JICAs Cooperation for DRR HFA activities HFA 2

JICA’s Cooperation for DRR / HFA activities & HFA 2 = 1 st Arab Conference on DRR = March 2013 TAKEYA Kimio Senior Advisor, Japan International Cooperation Agency Takeya. kimio@jica. go. jp

Hyogo Framework for Action Overall Goal: Building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters Three Strategic Goals: The integration of disaster risk reduction into sustainable development policies and planning Development and strengthening of institutions, mechanism and capacities to build resilience to hazards The systematic incorporation of risk reduction approaches into the implementation of emergency preparedness, response and recovery Priorities for Action: HFA 1 HFA 2 HFA 3 HFA 4 HFA 5 Make Disaster Risk Reduction a Priority Know the Risks and Take Action Build Understan ding and Awareness Reduce Risk Be Prepared and Ready to Act 1 1

JICA’s Support meet to the Priority Action • The projects related to priority action 4 are increasing rapidly compared to others. • It entails the best mix of structural and non-structural measures. Priority 4 Priority 2 Priority 5 Priority 3 Priority 1 2

Trend in JICA’s Activity (Number of projects） Majority of JICA Projects up to 90’s : Structural measures from 2000 : Non structural measures Projects by combination of structural and non-structural measures are increasing. 3 3

Typical Disaster Management Cycle & DRR ・Reconstruction and Rehabilitation of Infrastructure ・Mental Health Care Mitigation Recovery ・Dispatch of Rescue team ・Provision of Rescue supply ・Hazard mapping, evacuation drill ・Organization Reinforcement ・Establishment of Disaster Management Plan ・Development of Early Warning System Preparedness Response Disaster 4

Example of Practical DRR Support Understand the risk Adapt for the Risk Prepare, Mitigate the Risk Urban Planning Response Plan Building Codec Transportation Anti Earthquake Hospital ・・・ Education ・・・ 5

Algeria Seismic Micro Zoning Survey damages of building 6

Expected Death Number 7

Expected Bridge Damage 8

Expected Water supply Damage 9

Expected Electricity Supply Damage 10

Practical Support Understand the risk Adapt for the Risk Prepare, Mitigate the Risk Business Continuity Plan for the “Country” Urban Planning Response Plan Building Codec Transportation Anti Earthquake Hospital ・・・ Education ・・・ 11

Three keys for Successful DRR Self Support or Self Defense Public Support 12 Mutual Support

JICA’s another Support to Mainstreaming the National Disaster Management for Asia • Sri Lanka – Support to Capacity Development for “Disaster Management Center” of Sri Lanka • Thailand – Support to Capacity development for “Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM)” • Indonesia – Support to National Disaster Management Plan & Regional Disaster Management Plan through BNPB, National Disaster Management Agency Capacity Development • Public Philippines Support – Support Office of Civil Defense Capacity Development 13

Disaster obstruct Development At least, Build-back-better Normal Development Recovery & Development Disaster Obstructed by Disasters, far away from MDGs Disaster Time 14

History of flood control in Tone River basin (400 years ago) Up to 15 th Century, Tone River crossed the Kanto Plain from north to south and flew into Tokyo Bay Watarase River Tone River From 1594 to 1654, Tone River was connected to Pacific Ocean by eastward channel ・After the flood in 1910, flood control measures in upper and middle reaches has changed from “flood control allowing inundation” to “sequential levees confinement” ・After this change, the maximum discharge in the Tone River Channel has increased, which became the main challenge of flood control in Tone River Basin Kokai River Kinu River Watarase River Kinu River Kokai River Tone River Source: Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan

Reduction of flood damages in Japan by continuous investment Number of fatalities This seems rare case in the world to spent so much money to prevention 6, 000 5, 000 4, 000 3, 000 2, 000 1, 000 0 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Area inundated (ha) 350, 000 300, 000 250, 000 200, 000 150, 000 100, 000 50, 000 0 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 Number of fatalities and inundation area have dramatically been reduced in Japan due to continuous investment in and efforts for flood mitigation. Source: Water Disaster Statistics, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure Transport and Tourism 2002 2007

What is the barrier for mainstreaming the DRR Development Normal Development At least, “build-back-better” Recovery & Development Disaster but DRR investment is Disaster much cheaper than recovery Obstructed by Disasters, far away from MDGs How to convince & mainstream DRR? Time Need to show the evidence ! 17

JICA developing Economic Model to show the effectiveness of DRR investment • Economical Model which can measure – GDP change – income differential and Gini coefficient change in Lorenz curve • With & Without DRR investment • Named 18

Differences with/without DRR investment to GDP without disaster With DRR Investment （with disaster） Sustainable development GDP Disaster Event Enlarged view Stop of economic activity by direct damage ⇒ Expansion of poverty Without DRR Investment （with disaster） Stagnation of economic activity and the recovery delay due to lack of funds → continuation of poverty trap Effect of DRR investment Indicators to evaluate the entire benefit (A) By the conventional benefit evaluation method, benefit of DRR investment is evaluated with collective amount of the society. (GRP and/or GDP) Time By disasters, increasing poverty and continued to be stuck in an increase in poverty, widening inequality, from the trap of poverty

Differences with/without DRR investment to Lorenz curve 1 Most Rich Income Cumulative Relative Frequency DR With R Inv es t 45度線 Better Off Near Poor Extreme Poor 0 0 0. 2 0. 4 0. 6 0. 8 Wi DR tho ut R Inv es t 1 Household No Cumulative Relative Frequency 20

Show the evidence to Policy Maker Mainstreaming DRR without disaster With DRR Investment （with disaster） Sustainable development Effect of DRR investment GDP to Goverment Policy Disaster Event Enlarged view Stop of economic activity by direct damage ⇒ Expansion of poverty Without DRR Investment （with disaster） Stagnation of economic activity and the recovery delay due to lack of funds → continuation of poverty trap Indicators to evaluate the entire benefit (A) By the conventional benefit evaluation method, benefit of DRR investment is evaluated with collective amount of the society. (GRP and/or GDP) Show Disaster Risk Reduction Time Investment account for By disasters, increasing poverty and continued to be stuck in an increase in poverty, widening inequality, from the trap of poverty Development

Deliver as a Computer Software 22

Combination of Structural Measures and Non-Structural Measures Effectiveness Investment and Effectiveness Safety Level Target Levee Barrage Reservoir System Levee Investment 23

Combination of Structural Measures and Non-Structural Measures Effectiveness Goal Mitigation Adaptation Safe and/or Resilient oo y Fl le f L oo ife d Fo re ca st ing Pr La Ap g n i n ar W Target lr y Ea St d oo Fl op r iat e Safety Level pr Re -F or e st nd ing Us e Non-Structural Measures a u ac Ev it on e r u ns c an I Levee Structural Barrage Measures Reservoir. Infrastructures) System (Basic Levee Control, Protection Investment 24

JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disaster from 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 1 • Was there anything out of our mind? The ability to recognize risk and take action properly Risk Literacy

JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disaster from 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 1 • Was there anything out of our mind? The ability to recognize risk and take action properly Risk Literacy

Tsunami Evacuation Situation in general • Population of damaged area of 3 prefectures, 1 km from coast is 460, 000, 3 km 1. 0 million, 5 km 1. 5 million • Total causalities were around 26, 000 • 460, 000 residents lived in the tsunami affected area so that evacuation ratio can be estimated more than 90 % • This high evacuation ratio achieved by legend transmission, by Tsunami Early Warning System and by evacuation drill effort • 65% of casualties were aged people, over 65 y. o. 27

Successful Evacuation by Students in Kamaishi City The students started evacuation promptly and voluntarily, following their experiences of evacuation drills. The students decided to evacuate further to higher ground based on their own observation of situation. 28 (Source: Research Center for Disaster Prevention in the Extended Tokyo Metropolitan Area, Gunma University)

Combination of Structural Measures and Non-Structural Measures Effectiveness Climate Variability? Climate Change? Safety Level Target Levee How or Project to prepare is not excess completed flood? yet Barrage Reservoir System Levee Investment 29

How about the magnitude of big earthquake? E/Q happens with long return period Lesson learned of E/Q transferred to next generation? If no, you can learn from examples • C: DATA日本の知見耐震実験www. bosai. go. jphyogomovie. html 30

How about the magnitude of big earthquake • C: DATA日本の知見耐震実験 www. bosai. go. jphyogomovie. html 31

Variety of Early Warnings for Tsunami in Japan • TV and Radio, emergency warning • Cell phone warning for earthquake • Registered earthquake broadcast service • Loud speaker evacuation order to community • others 32

Every Natural Disaster has forerunning phenomenon then we can predict disaster & let people evacuate 実写 奈良県 Even debris flow We can predict

JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disaster from 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 2 • Was there anything out of our mind? Continuous Adaptation to Change continuous improvement to deal with changing risk 34

JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disaster from 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 3 • Was there anything out of our mind? “multi-sector” and/or “multilayer of defense Redundancy i unam s T d pe stop d a ed ro ais r High 35

JICA’s Lesson Learnt from MEGA Disaster =2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood= • Was there anything out of our mind? The ability to recognize risk and take action properly Risk Literacy “multi-sector” and/or “multilayer of defense Redundancy Three Principles for No or Low Regret Investment for Sustainable Development Capacity of society To cope with disaster Continuous Adaptation to Change continuous improvement to deal with changing risk 36

JICA’s Mainstreaming DRR initiative • There are so many project which forgot to pay attention to DRR, same as Thailand industrial zone • JICA internally planning to mobilize the process mainstreaming DRR into every JICA project • Set the mandatory process to all project, “Disaster Risk Assessment” 37

Structure of Post ＨＦＡ Post MDG /SDG Prepared by Kenso Hiroki, ICHARM Goals and targets HFA 1 ～ 2015 HFA 2 New experiences, lessons and progress Items that were not recognized as subjects of HFA

Proposing tools for Post MDG/HFA Political Leaders Practitioner Donors Convince Policy Maker by DR 2 AD Model Three Principles approach for Low Regret Investment Disaster Risk Assessment to all projects 39

Thank you for your attention 40