It is a capital mistake to theorize before

“It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly, one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. ” —Sherlock Holmes

What data needed? Where data obtained? What challenges faced? How to overcome challenges?

What data needed?

What data needed? What does PBO do? Budgetary analysis Costing proposals and legislation Economic and fiscal forecasting

What data needed? Budgetary analysis

Budgetary analysis Definition: Evaluating budget to see if it will work or is working. What data needed? • The Budget • Estimated spending by program activity • Inflows and outflows by program activity • Capital investments by program activity • Staffing changes by program activity

Costing proposals and legislation Definition: Estimating the costs of proposals (e. g. defence acquisitions) and legislation (e. g. changes to the Criminal Code). What data needed? • • • Sui generis Statistical data Cost data Non-cost data Technical data

Economic and fiscal forecasting Definition: Forecasting economic growth, government revenues, expenses, operating balance, debt and deficits. What data needed? • Macroeconomic data (GDP, inflation, interest rates, Where data import/exports) obtained? • Key assumptions of the government’s forecast

Economic and fiscal forecasting Budgetary analysis Where data obtained? Costing proposals and legislation Economic and fiscal forecasting

Where data obtained? What challenges faced? Government departments Budgetary analysis Costing proposals Statistical and agencies legislation Private Government departments enterprise Public sources Government departments Economic and fiscal Statistical agencies forecasting

Government departments • Reluctance to disclose and tendency towards secrecy What challenges faced? How to overcome challenges?

Government departments • Develop strong, informal, working relationships at all levels • Formulate requests as precise as possible but as broad as necessary • Follow up judiciously and document transparently • Offer alternatives when stonewalled • Pursue alternative methods of obtaining data • Seek alternative sources of data • Report to and seek parliamentary assistance • Seek judicial assistance How to overcome challenges?