INTRODUCTION TO THEORY OF CHANGE www britishcouncil org
INTRODUCTION TO THEORY OF CHANGE www. britishcouncil. org
SO WHAT IS IT? www. britishcouncil. org 2
SO WHAT IS IT? • Theory of Change is essentially a comprehensive description and illustration of how and why a desired change is expected to happen in a particular context. • It is focused in particular on mapping out or “filling in” what has been described as the “missing middle” between what a program or change initiative does (its activities or interventions) and how these lead to desired goals being achieved. • It does this by first identifying the desired long-term goals and then works back from these to identify all the conditions (outcomes) that must be in place (and how these related to one another causally) for the goals to occur. These are all mapped out in an Outcomes Framework. www. britishcouncil. org 3
WHAT DO WE MEAN BY THEORY? • In our context, a theory is a collection of assumptions and hypotheses about how the programme works • This is often depicted in the form of a logic model (a. k. a. intervention logic, logic chain, log frame, causal chain) • Specifies inputs and activities, and the results these are expected to produce • May also make explicit key mechanisms, assumptions, risks, contextual factors www. britishcouncil. org 4
A GOOD THEORY OF CHANGE CAN REVEAL • whether your activities make sense, given your goals; • whethere are things you do that do not help you achieve your goals; • which activities and outcomes you can achieve alone and which you cannot achieve alone; and • how to measure your impact. www. britishcouncil. org 5
THEORY OF CHANGE – ARTS IMPACT FUND www. britishcouncil. org 6
Theory of Change Film www. britishcouncil. org 7
DOING A THEORY OF CHANGE • Identify a realistic and definite goal based on an Evidence of Need / Challenge / Opportunity you are responding too, building on previous research • Work backwards from the needs, goal to work out the intermediate / medium outcomes. • Establish the links between outcomes, and their order, by working out causes and effects • Work out which activities lead to which outcomes • Identify what else is needed for the intervention to work • Actively involve people (donors, partners and beneficiaries) not just in the doing of projects – but also in the learning and theorizing about it • Keep testing keep questioning your thinking www. britishcouncil. org 8
ONE EXAMPLE FROM DFID www. britishcouncil. org 9
DFID CHECKLIST www. britishcouncil. org 10
SOME THOUGHTS www. britishcouncil. org 11
SYRIAN STORIES THEORY OF CHANGE Context: - 6 years of violence, more than 400, 000 deaths, over 5 million Syrians displaced - In Europe and UK, growing xenophobia and mistrust of refugees and migrants due to recent influx of Syrian and non-Syrian refugees, coupled with highprofile terrorist attacks in European cities. - Need to move beyond the “them and us” rhetoric and find ways to build empathy, friendly understanding and trust between the people of Syria and the UK. Overall objective: Contribute to lasting peace in Syria - Address misconceptions around being a Syrian displaced by the conflict, and build empathy and understanding between people - Support Syrians to tell their own stories, build their capacity and grow their connections through documentary film-making www. britishcouncil. org 12
THEORY OF CHANGE – CONT. Assumptions Evidence - The willingness of the target group to - The emergence of Syrian citizen journalists and amateur film makers participate and disseminate the films to capture the situation in MENA - The skills of the target group are - The value of film making to challenge sufficient to build capacity public perception, influence policy, - The access to and fair recruitment of and effect social change the target group is possible - The strength of the UK and local - The interest in disseminating the partners’ skills and networks films in region, UK and abroad - The co-creation and collaboration - Access to screening opportunities between British Council, SDI and - The ability of the partners to work Biddayat together and provide training and mentoring www. britishcouncil. org 13
Inputs Resources / Expertise Participants Who will you support Project activity What participants will do Short term outcomes over lifetime of the project Medium term outcomes as a result of the project Long term outcomes Potential longer term impact Training Networking Upskilling Mentoring Production of films Displaced emerging Syrian film makers in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey Training in documentary film-making Creative skills built (artistic and technical) in documentary film making Lasting relationships built Increased visibility of films & opportunities for collaboration Better livelihoods, improved wellbeing and better ability to influence public opinion Collaborative working Production of films Film dissemination General public in UK, Europe and MENA Touring and screening of films locally and globally New audiences reached Preconceptions and stereotypes are challenged Shift in public perception and fresh perspective on the Syrian displacement Scottish Documentary Institute and Biddayat Co-creation, collaboration and exchange between British Council, UK and local partner have built capacity and gained international experience New connections & partnership opportunities created Stronger bonds between UK and MENA (Education outreach) Collaboration and exchange International partnerships Networks and connections established www. britishcouncil. org Overall Objective Address misconceptio ns around what it means to be a Syrian displaced by the conflict and new More empathy connections and greater between understanding people built, is built between UK, Europe and by humanising Syrians the Syrian experience More and telling sustainable untold collaboration stories and exchange through film between UK and MENA, greater understanding of international landscape 14
EXERCISE: PROBLEM TREE – WHAT? Branches / fruit – What are the consequences of this problem on society, the economy, policy, and culture? Trunk – what is the core problem you aim to address? Roots - What are the root causes / assumptions feeding your problem? www. britishcouncil. org 15
EXERCISE: THE ONION – WHO & WHY? Public stance / general statement What groups, parties or actors want to achieve / the reasons behind Needs that must be addressed / fundamental issues www. britishcouncil. org Position – what they say they want Interests – why it is wanted Needs – what cannot be done without 16
DOING A THEORY OF CHANGE Developing a theory of change can: • Help to identify the core problem, its root causes and consequences • Question our assumptions and look for evidence • Identify the different target groups that can be part of the solution • Plan an intervention/project that will respond to the needs and key issues • Look at the short, medium and long term outcomes and how they lead to change A strong theory of change is: • Based on an understanding of local context, needs, and main target groups • Developed in consultation with those who are part of the solution • Focused on long-term impact and sustainability • Measurable through indicators, milestones, monitoring and evaluation www. britishcouncil. org 17
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