Ist Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Workshop
Ist Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Workshop San José Costa Rica Mayo 2003 LA-06 Climate change Water resources Extreme events
Assessment of some GCM’s features and Applications of Downscaling in the Central American Region Eric J. Alfaro and Jorge A. Amador Center for Geophysical Research (CIGEFI), Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, (LIAP, School of Physics), Collaborators: Werner Stolz, IMN and CIGEFI-UCR Erick Rivera, CIGEFI-UCR Mauricio Blanco, CIGEFI-UCR University of Costa Rica 27 -30, May 2003
Downscaling, Why? • It is justified whenever GCM (or RCM) simulations of variable(s) used for impacts modelling are unrealistic at the temporal and spatial scales of interest, either because the impact scales are below the climate model’s resolution, or because of model deficiencies. At the same time the GCM must have demonstrable skill for large-scale variables that are strongly correlated with local processes. (Wilby & Dawson, 2001).
Zonal Wind, u, Est. Juan Santamaría
Some GCM’s Used • • • CSIRO (Australia) CCCma (Canadá) Had. CM 3 (Inglaterra) NCAR-PCM (USA): ECHAM 4. 5 (EC)
GCM’s Grid Points, Wind Magnitude 19°N 15°N CCCma-vientos NCAR-vientos CSIRO-vientos Had. CM 3 -vientos
Wind
Wind
ECHAM 4. 5. Monthly means for 1990 - 1999. Run stars: January 3, 1950, 00 Z.
ECHAM 4. 5. Monthly means for 1990 - 1999. Run stars: January 3, 1950, 00 Z.
MSD
Tair OBS CCM 3 Precip MSD
observed CCM 3 ITCZ
SAN ANDRÉS ISLAND: Rainfall Climatology 1971 -2000 19°N 15°N Isla de San Andrés
GCM’s Grid Points, Rainfall 17°N 15°N CCCma-lluvia NCAR-lluvia CSIRO-lluvia Had. CM 3 -lluvia
Had. CM 3
Col. Dra. Xian Fu, UEA
CGCM 2 CSIROmk 2 CSM 1. 3 ECHam 4 GFDLR 15 b MRI 2 CCSRNIES 2 DOEPCM Had. CM 3 MAD, IPCC Data Temp(°C) Prec(mm) DJF JJA 2. 18 1. 79 171. 36 310. 24 2. 14 1. 86 165. 84 239. 86 2. 23 2. 13 197. 72 382. 55 3. 09 1. 76 181. 91 227. 83 1. 98 1. 87 153. 90 272. 06 2. 73 2. 65 201. 23 455. 85 2. 13 2. 32 181. 82 317. 30 2. 49 2. 29 172. 40 441. 73 2. 33 2. 46 166. 87 355. 21
A 1: a future world of very rapid economic growth, low population growth and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technology. Major underlying themes are economic, cultural convergence and capacity building, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. In this world people pursue personal wealth rather than environmental quality.
Resolución: 3. 7° lat x 3. 75° lon
Records Used
Precipitation Predictor: Vorticity at 850 h. Pa.
Precipitation Predictor: Specific Humidity at 500 h. Pa.
Precipitation Predictor: Specific Humidity at 500 h. Pa.
Precipitation Predictor: Wind Magnitude at 850 h. Pa.
Temp. min Predictor: Near Surface Specific Humidity.
Temp. max Predictor: Near surface Divergence.
Acknowledgements AIACC University of Costa Rica NOAA/OGP
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