JOBS IN MAINE CONDITIONS OUTLOOK Labor Market Information

JOBS IN MAINE: CONDITIONS & OUTLOOK Labor Market Information and Online Resources Career Development Facilitator Training March 7, 2014 Ruth Pease Economic Research Analyst Center for Workforce Research & Information Maine Dept. of Labor www. maine. gov/labor/cwri/ ruth. e. pease@maine. gov 207 -621 -5189

Labor Market Information and Resources • Recent trends and current conditions • Population and labor force • Outlook 2010 to 2020

Types of workforce data: Occupations what workers do (SOC) Industries what firms do (NAICS)

Civilian noninstitutional population Not In LABOR FORCE 709, 000 377, 000 65% 35% Maine Labor Force Statistics, 2013 EMPLOYED 662, 000 92. 7% UNEMPLOYED Not Employed and Looking for Work LABOR FORCE = Employed + Unemployed. 47, 000 LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE = 65% 6. 6% NOT in LABOR FORCE = Not working nor available nor seeking work UNEMPLOYED = not working but available and looking for work UNEMPLOYMENT RATE = percent of LABOR FORCE that is unemployed = 6. 6%

Recent trends and current conditions

595 000 585 000 янв-08 фев-08 мар-08 апр-08 май-08 июн-08 июл-08 авг-08 сен-08 окт-08 ноя-08 дек-08 янв-09 фев-09 мар-09 апр-09 май-09 июн-09 июл-09 авг-09 сен-09 окт-09 ноя-09 дек-09 янв-10 фев-10 мар-10 апр-10 май-10 июн-10 июл-10 авг-10 сен-10 окт-10 ноя-10 дек-10 янв-11 фев-11 мар-11 апр-11 май-11 июн-11 июл-11 авг-11 сен-11 окт-11 ноя-11 дек-11 янв-12 фев-12 мар-12 апр-12 май-12 июн-12 июл-12 авг-12 сен-12 окт-12 ноя-12 дек-12 янв-13 фев-13 мар-13 апр-13 май-13 июн-13 июл-13 авг-13 сен-13 окт-13 ноя-13 Nonfarm Payroll Jobs (seasonally adjusted) 625 000 Unemployment Rate 615 000 6, 0% 5, 0% 605 000 4, 0% 3, 0% Non-Farm Payroll Jobs 2, 0% 1, 0% 0, 0% Unemployment Rate (seasonally adjusted) Since stabilizing in 2010, Maine has regained about one-third of the number of jobs lost in the downturn. The unemployment rate is trending down. 9, 0% 8, 0% 7, 0%

Sectors that shed the most jobs involve making, moving or selling goods, as well as government; sectors adding jobs are primarily human-capital intensive… (Net change in jobs from 2008 to 2013) -2 900 -800 -100 Natural Resources -4 300 -4 000 -3 900 -1 300 -1 200 Financial Activities 700 2 800 3 400 1 900 2 500 Professional & Business Svcs Health Care & Social Assistance Leisure & Hospitality Educational Services Other Services Transportation & Utiliites Wholesale Trade Information Government Construction Retail Trade Manufacturing -8 300

ffi O P ct ro io du n/ Tr ce/ Ex ctio an Ad sp m Sa tra n i c In l st orta nist es tio Ar alla tio rat Re n l i n ts /D tion /M ve S ate es M ate u d ig ain ri pp a n/ En ten l M ort Fa te an ov rm rta ce ing Fo ing inm /Re od /F en pa i ir s t/ P Ar re hing Me d ch pa / ite ra For ia Bu ct tio es ur n/ t ild e/ Se ry in En rv g/ gi ing G n ro M un a eer Pe ds na in g g rs on Mai em al nte en Bu Ca na t si re/ nc Li ne S e fe ss erv /P /F ic C hys in e om ic an ci m al/S al un o L c C ity/ ia e om S l S ga o pu cia cie l te l S nc r / Ed H M erv e uc ea ath ice at lth em s H io ca a ea n/ lth Tr re S tica a ca u l re Pr inin pp Pr ote g/L ort ac ct i tit ive bra io r ne Se y rs rvi /T ce ec hn i. . . st ru on C . . . This has caused major displacement in middle-skill bluecollar and administrative support occupations, which have been the primary path to a middle-class lifestyle for those without post-secondary education. (Change in jobs 2008 to 2012) 2 000 0 -2 000 -4 000 -6 000

Jobs that do not require post-secondary education suffered highest losses. Growth occurred in occupations that require education beyond high school. Many job seekers do not qualify for openings in growing fields of work. 5 000 0 -5 000 -10 000 -15 000 Net change in jobs by usual educational requirement for entry. 2008 to 2012 -20 000 -25 000 Less than high school HS diploma or Some college or Associate's equivalent non-degree or higher award

Another indication of shifting job requirements, work attributes valued in growing middle-income occupations are very different from those in declining occupations. Examples of knowledge, skill and ability requirements: Growing Occupations Critical thinking, problem solving, decision making, mathematics, reading comprehension, deductive reasoning, processing information, analyzing data Declining Occupations Machinery operation, equipment inspection, tool selection, physical strength, following instructions, manual dexterity, clerical functions

In summary The recession of 2008 accelerated a structural shift in jobs away from middle-skill occupations that typically involved routine tasks that are procedural and repetitive. Rising performance requirements of jobs present a challenge… …to displaced workers whose skills and experience may no longer be in demand, …and to job seekers lacking relevant education, training or experience.

Looking ahead demographic considerations

We can no longer count on a natural increase in population… Natural Change (right scale) Births (left scale) Deaths (left scale) 20 000 12 000 10 000 18 000 16 000 14 000 12 000 10 000 0 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 -2 000 1955 8 000 1950 Births and Deaths 22 000 14 000 Natural Change 24 000

12 000 Net Migration Natural Change 8 000 4 000 0 -4 000 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Net Change from Prior Year …so we will need to increase levels of net in-migration to maintain a stable population and workforce.

As we move through the lifecycle, our attachment to the labor force is highest between age 25 and 54 before declining at an accelerating rate with age. Labor Force Participation Rates 100% 2012 80% 2000 to 2007 Average 60% 40% 20% 0% 16 -19 20 -24 25 -34 35 -44 45 -54 55 -64 65 -69 70 -74 75+

During this decade a very large share of the population is aging beyond their peak years of labor force attachment. (Population by year of age if there were no migration in or out of Maine) 22 000 20 000 18 000 16 000 14 000 12 000 10 000 2010 8 000 15 20 25 30 35 40 2017 45 Age 50 2022 55 60 65 70 75

Maine has an unusually large share of Baby Boomers and a low share of young people to enter the workforce. Percent of Total Population in 2012 2, 0% 1, 5% 1, 0% 0, 5% U. S. 0, 0% 0 Maine 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 Age

-20 000 0% -30 000 Projected Population Change (right scale) Labor Force Participation Rate 2012 (left scale) Labor Force Participation Rate 2000 to 2007 Average (left scale) Projected Population Change 20122017 20% 75+ -10 000 70 -74 40% 65 -69 0 55 -64 60% 45 -54 10 000 35 -44 80% 25 -34 20 000 20 -24 100% 16 -19 Labor Force Participation Rates The population in their peak years of labor force participation is declining rapidly.

Job Outlook to 2020

Populatio n JOBS Goods and Services Labor Force

Considerations affecting outlook In the short term, a strengthening economy that puts unemployed back to work should produce job gains in the next few years. In the longer term, job growth will be driven by demographic trends in the population and migration to and from the state. Demographic trends affect: • Labor supply • Demand for goods and services

Industry Outlook – what firms do: Maine’s biggest industries Health Care and Social Assistance 17% Distribution by jobs in 2012 All Other Industries 23% Manufacturing 8, 7% Professional & Business Services 9, 9% Government 17% Retail Trade 14, 0% Leisure & Hospitality 11%

Healthcare&Social Assist Professional&Bus Svcs Leisure & Hospitality Educational Svcs Government Natural Resources -500 -300 -200 -2 100 -1 500 -2 300 -4 800 -2 500 -200 -6 400 2 400 1 900 5 900 4 600 500 1 400 700 400 1 500 300 1 000 3 500 2 300 15 700 2007 to 2010 Other Svcs Wholesale Trade Financial Activities Transportion & Utilities Retail Trade Information Construction Manufacturing -8 -6600 700 Through 2020, most sectors will see job growth, but only four are expected to have significantly more jobs than the prerecession peak. Outlook 2010 to 2020

Occupational Outlook – what workers do: Maine’s occupational groups Distribution by jobs in 2012 Management, Business and Sales and Related Financial 10% Production 6% Transportation & Material Moving 6% Office and Administrative Support 17% Professional & Related: Computer & Mathematical and Professional Architecture & Engineering Life, Physical &Related Soc. Sci. Community & Social Svcs 19% Legal Education & Library Arts, Design & Sports Healthcare Practitioners & Technicians Other 15% Construction & Extraction 5% Installation, Maint, & Repair 4% Service 22% Service Occupations: Healthcare Support Protective Services Food Prep & Service Building & Maint. Personal Care & Svcs. Farm/Fish/ Forestry <1%

Growth is concentrated in occupational groups that represent opposite ends of the skills, education and wage spectrum.

Share of Total Jobs by 2011 Average Wage The concentration of job growth in high- and low-wage occupations will result in a smaller share of jobs in the middle of the wage spectrum. Share of 2010 Jobs Share of Expected Job Growth to 2020 29% 27% 24% 22% 31% 21% 15% 12% 5% <$11 to $14. 99 $15 to $19. 99 $20 to $24. 99 Jobs by Their 2011 Average Hourly Wage $25+

The distribution of job growth by education level shows a shift toward occupations requiring education beyond high school. 70% Share of 2010 Jobs Share of Expected Job Growth ALL JOBS 36% HW-ID JOBS NET NEW JOBS 2010 JOBS Share of Total 57% HS diploma or less 36% 27% 20% 13% Postsecondary, less than BA 23% 17% BA+ Usual Education Requirement of Occupations

Though fastest growth is expected in occupations requiring post-secondary education, most jobs will still be in occupations with low education requirements.

“High Growth” versus “In-Demand” Job openings stem from two sources: replacement of incumbent workers and job creation. From 2010 to 2020, nearly 4 out of five openings will be due to replacement needs. Replacement 15, 150 Growth 4 360

Replacement openings create job opportunities even in occupations expected to experience net job losses. “In-demand” status is based on average annual openings, not net growth. Occupations ranked by growth rate, high to low. Professional and Related 1 370 Service 1 270 2 940 3 510 Construction and Extraction Sales and Related Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Management, Business and Financial Transportation and Material Moving Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Office and Administrative Support Production 230 + 810 380 Growth 2 070 Replacement 31 + 140 380 1 310 150 + 910 100 + 590 420 2 120 40 + 740

CWRI homepage http: //maine. gov/labor/cwri/

CWRI Resources for Job Seekers http: //maine. gov/labor/cwri/jobseekers. htm • High Wage, In-Demand Jobs • Links to information on related occupations (O*NET Online) • Employer Locator • Research Maine employers by occupation, industry, or region • Growing/Declining Occupations • Research occupations by openings, net growth or net loss • Occupations by Wages • Look for regional concentrations and wage differentials • Average Wage Lookup • Quick reference providing average wage and link to O*Net http: //www. maine. gov/labor/cwri/outlook. html • Occupation by Industry tab • Find out which industries employ a selected occupation.