Support to civil authorities and consequence management • Creating a global anti-terrorism environment • • • Forward posture and presence Promote security Deterring aggression Prevent surprise attacks Eliminate safe havens Preempt in self-defense § War on Terrorism § Operation Iraqi Freedom § Operation Enduring Freedom § Named OPLANs/CONPLANs Tasks / Capabilities (Illustrative) § Defend against Air and Missile Threats § Conduct Maritime Interdiction Operations § Conduct Persistent Surveillance § Protect Critical Infrastructure (CIP) § Provide Support to Civil Authorities and Consequence Management § Intelligence Sharing § Deter Forward § Conduct Global Strike (GS) § Exercise Flexible Deterrent Options (FDOs) § Conduct Preemptive Strikes (When Directed) § Conduct Security Cooperation Activities § Establish Favorable Security Conditions § Strategic Lift § Prevent WMD attacks § Strategic Communication § Credible Global Deterrent • Swiftly defeat adversaries in overlapping campaigns • Win decisively to achieve more enduring results • Conduct post-conflict stability and reconstruction operations
National Military Strategy Principles and Attributes • Principles – agility, decisiveness, integration − − Support simultaneous operations, application of overmatching power, and fusion of military capabilities with other instruments of power. Stress speed, allowing commanders to exploit an enemy’s vulnerabilities, rapidly seize the initiative, and achieve end-states. Support the concept of surging capabilities from widely dispersed locations to mass precise and decisive effects. Guide the development of joint doctrine, operations concepts, and capabilities. • Desired attributes of the joint force: − − Fully integrated Expeditionary Networked Decentralized ¢Adaptable ¢Decision-superior ¢Lethal • Capable of full-spectrum dominance • Continuously transforming to ensure continued military superiority 21
National Military Strategy Linking Strategy to Operations National Goal (NSS) Strengthen Alliances An example of the linkages from one NSS Goal to applicable components of the National Defense and Military Strategies, and joint concepts Defense Objective (NDS) Strengthen Alliances & Partnerships Defense Activity (NDS) Assure Military Objectives (NMS) Protect the Homeland Joint Operating Military Mission Concepts (JOCs) (NMS) § Protect Strategic Approaches § Adopt Fwd Posture Prevent Conflict § Promote Security & Surprise Attack § Prevent Surprise Attack WHY ---------------------► WHAT ----► q Homeland Defense q Global Deterrence q MCO q Stability Operations q Interagency Coord. q Security Cooperation q Shaping HOW
Who supports What? Today & Tomorrow Yesterday & Today Integrated at Department Systems Requirements Strategic Direction Joint Operations Concepts (JOps. C) Joint Operating Concepts (JOC) Joint Functional Concepts (JFC) Joint Integrating Concepts (JIC) Capabilities Bottom up, stovepiped Service Transformation Roadmaps and Concepts
The Joint World 24
Major Processes Planning, Programming and Budgeting Strategic Planning Guidanc e JPD Strategy Unified Comman d Plan With POTUS JAN 05 National Security Strategy Joint Programmi ng Guidance CPA MAR 04 OCT 99 Outline in SPG MAR 04 NOV 04 JOps C MAY 04 SEP 02 NOV 03 NMSPWOT CPR MAY 04 IPL Operational Concepts National Defense Military Strategy JUN 04 Service POMs Joint Doctrine Service Doctrine Operations Planning OCT 02 Strategic Assessment Joint Chairman’ Strategy s Risk Review Assessme MAY 04 nt MAY 04 Contingenc y Planning Guidance JUN 02 Security Cooperation Guidance APR 03 Co. Com War JSCP OCT Plans 02 JSCPNDECPosture 04 Security Cooperatio Global Force Management n Plans
Central Challenge Win the War on Terrorism Maintain Quality of Force Joint Warfighting Sustain Global Commitments Transform to Ensure Military Superiority Maintain Strategic Balance 26
Quadrennial Defense Review DOD’S CAPSTONE STRATEGIC PLANNING ACTIVITY 27
What is a QDR? • The QDR’s principal purpose is to balance strategy with resources − Develops strategic planning guidance for the Defense Department − Lays out an agenda for developing needed capabilities and shaping the future force • Takes a 20 -year outlook • Submitted to Congress with President’s FY 07 budget 28
2 nd Term Planning Guidance National Security Strategy National Defense Strategy Department-wide Planning Guidance National Military Strategic Context Terms of Reference Quadrennial Defense Review Operational Contingency Planning Security Cooperation Resource Organizational Capabilities Planning Unified Command Plan Program Review-POM Budget Transformation Planning Global Force Posture Base Realignment & Closure 29
Periods of Fundamental Change 1930 s • How to prepare for war with Japan? Challenges • How to prepare for a conflict in Europe? • How to develop new military technologies during the Depression /defense budget constraints? Responses New Concepts of Warfare 1950 s 1980 s • How to fight in the time, • How to roll-back place, and manner of our choosing in the atomic age? • How to leverage new nuclear “genie”? • How to employ “trip wires”? • How to reposture globally for the Cold War? “New Look” Strategy Communist expansion in the 3 rd world? Reagan Doctrine • Doctrine of massive • Carrier aviation • SDI • Maritime Strategy, horizontal escalation • Pentomic Army • Stealth / precision / • Nuclear-capable technology tactical aircraft (USAF, • Air. Land Battle USN) • SOF capabilities • NRO • Combined arms / mechanized warfare • Strategic bombing • How do we build partnerships to defeat terrorist extremism? • How to impose costs on • How do we defend the homeland in-depth? USSR in terms of technology? • How do we shape the choices of countries • How to restore the arriving at strategic military balance on the Central European Front? crossroads? • How do we prevent the acquisition or use of WMD by hostile state or non-state actors? • Amphibious warfare retaliation • Nuclear Triad (USAF, USN) 2000+ • Competitive strategies Transformation • Capabilities Mix • Joint Capability Enablers • Roles, Missions & Organizations • Business Practices • Human Capital Strategy • Authorities 30
Fiscal Realities The cyclic pattern in defense spending may continue Do. D Budget Authority (FY 02 $B) 18 yrs 550 Korean War 500 Reagan Buildup Vietnam War 450 400 350 3 yr draw down 13 yr draw down 7 yr draw down End of Cold War ? 9/11 USSR in Afghanistan, Iran Hostages 300 250 1950 Discretionary Spending Caps 1960 1970 Real Do. D Growth Rate, 1955 – 2002 = 0. 4% 1980 1990 2000 2010 Increasing Pressure on Top Line and Rise in Non-Discretionary 31
QDR Terms of Reference Four Core Problems Centerpiece of QDR effort will be assessments of Do. D’s wherewithal to address four core problems: • Build partnerships to defeat terrorist extremism • Defend the homeland in-depth • Shape the choices of countries at strategic crossroads • Prevent the acquisition or use of WMD by hostile state or non-state actors 32
QDR Terms of Reference Guiding Principles • Foster a structured, open and transparent competition of ideas during the Department’s deliberations • Draw upon lessons learned from Operations ENDURING FREEDOM and IRAQI FREEDOM • Identify approaches and capabilities to: −Prevent strategic surprise −Decrease decision cycles −Increase the speed of operational actions −Enhance agility of the force • Balance near-term operational demands with longer-term challenges and opportunities 33
QDR Terms of Reference Guiding Principles (cont’d) 1. Treat the Department’s force planning construct as a QDR output rather than an input 2. Develop executable guidance as issues mature during the QDR, then follow through with execution roadmaps 3. Account for fiscal constraints: Generate resource-neutral recommendations for adjustments in programs and force structure 34
QDR Terms of Reference Strategic Context Policy Goals Assure allies and friends Dissuade potential adversaries Deter aggression and counter coercion Defeat adversaries Mature & Emerging Challenges • • Catastrophic Irregular Disruptive Traditional Trends • • • Key Strategic Challenges Higher Irregular Catastrophic VULNERABILITY • • q Non-state and state actors q Terrorist or rogue state employing “unconventional” employment of WMD or methods to counter stronger methods producing WMD-like state opponents--terrorism, effects against American insurgency, etc. (erode our power) interests (paralyze our power). Lower Traditional Disruptive q States employing military forces in well- known forms of military competition and our power) Lower conflict (challenge Higher q Competitors employing technology or methods that might counter or cancel our current military advantages (capsize our power) LIKELIHOOD The United States and its allies and partners Governance problems in many parts of the world Rise of global terrorist networks, fueled by Islamist extremism Increasing threats to the homeland Great powers in the international system Regional WMD concerns 35
QDR Terms of Reference Implementation Guidelines • Active, layered defense − Defending the U. S. and projecting U. S. military power − Strengthening alliances and partnerships • Continuous transformation: Adapting defense establishment to new way of thinking about challenges and opportunities • Capabilities-based approach: Focusing on how adversaries may challenge us rather than on whom those adversaries might be or where we might face them • Integrated management of risks − Operational − Future challenges − Force management − Institutional 36
Transformation FUTURE JOINT AND COMBINED OPERATIONS 37
Transformation Transforming Defense The Emerging American Military: • More expeditionary (lighter, more lethal) • More networked (more interoperability below the JTF level) • Designed to leverage the exterior positions (precision from • • distance as sensors move in) Leverages increasingly persistent ISR Tighter sensor-shooter timelines (sensing, C 2, fly-out) Values Information Superiority (information operations) Focused on unmanned capabilities (UAV, UCAV, UUV, robotics) 38
Transformation Changing Ways of Warfare 1. An “order of magnitude” increase in battlefield situational 2. 3. 4. 5. awareness. A move from deliberate to adaptive planning, and the concomitant execution of dynamic military operations. A dramatic decline in US causalities compared with previous conflicts. An increasing emphasis on extended range operations. The diminishing role of heavy ground forces. 39
Transformation Technological Enhancements • • The increase dominance of precision weapons. The increasing quantity and quality of sensors and their integration into systems and networks. The increasing importance of stealth aircraft and electronic countermeasures. The increase use and utility of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). 40
Transformation U. S. Military Transformation Goals • Protect the U. S. homeland bases overseas • Project and sustain power in distant theaters • Deny our enemies sanctuary, make sure they know that nowhere are they protected from our reach • Protect our information networks from attack • Use information technology to link up different kinds of U. S. Forces so they can fight jointly • Maintain unhindered access to space and protect our space capabilities from enemy attack 41
Attributes of a Transformed Joint Force • Fully Integrated • All Do. D component capabilities are born joint and are able to integrate into a focused effort with a unified purpose • Networked • Linked and synchronized in time and purpose—allowing dispersed forces to communicate, maneuver, and share a common operating picture • Adaptable • Forces that are tailorable and scalable, prepared to quickly respond to any contingency • Expeditionary • Rapidly deployable, employable, and sustainable—regardless of anti-access, or area denial environments • Decision Superior • Gain and maintain information superiority to shape the situation or react to changes • Decentralized • Uses collaborative planning and shared knowledge to empower subordinate commanders to compress decision cycles • Lethal • Capability to destroy an adversary and/or his systems in all conditions and environments 42
QDR and DPG Trends In Future U. S. Joint Warfare QDR/DPG Strategy Elements Assure-Dissuade-Deter. Defeat q q Long-range Ø Global Perspective Ø Deep Large-scale Operational-Level Maneuver Ø Greater Operational Reach (speed + payload + range) Swift Ø Joint -Interagency-Multinational Information & Intelligence Fusion Ø Greater ISR - Engagement Intelligence Pull Ø Short Planning-Decision-Execution Cycles Ø Overwhelming Operational Tempo Need Capabilities for: • Longer Duration • Multiple Simultaneous Crisis q Light Ø Sustained But Survivable Combat Capabilities Ø Lower Deployment & Expeditionary Footprint Ø Self-deployable q Lethal Ø Networked with different ISR: Engagement asset ratio within joint forces Ø Shorter ISR-Engagement Times Ø Sustained Large-scale Precision Strike Ø Joint & Multinational Combined Arms 43
Transformation in Progress • • • NCW implementation The power of shared awareness − ISR − High speed networking − New capabilities / TTPs Networking + ISR = Speed Information running ahead of the physics A new Airpower – Land power intersection − All weather weapons / CAS / Interdiction − Speed − Weight of Fire vs Precision − The non-contiguous battlespace Movement toward tactical level jointness / interoperability, especially SOF 44
Trends In Future U. S. Capabilities • Standing, deployable Joint Command Control system − − − Interoperable Communication/ Info systems and networks SOPs, Common Operational Pictures and Collaborative Planning Tools Operational Net Assessment and Effects Based Planning • Rapidly Deployable, Sustainable, Mission-Oriented Joint Forces − − − Air superiority and Maritime littoral assets Tailored & maneuverable Ground and Amphibious Units Air and Sea Strategic Mobility Assets, Pre-positioned stocks • Precision Deep Strike − − − Stealthy bombers, stand-off cruise missiles, smart munitions Earth-penetrating and thermo baric weapons Manned/Unmanned ISR Aircraft & space/ground/sea sensors • Layered Force Protection − − Information operations & Non-Lethal Weapons National and Theater Missile and Air Defenses Hardened U. S. space systems with defense systems Chemical and Biological Defense Units 45
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