Janusz Cofala Zbigniew Klimont International Institute for Applied
Janusz Cofala, Zbigniew Klimont International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Development of the NEC baseline scenario State of play
National scenarios provided for the NEC review Country Energy Agriculture AUSTRIA Yes ITALY Yes BELGIUM Yes No LATVIA Yes CYPRUS No No LITHUANIA No No CZECH REP. Yes LUXEMBOURG No No DENMARK Yes MALTA No No ESTONIA No Yes NETHERLANDS Yes FINLAND Yes POLAND Yes FRANCE Yes PORTUGAL Yes GERMANY Yes No SLOVAKIA Yes No GREECE No No SLOVENIA Yes HUNGARY Yes SPAIN Yes No IRELAND Yes SWEDEN Yes ITALY Yes UK Yes LATVIA Yes Total 19 16
Available energy and CO 2 projections • PRIMES “with climate policy” scenario 2004 used for CAFE (“PRIMES CAFE”) – all MS • PRIMES baseline projection 2005 (“PRIMES 2005”) – all MS • National energy projections for NEC, late 2005, - 19 MS • National CO 2 projections submitted in the “Policies and Measures” reports, July 2005 – 12 MS • National CO 2 (and energy) projections reported in the 4 th National Communications to UNFCCC, March 2006, – 11 MS
Energy projections EU-25 1990 2000 2020
2005 energy projections for 2020 (1) [PJ]
2005 energy projections for 2020 (2) [PJ]
2005 energy projections for 2020 (3) [PJ]
Comparison of CO 2 estimates for 1990 excl. LULUCF
CO 2 projections for 2010 relative to 1990 (provisional GAINS estimates)
CO 2 projections for 2020 National CO 2 vs. National NEC energy projections, relative to 1990 (provisional GAINS estimates)
CO 2 projections for 2020 National NEC energy projections vs. PRIMES, relative to 1990 (provisional GAINS estimates)
Conclusions • Some inconsistencies between national CO 2 and NEC energy projections not yet resolved – further consultations • There are differences between national and PRIMES energy projections for MS • Both projections are likely to exceed in 2020 - at EU level the Kyoto target for 2012 • This is relevant because air pollutant (baseline) emissions and control costs are sensitive towards the stringency of the GHG/CO 2 target
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