January 26 2010 Electoral Institutions and Electoral Outcomes

January 26, 2010 Electoral Institutions and Electoral Outcomes

Why Elections? � In representative democracies, their purpose is to allow voters to express their political preferences � Elections provide an opportunity for citizens to render a verdict on the past performance of their government � Elections have implications for who governs and what policies a government will pursue.

Questions � Millions of people vote. Why? � Do voters have the capacity to cast an “informed decision”? While many individuals do not appear to be sufficiently informed, they appear collectively to make sensible decisions? Why? � What choices do voters have? Many or few? Meaningful or not? Does it matter? � Why do parties gain or lose support? � Are there “better” ways to elect a government? � Are there “better” ways to have an influence?

What is it being elected? � Parties � Candidates � Ballot measures

Parliamentary Systems � Executive chosen by parliament which appoints not only the PM but the entire cabinet � Unicameral vs. bicameral Upper house is generally less powerful and not usually elected. � New elections can be called at short notice � Party leaders are in parliament and generally known

Presidential Systems � President is directly elected � President appoints the cabinet � Fixed terms

Consequences � Candidates play a more important role in Presidential systems � Conflict over policy is more likely to arise in Presidential systems because presidents must share power with the legislature.

Electoral Systems � Plurality (or first past the post) Single member (usually) Winner take all systems; seat awarded to candidate who receives the most votes UK, US, Canada, India � Proportional Representation (PR) Systems Multi-member Use of Party Lists (ie. Netherlands) Single Transferable Vote (Ireland) � Mixed Systems Plurality and PR used to elect candidates in the same chamber Corrective vs. Non-corrective

Closed Party List Ballot

Open Party List Ballot

Mixed-Member PR Ballot

Allocation of Seats in MMP

See IDEA website for details

Consequences � Plurality systems facilitate two party competition � Plurality systems often create “manufactured” majorities � PR is associated with multi-party systems. � Rules thus have an influence on how much choice voters have.

Manufactured Majorities New Zealand Elections (1938 -1996) Year 1938 1943 1946 1949 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 National Vote Seats 40 31 43 43 48 48 52 58 54 63 44 56 44 49 48 58 47 56 44 52 45 52 42 35 47 58 40 54 39 49 36 39 44 41 48 69 35 51 34 37 Difference -9 0 0 6 9 12 5 10 9 8 7 -7 11 14 10 3 -3 21 16 3 Labour Vote Seats 56 66 48 56 51 53 47 43 46 38 44 44 48 51 43 43 44 44 42 42 44 45 48 60 40 34 40 42 39 45 43 59 48 59 35 30 35 45 28 31 Difference 10 8 2 -4 -8 0 3 0 0 0 1 12 -6 2 6 16 11 -5 10 3 Other Vote Seats 4 3 9 1 1 0 0 0 12 0 8 0 9 0 14 6 11 3 10 5 13 8 20 4 22 5 21 2 8 0 17 1 30 4 38 33

Accountability: Can the Voters Throw the Rascals Out? � Plurality systems are assumed to promote greater accountability because it is easier for voters to identify who to blame/reward. � PR systems often produce coalition governments (shared power � Coalition governments may make it more difficult for voters to figure out who is to blame.