Is Ames growing too rapidly or too slowly

Is Ames growing too rapidly or too slowly, and should we care about the answer? Peter F. Orazem Department of Economics Iowa State University pfo@iastate. edu 294 -8656 December 28, 2007 To read original research papers, go to http: //www. econ. iastate. edu/faculty/orazem/Ames/AMES_index. htm

How has Ames grown compared to the Iowa average, 2000 -2007 Source: http: //www. iowaworkforce. org/trends/emphistory. html Change is computed as October 1999 through October 2007. These are the latest numbers available. Note: 9 of the 13 largest employers in Ames are in govt. /nonprofit

Ames Should Grow Faster than Iowa Average Urban County Adjacent to Metro Contains Interstate Contains a Research I University

Suitable comparisons • Counties in the Des Moines Metro area • Midwestern counties with Research 1 Universities

Source: Liesl Eathington, SETA

1990

Since 1990, Ames has been growing more slowly than most counties in the Des Moines metro Since 1980, Ames has been growing more slowly than most Midwestern counties with Research I universities

Why does slow growth matter to Ames? Ames is part of the Greater Des Moines market Commuting Information Education Regional Transportation Shopping Entertainment

Firms can locate anywhere in the Des Moines metro As the center of Greater Des Moines aggregate income growth moves further west and south of Des Moines… Employment Shopping Entertainment Will be further away from Ames

Example: commuting patterns STORY Eathington, Liesl. “Characteristics of Growth and Change in Iowa’s Workforce: Issues for Families and Communities” http: //www. seta. iastate. edu/library. aspx? lmode=2&ltopic=3

Eathington, Liesl. “Characteristics of Growth and Change in Iowa’s Workforce: Issues for Families and Communities” http: //www. seta. iastate. edu/library. aspx? lmode=2&ltopic=3

Should we care that Ames has experienced slow growth? • • School closings Lost cultural amenities Lost shopping diversity Flat tax base Example: Local option sales tax and school investment local option (SILO) tax

Data Source: http: //www. seta. iastate. edu/retail/publications/2005 rta/

Per capita sales tax receipts have fallen even more—Have people stopped shopping or are they going elsewhere? Data Source: http: //www. seta. iastate. edu/retail/publications/2005 rta/

Ames had 46 apparel stores in 1998, 35 in 2005 STATE NORM AMES SALES ARE LOW RELATIVE TO POTENTIAL SALES BASED ON POPULATION AND INCOME Source: Liesl Eathington, 2005 Retail Trade Analysis Reports for Ames, Iowa http: //www. seta. iastate. edu/retail/publications/2005 rta/

Ames cannot use Local Option Sales Tax to pay for the new pool Ankeny and Johnston can pay for new public amenities from the increase in sales tax receipts.

Past source of growth was the public sector which is in decline Ames needs private sector growth just to maintain its current level of income and employment

Does Ames support entrepreneurship? Comparison with Lawrence Kansas

Story County has lost 14% of its proprietors since 1992

Ames business climate is not attracting or retaining investors

Do regulations discourage investors?

Do Ames Regulations on Land Use Make Things Better or Worse?

Land Use Policy • Ames has stressed “village development” using high density housing and mixing businesses and homes to make walkable neighborhoods to prevent sprawl. • Note that in many cities, the “village” would be the size of Ames.

Bloomington Heights Lots of houses Northridge 414 homes Original Plan for Somerset Development

In places with cheap land…. Families don’t want to raise their children next door to a bar They want a house with a yard

Bloomington Heights and Northridge represent the fastest growing area in the Gilbert school district

If we select priority growth areas correctly, shouldn’t they grow more rapidly?

Ames Land Use Plan Priority Growth Areas Ontario U. S. 30 South Dakota Southwest Growth Priority Area

If Ames wants to maintain student numbers, Ames needs to… • Add jobs for young families • Have housing that young families want …. not Potemkin apartment complexes

Does Ames look appealing to investors?

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Why isn’t Main Street in the middle of town?

Ames, 1875

CAMPUSTOWN, 1912

Suitable Comparisons Counties in the Des Moines Metropolitan Area Midwestern counties containing large public universities

1982 1990

SUMMARY INFORMATION ON GROWTH