Iraq Timeline The Bush Argument 1 2 3

Iraq Timeline

The Bush Argument 1. 2. 3. 4. Iraq has WMD: October 2002 NIE Unfinished Business: 1998 Iraq Liberation Act Spreading Democracy Iraq and al-Qaeda? 1. 2. 3. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence: US Intelligence Community’s Prewar Intelligence on Iraq, July 2004 (page 32 and 304 -370) Levin Report, October 2004 Pentagon Report, August 2007

2002 -2003 Bush 43 Makes the Case • VP Cheney speech at VFW, August 2002; • UN Security Council Res. 1441 (11/02) • Congressional Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq, PL 107 -243, 10/16/02 • National Security Adviser Rice, January 2003: “mushroom cloud” comment • Secretary of State Colin Powell’s United Nations presentation on Iraqi WMD (February 2003)

Debates About the War: • Should we invade? • After Saddam Hussein is gone? • Troop Levels needed?

March 19, 2003: US Invasion April 9, 2003

May 1, 2003

But… Mission Complicated Insurgency • Ex-Ba’ath and ex-military • Al-Qaeda in Iraq, 2004 • Kurdish Independence? • Shiite militias (Iran? ) – Moqtada al-Sadr

Democracy or Civil War • Internal Issues – Will this be like Japan and Germany after WWII – Or Bosnia

Al-Qaeda after Invasion • AQ in Iraq • Abu Musab al-Zarqawi • (killed June 2006) • AQ after Iraq (Declassified April 2006 NIE)

Regional Dynamics • Iran • Syria • Al-Qaeda in Iraq

Political Developments? Honest Attempts to Build Government • Ethnic parties • Religious parties • Kurds vs. Sunni Arab vs. Shi’ite Arab • Shi’ite vs. Shi’ite • Sunni vs. Sunni • OIL

Positive Political Developments • 7/03 Interim Governing Council • 12/03 Saddam Hussein captured • 6/04 New government under PM Iyad Allawi takes over • 1/05 Election of Transitional National Assembly • 8/05 Shiite and Kurds coalition writes constitution • 10/05 Constitution approved by referendum • 12/05 Legislature chosen under constitution – Council of Representatives • 4/06 New government chosen by Council of Representatives

Public Opinion of US Around the World Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project report, “America's Image Slips, But Allies Share U. S. Concerns Over Iran, Hamas, ” 6/13/06: http: //pewglobal. org/reports/display. php? Report. ID=252

US public opinion turns against the war Source: Scott Keeter, Trends in Public Opinion about the War in Iraq, 2003 -2007, March 2007: http: //pewresearch. org/pubs/431/trends-inpublic-opinion-about-the-war-in-iraq-2003 -2007

Bush 43 Approval Ratings

Questions • How could the US have been so wrong about Iraq WMD? • How could the US have been so wrong about aftermath? • We’re there: what do we do? – The Bush surge – Iraq Study Group – Democratic candidates: Withdrawal Plans

Good News? • Awakening Councils (summer 2006) • US Army/USMC Counterinsurgency Manual (FM 324/MCWP 3 -33. 5) • “The Surge” (2007) General David Petraeus

The Result of Strategy Shift From Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq, March 2008 Do. D Report to Congress, p. 18