Islamic State Insights from Strategic Subcultures Theory and

Islamic State: Insights from Strategic Subcultures Theory and Combatting Terrorist Propaganda ALEX BURNS (ALEX@ALEXBURNS. NET) SPS SYMPOSIUM, 28 TH OCTOBER 2015 PHD CANDIDATE, SCHOOL OF POLITICS & SOCIAL INQUIRY, MONASH UNIVERSITY

2015 Thesis Milestones Mid-Candidature Review Panel (26 th October 2015). Research training in intellectual property rights and business development. 35, 000 words draft working notes written in 2015. Focus on Process Tracing as main methodology: identify causal mechanisms (e. g. cultural transmission, social learning, and folklore). Identification of possible areas for future research.

Research Methodology Small-N case study using “heuristic” approach: existing literature versus strategic subculture explanations (George & Bennett 2005). Selection of deviant and extreme cases (Gerring 2012). Process tracing that identifies the causal mechanisms and processes that link X 1 (terrorist organisation exists and rapidly grows) and Y 1 outcome (survival over a significant time period and carries out successful terrorist campaigns) (George & Bennett 2005; Brun & Pedersen 2013; Bennett & Checkel 2015). Qualitative data coding (causation / narrative / thematic) of primary and secondary sources (Saldana 2013; Weller & Barnes 2014; Guest, Mac. Queen & Namey 2012). Beginning of database / codebook for Large-N future research.

Strategic Culture Defined: Jack Snyder Formulated in 1977 by Jack Snyder for a RAND monograph on Ford and Carter administration détente and the Soviet Union “Individuals are socialized into a distinctly Soviet mode of thinking. . . a set of general beliefs, attitudes and behavioral patterns. . . that places them on the level of “culture” rather than mere “policy”. . . ” [emphasis added] (Snyder 1977: v) “Culture is perpetuated not only by individuals but also by organizations. ” (Snyder 1977: 9). “Strategic subculture: . . . a subsection of the broader strategic community. . . Reasonably distinct beliefs and attitudes. ” (Snyder 1977: 10).

Islamic State as Proto-Strategic Subculture Decision Elite / Senior Leadership Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s elevation to IS leadership in 2010 Deputies (for Iraq and Syria), Shura Council, and military leader Able to regenerate despite air bombing campaigns / drone attacks Strategic Vision Re-establish the Caliphate declared on 29 th June 2014 in Mosul, Iraq Geographic control of areas of northern Iraq and Syria Military Strategy Urban attacks to spark sectarian conflict with Shia and Alawi Muslims (Lister 28) Attrition / psychological warfare campaigns against Iraqi national forces (Lister 29) Acquisition of Iraq Army and United States Army equipment force projection

Islamic State’s ‘Shell-State’ Strategy Loretta Napoleoni (2014: 32) contends that Islamic State is using a ‘shell-state’ strategy to set-up the administrative and legislative structure of a nation-state Control of oil refinery and water infrastructure in northern Iraq and Syria Geopolitical integration of Sunni Muslim communities ‘Shell-state’ strategy enables comparative analysis with Hamas, Hezbollah and other terrorist organisations Possible comparative analysis with Michael G. Findley, Daniel L. Nielson and J. C. Sharman’s Global Shell Games: Experiments in Transnational Relations, Crime and Terrorism (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014)

Understanding Political Propaganda “is a kind of speech that fundamentally involves political, economic, aesthetic or rational ideals, mobilized for a political purpose” (Stanley 2015: 52) Supporting Propaganda uses “emotional or other nonrational means” to anchor political ideals (Stanley 2015: 53) Undermining Propaganda corrodes political ideals (Stanley 2015: 53) Media sources and schools in liberal democracies are “a site or mechanism for the production of propaganda” (Stanley 2015: 54)

Islamic State’s Propaganda Islamic State uses Supporting Propaganda and information control to promote its Caliphate vision and to attract new recruits Islamic State’s jihadist decapitation and torture videos use fear conditioning to target the Iraq Army and Western audiences as a form of the Social Learning mechanism (Hoppitt and Laland 2013: 54 -55) Genocide-like targeting of religious and minority groups including Alawites, Yazidis, and Druze Response from Western writers like Jay Sekulow (American Centre for Law and Justice) fits a Threat Escalation microfoundation of strategic culture (Dr Alan Bloomfield, UNSW)

Combatting Terrorist Propaganda FY 2015 -16 Federal Budget the Australian Government committed $A 21. 7 million for the next four years “to limit the impact of extremist narratives on domestic audiences” (Commonwealth of Australia 2015: 62) Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) approaches (Australian Government 2015; Monash University GTRe. C 2010 -2013; Tahiri and Grossman 2013; Lentini 2012) Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s “Death Cult” rhetoric (Lentini 2015) as Undermining Propaganda Sentiment analysis (Liu 2015) and computational analysis (Subrahmanian et al 2013) methods to examine Supporting Propaganda examples in social media Understand propaganda in a possibly multipolar world

Case Study Provisional Findings Strategic subculture framework focuses on Islamic State’s rapid growth Re-establishing the Caliphate illustrates a State Emulation strategy Social Learning mechanism is key to jihadist recruitment / training and combat readiness Cultural Transmission and Folklore mechanisms underpin social media strategy Islamic State’s leadership is publicly known and can be profiled ‘at a distance’ Great Power response provides test of national strategic cultures Islamic State has exploited meso- and macro-level weaknesses in Iraq government; 2011 -present Syrian civil war and Assad regime; and United States foreign policies on Iraq and Syria United States proxy war strategy using Free Syrian Army and other actors has been unable to halt Islamic State’s recruitment or use of social media networks to mobilise Westerners Russian air bombing campaign in October 2015 reflects Jack Snyder’s original research in 1977 Spillover effect of Syrian refugee flows into EU countries (Greece, Austria, Germany)

Discussion