IRAQ 2003 Presented By Karin Tsumagari Jason Jensen

IRAQ 2003 Presented By: Karin Tsumagari Jason Jensen Mahnoor Rizvi Jun Usami

Agenda �Background- Karin �Key Tipping Points- Jason �Failures of the International Society- Mahnoor �Analysis- Jun �Iraq Today- Jun �Food for Thought- Jason

Iraq War (2003) and Insurgency � March-April, 2003 Conventional war between the US-led coalition and Iraqi military and paramilitary forces → US-led coalition’s rapid victory over Iraqi (para)militaries such as Republican Guard � May, 2003 -2011, US-led occupation’s fight against insurgency ・instability due to the sectarian violence by both Sunni and Shi’ite militias

Background � 1990 Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait � 1990 -91 The Persian Gulf War between Iraq and US-led coalition (partially) authorized by UNSC � Iraqi Ba’th Party and its head Saddam Hussein brutally oppressed the Kurdish and Shi’ite’s uprisings to keep his power

Intervention to Iraq in 1991 � 1991 US-led coalition intervention to Iraq by referring to the flow of Kurdish refugees from Iraq as a threat to “international peace and security” ・Safe heaven in northern Iraq for Kurds ・No Fly zones in northern and southern Iraq for both Kurds and Shi’ites ・economic sanctions ・weapons inspections

Conflict continues (1990 s) � 1993 a US missile attack on Iraqi intelligence headquarters to retaliate for its attempt to assassinate US President Bush while he was in Kuwait � 1995 UNSC Resolution 986 easing economic sanctions on Iraq to let it buy food and medicines (“the oil for food program”) � 1998 Operation Desert Fox under President Clinton to bomb Iraq’s alleged facilities of WMD

Conflict continues (2000 s) � 2001 US and British bombing Iraq to destroy Iraq’s air defense network � 2002 UNSC Resolution 1441 as “a final opportunity to comply with its disarmament obligations under relevant resolutions of the Council (3)” demanding the reentering of UN inspectors and compliance with all previous resolutions

Build up of the war � US President Bush and British PM Blair claiming Iraq continued its military programs while French President Chirac and German Chancellor Schroder seeking to continue inspections � 2003 March, President Bush declared the end of diplomacy and issued an ultimatum to Saddam, which was opposed by France, Germany, Russia, and other countries

War and peace? � 2003 March, US-led coalition began attacking Iraq after the Saddam’s refusal to leave � Although the war itself ended in 2003, US-led occupation s continued until 2011 to stabilize Iraq

Key Tipping Points

September 11, 2001: Al-Qaeda Operatives Successfully Carry out a Strategic Attack Against the United States � -19 Al-Qaeda operatives hijack four airliners ◦ Two planes crash into World Trade Center ◦ One plane crashes into Pentagon ◦ One plane crashes in a field in Pennsylvania ◦ Over 3, 000 people were killed during the attacks in New York and Washington D. C.

September 12, 2002 - Bush addresses the United Nations � Reiterates the failure of Iraq to honor previous UN resolutions, dating back to 1991. � President Bush condemns Iraq's failure to respects Human Rights. --Used a report published by the U. N. Commission on Human Rights for supporting evidence. � Duty of the International Community to act to avoid "condemning the Middle East to more year of bloodshed and fear. “ � In summary, President Bush warned the UN that the United States was prepared to act militarily against Iraq if Saddam Hussein failed to honor previous commitments to disarm and allow inspectors inside his nation.

October 11, 2002: Senate Approves Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq � -H. J. RES. 114 - Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq Resolution of 2002 ◦ 10/02/2002 Introduced in House ◦ 10/07/2002 Reported (Amended) by the Committee on International Relations. H. Rept. 107 -721. ◦ 10/10/2002 Passed/agreed to in House: On passage Passed by the Yeas and Nays: 296 - 133 (Roll no. 455). ◦ 10/11/2002 Passed/agreed to in Senate: Passed Senate without amendment and with a preamble by Yea-Nay Vote. 77 - 23. Record Vote Number: 237. ◦ 10/15/2002 Presented to President. ◦ 10/16/2002 Signed by President. ◦ 10/16/2002 Became Public Law No: 107 -243.

October 11, 2002: Senate Approves Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq (Cont. ) Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq Resolution of 2002 - Expresses � � support for the President's efforts to: (1) strictly enforce through the United Nations Security Council all relevant Security Council resolutions regarding Iraq; and (2) obtain prompt and decisive action by the Security Council to ensure that Iraq abandons its strategy of delay, evasion, and noncompliance and promptly and strictly complies with all relevant Security Council resolutions. Authorizes the President to use the U. S. armed forces to: (1) defend U. S. national security against the continuing threat posed by Iraq; and (2) enforce all relevant Security Council resolutions regarding Iraq. Directs the President, prior to or as soon as possible (but no later than 48 hours) after exercising such authority, to make available to the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President pro tempore of the Senate his determination that: (1) reliance on further diplomatic or peaceful means alone will not achieve the above purposes; and (2) acting pursuant to this joint resolution is consistent with the United States and other countries continuing to take necessary actions against international terrorists and terrorist organizations, including those who planned, authorized, committed, or aided the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. Declares that this section is intended to constitute specific statutory authorization for use of the armed forces, consistent with requirements of the War Powers Resolution.

February 5, 2003: US Secretary of State, Collin Powell, Presents Evidence of Iraq's Failure to Disarm to the UN - "Clearly, Suddam Hussein and his https: //prezi. com/ln 2 auya_yts 9/edit/ � � � regime will stop at nothing until something stops him". Claimed obstruction of the inspections, including hiding evidence from UN inspectors. Claimed numerous intelligence reports verified Iraq possessed illegal weapons; including ballistic missiles with ranges up to 900 KM Claimed Iraq had ties with Al Qaeda Stressed that Iraq was already found guilty of material breach of its obligations stretching back over 16 previous resolutions and 12 years. � #56_156106

March 19, 2003: Operation Iraqi Freedom (Invasion Phase) � United States, United Kingdom, Australia and Poland invade Iraq � May 1 st, 2003: President Bush declared an end to major combat operations in Iraq. ◦ 172 Coalition Forces (139 US, 33 UK) ◦ Estimated Iraqi combatant fatalities: 30, 000 � For the most part, UN remains silent about invasion

October 7, 2004: The CIA Releases a Report that Concludes Iraq does not Possess WMD's � Report was composed by the Iraq Survey Group. - ◦ Between 1, 200 -1, 500 pages long � Part of the report covers Iraq's attempt to lift UN sanctions against them by offering discounted oil prices to members of the security council; China, France and Russia. ◦ "[Saddam] wanted to end sanctions while preserving the capability to resume production of weapons of mass destruction when sanctions were lifted. “ � Bottom line- Iraq did not have WMD's when coalition forces invaded.

Failures of the International Community

Inaction � To stop the US and its allies from invading Iraq ◦ No remarkable developments were made according to the UNMOVIC’s reports ◦ But US conducted a surprise military invasion of Iraq ◦ None of the UN members took a clear position against the war, giving US an opportunity to dominate � No resolutions were passed during the war concerning the situation in Iraq or the civilian casualties ◦ The first resolution passed after the war was on 22 nd May 2003 ◦ Regarding the removal of economic sanctions placed in 1990 and recognized the US and the UK as the legitimate authority in Iraq � UNSC’s credibility questionable ◦ Bypassed, feared the US and indifferent

Delayed Response � On September 16, 2004 Secretary General of United Nations, Kofi Annan speaking on the invasion, said, "I have indicated it was not in conformity with the UN Charter. From our point of view, from the charter point of view, it was illegal. “ � � Lack of conviction in terms of decisions by the council What could have been the UN’s credibility had the US claims been true? Kofi Annan

Inefficient Response Legal Humanitarian After the war had began, UN did not send any kind of help even after looking at the deteriorating situation in Iraq � Instead of deploying forces to help in policing, UN pulled out of Iraq due to the bombing of the HQs in August 2003 � Reporting of war crimes � Humanitarian Crisis in Iraq � Bush and Blair weren’t brought to the International Court of Justice �

R 2 P Framework for War Just Cause Right Intention Last Resort Proportional Means Reasonable Prospects Right Authority

R 2 P for War � Just Cause ØFor WMDs (preemptive selfdefense) � Right Intention HI was not the primary objective Was the scale, duration and intensity the minimum necessary to secure human protection? ØNot originally for HI ØFor WMDs (preemptive selfdefense) � HI ØHans Blix’s UN weapons inspectors should have had more time to investigate � Right � Last Resort was not primary objective Even in sense of WMDs, there was not enough evidence to go in Authority (almost) Unilateral, no authorization from UN

R 2 P Framework for Insurgency Just Cause Right Intention Last Resort Proportional Means Reasonable Prospects Right Authority

Just Cause � Saddam Hussein’s brutality � 250, 000 -450, 000 deaths in three decades � Breach of natural law and positive international law � Operation Anfal 1988 West’s “useful idiot” � Uprisings in 1991 � No large scale loss of life at the moment of invasion � No ethnic cleansing at the moment of invasion � No imminent killings that were likely to occur � 1980 s and 1990 s were worse → why now?

Right Intention � Not originally for HI � Weapons of Mass Destruction � Bush’s personal grudge? � Links with terrorist network � Democratic transformation Last Resort � Criminal prosecution � International indictment

Proportional Means *HI was not the primary objective Was the scale, duration and intensity the minimum necessary to secure human protection? � large scale invasion Too big of a scale? � Soldiers were not trained for policing � Civilians were never the main target

Reasonable Prospects � “It was entirely foreseeable that Saddam Hussein’s downfall would lead to civil disorder. ” (K. Roth, 2006) � Sunni-Shiite-Kurd Clash Ex. Mahdi Army � Did not anticipate affect on Iraqi power-structure, culture, populace Ex. Iraqi culture pamphlets handed out to soldiers Result→ongoing chaos even today, major casualties on both sides Right Authority � US- “Humanitarian intervention” � UK, Australia- Resolutions 678, 687, 1441 “serious consequences” � The UN had refused to authorize the war (*sovereignty) � ‘Serious consequences’ doesn’t mean permission to use force

Three Responsibilities � Responsibility to Prevent Saddam Hussein’s brutal killings ignored West’s “useful idiot” � Responsibility to React Did not do enough toward Saddam � Responsibility to Rebuild No stable government Decade long reconstruction better or for worse Still in progress?

Iraq Today � the terrorist network, the Islamic State established a caliphate in Syria and al-Sham under leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi � Shiite Maliki regime alienated Sunnis → Shiite Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi � American intervention in Iraq ◦ ◦ Diplomatic tactics to alleviate ethnic divides Supplying weapons Humanitarian aid (food, water, etc. ) Air strikes � Crude terrorist group as acknowledged threat and actor in the world