ISAB Snake River 2010 SpillTransport Review ISAB 2010

ISAB Snake River 2010 Spill-Transport Review ISAB 2010 -2 – Presentation to Council April 14, 2010

Assignment On February 25, 2010, NOAA Fisheries requested the ISAB review their proposal to defer spill and move to max transport for May 2010. l The NOAA review request included reference to reports by NWFSC, FPC, USACE, and ISAB. l In March 2010 ODFW raised some questions and provided additional information. l

Independent Scientific Advisory Board for the Northwest Power and Conservation Council, Columbia River Basin Indian Tribes, and National Marine Fisheries Service 851 SW 6 th Avenue, Suite 1100 Portland, Oregon 97204 J. Richard Alldredge, Ph. D. , Professor of Statistics at Washington State University. James Congleton, Ph. D. , Emeritus Fisheries Professor, University of Idaho Nancy Huntly, Ph. D. , Professor of Wildlife Biology at Idaho State University. Roland Lamberson, Ph. D. , Professor of Mathematics and Director of Environmental Systems Graduate Program at Humboldt State University. Colin Levings, Ph. D. , Scientist Emeritus and Sessional Researcher at Centre for Aquaculture and Environmental Research, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Canada. Robert J. Naiman, Ph. D. , Professor of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences at U of Washington William Pearcy, Ph. D. , Professor Emeritus of Oceanography at Oregon State University. Bruce Rieman, Ph. D, Research Scientist Emeritus, U. S. Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station Greg Ruggerone, Ph. D. , Fisheries Scientist for Natural Resources Consultants, Affiliated Research Scientist Alaska Salmon Program at the School of Fisheries, U of Washington Dennis Scarnecchia, Ph. D. , Professor of Fish and Wildlife Resources at University of Idaho. Peter Smouse, Ph. D. , Professor of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources at Rutgers University. Chris Wood, Ph. D. , Head of Conservation Biology Section at Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Canada.

Acknowledgments l ISAB colleagues l Council staff l NOAA l FPC l ODFW l USFWS l Other contributors

Scope of ISAB Review l Focus on new data, analyses and conclusions within the context of the previous ISAB spill-transport report (ISAB 2008 -5). l Does not make policy recommendations; rather attempts to present current scientific understanding in a form that can be used by policy makers.

Synopsis—NOAA, ODFW, FPC, and USFWS l NOAA: transport provides higher SARs for s/s Chinook and steelhead; T: M ratios >1 -data from 1998 -2008. l ODFW: increased spill associated with increased in-river survival for s/s Chinook and steelhead between LGR and MCN.

Synopsis—NOAA, ODFW, FPC, and USFWS (cont’d) l FPC: potential effects on other species, effects of transport on straying, comparison of spill versus transport in 2005 and 2007. l USFWS: additional years would improve understanding of spill effects under lowflow conditions and potential costs of no spill to lamprey populations.

ISAB Conclusion 1: Multi-species Perspective l Combinations of transport and in-river migration with spill spreads the risk across species, stocks, and the ecosystem l Offers an approach that can shed light on uncertainties in the longer-term dataset.

ISAB Conclusion 2: Operational Changes – Lessons Learned A mixed strategy in low-flow conditions provides an important opportunity to learn from the concurrent spill and transport mix of recent years.

ISAB Conclusion 3: Addressing Uncertainties - Lamprey l. A gap in knowledge remains on the effects of spill-transport operations on downstream juvenile Pacific lamprey migration. l. A means of tracking migrating juvenile lamprey is needed.

ISAB Conclusion 4: Addressing Uncertainties - Sockeye Continuing new studies to examine the relative benefits of spill and transport for sockeye could reduce uncertainties about sockeye juvenile migration.

ISAB Conclusion 5: Addressing Uncertainties – Straying l Out-of-basin straying is a concern with reports that transported steelhead have higher straying rates and lower homing rates than fish migrating in-river.

ISAB Conclusion 6: Spill as the Baseline – Ecological and Evolutionary Considerations The premise that spill more closely mimics natural evolutionary and ecological processes than maximum transportation argues for a mixed strategy to balance risks and conserve diversity and future potential.

Overall From a scientific standpoint, a mixed strategy for spill and transport is best supported by the available science. Ecological and evolutionary considerations provide an important framework in support of this strategy.

Thank you!