Introduction to the AMDAR Programme Based on slides

Introduction to the AMDAR Programme [Based on slides from D. Lockett, OSD/WMO Secretariat, and others] Luís Nunes WIGOS Project Office

Outline • • • AMDAR: What it is, how it works Geographic coverage and data availability Regional and National AMDAR Programmes Benefits for NMHs and for Airlines Strategy and Plans

AMDAR: What it is, how it works (1) • The operation of WIGOS, including the GOS, is supporting: • • • Numerical Weather Prediction, Public Weather Services, Disaster Risk Reduction, Climate Services Aeronautical Meteorology • The Aircraft-based Observing System (AOS) is a critical component of WIGOS

AMDAR: What it is, how it works (2) AMDAR = Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay

AMDAR: What it is, how it works (4) Data is derived from vertical profiles and en-route reports of meteorological parameters, according to meteorological specification.

AMDAR: What it is, how it works (3) Primary variables included in AMDAR reports : • • • Location [0. 1 deg Latitude/Longitude] and Date/Time [Second], Pressure Altitude [10 ft], Temperature [0. 1 C], Wind Direction [Degree] and Wind speed [Knot], Mixing Ratio (for humidity) [0. 16 g/kg] (when available); and Turbulence (index, or Eddy Dissipation Rate or DEVG) AMDAR is the core component of the Aircraft-based Observing System: • • • ~95% of all AOS data (supplemented by ICAO AIREPs & ADS) Over 650, 000 observations per day 40 participating airlines Over 4000 participating aircraft Data quality is equivalent to radiosonde

Outline • • • AMDAR: What it is, how it works Geographic coverage and data availability Regional and National AMDAR Programmes Benefits for NMHs and for Airlines Strategy and Plans

AMDAR Current Global Coverage

AMDAR en-route and profiles coverage • Coverage very good over USA & Western Europe; • Coverage good over parts of Asia and Australasia; • Coverage is poor elsewhere.

Global Radiosonde Coverage

AMDAR data availability

Status of Global ABO density

Outline • • • AMDAR: What it is, how it works Geographic coverage and data availability Regional and National AMDAR Programmes Benefits for NMHs and for Airlines Strategy and Plans

Programme Number Regional and National AMDAR Programmes Australia 4 Canada 2 China 2 E-AMDAR 14 Hong Kong China 2 Japan 2 Mexico New Zealand 1 Korea 2 South Africa 1 USA 1 9 Airlines Air Vanuatu Jet. Connect (Qantas) Qantas Airways Sky. Traders Air Canada Jazz NAV Canada China Southern Airlines Shandong Airlines Air France Austrian Airways Blue 1 British Airways Easy. Jet Airline Finnair KLM Lufthansa Cargo Lufthansa City. Line Lufthansa Germanwings Lufthansa Passage Novair Scandinavian Airlines Thomas Cook Cathay Pacific Dragon Airlines Air Nippon Airways Japan Airlines Aeromexico Air New Zealand Asiana Airlines Korean Air South African Airways Alaska Airlines American Airlines Continental Delta Air Lines Federal Express Northwest Airlines Southwest Airlines United Parcel Service (UPS)

Outline • • • AMDAR: What it is, how it works Geographic coverage and data availability Regional and National AMDAR Programmes Benefits for NMHs and for Airlines Strategy and Plans

Impact of AMDAR on Weather Prediction Extremely useful for input to forecast applications: • Surface and upper air forecasts of wind and temperature; • Thunderstorm genesis, location and severity; • Wind shear location and intensity; • Detection of zero-degree level (freezing rain); • Low cloud formation, location and duration; • Fog formation, location and duration; • Turbulence location and intensity; • Jetstream location and intensity

Impact of AMDAR on Weather Prediction üEven with more limited coverage, AMDAR are behind only satellite vertical sounders and radiosondes for impact on forecast error reduction (around 10%). § Satellites provide large data volume and global coverage but not good accuracy. § Radiosondes provide good accuracy but poorer horizontal and temporal coverage. üAMDAR provides both better accuracy (than satellites) and higher temporal coverage (than radiosondes). § Impact of AMDAR with improved horizontal coverage and water vapour measurement will be even greater.

AMDAR Data & Verification of Forecast Products Radiosonde data usually available once or twice per day üAMDAR data frequently available – often one or more vertical profile per hour. üAMDAR data offer the opportunity to the forecaster of frequent updating or verification of the NWP and derived products. üThe resulting enhancement to forecast skill is derived from the high frequency of AMDAR data.

Efficiency of AMDAR

Efficiency of AMDAR Results of study by Met Office on observing system efficiencies: • When taking into account costs, AMDAR rate highest in terms of efficiency. • This result is highly significant given that the system is far from optimal in terms of coverage and water vapour sensing deployment. AMDAR development and deployment will derive the biggest improvement in forecast accuracy for the smallest financial input

AMDAR Data in Climate Applications • More than 4000 AMDAR aircraft provide wind and temperatures of climate quality • Increasing number also provide humidity observations • Archives of high quality upper air data are essential • These data are used for local, national and global climate monitoring and forecast applications • Also used for research, e. g. about climate change • Knowledge of changes to thermal structure in the atmosphere is essential for studies of climate change drivers, e. g. carbon dioxide

Why Should a NMHS Develop an AMDAR Programme? • Source of high quality upper air data; • Superior temporal coverage of winds and air temperatures to radiosondes (potentially hourly vs 12 -hourly); • No sensor implementation required (except of humidity) – AMDAR facilitated by software deployment; • Cost of AMDAR profile can be 1/10 th to 1/100 th cost of radiosonde profile. • Unique opportunity to redesign upper air observations networks for efficiency. • AMDAR will provide the biggest impact on forecast improvement for relatively very little expenditure.

Benefits for Airlines (1) • Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U. S. National Airspace System (NAS). • "A key finding, based on an analysis 2005 -2006 convective events, is that two-thirds of the weather related delay is potentially avoidable. “ • “The total cost of domestic air traffic delays to the U. S. economy was $41 billion for 2007. ” • Air-traffic delays raised airlines' operating costs by $19 billion. • Delays cost passengers time worth up to $12 billion. • Indirect costs of delay to other industries added roughly $10 billion to the total burden.

Benefits for Airlines (2) • Recent South African Airways study shows benefits of AMDAR Use latest possible weather information and forecasts for: • Pre-departure « Dynamic Fuel Planning » - determination of fuel load. • Pre-departure Flight Planning: latest possible adjustment of flight plan • In-flight Planning – in-flight adjustment and optimisation. • Findings based on SAA’s 24 aircraft (A 330 and A 340 fleets) Financial results of using Dynamic Fuel Planning: • Savings over a 1 year period: Between 2 and 3 million dollars. • Cost of fuel saved through use of pre/in-flight planning: >$600, 000

Outline • • • AMDAR: What it is, how it works Geographic coverage and data availability Regional and National AMDAR Programmes Benefits for NMHs and for Airlines Strategy and Plans

AMDAR Plans and Strategy (1) • WMO has completed study on AMDAR Coverage & Targeting for Future Airline Recruitment • 7 Data-sparse Regions for targeted development • Potential expansion: 128 Airlines with over 2500 aircraft • Initial high priority target airlines: 26 airlines, ~1200 aircraft

AMDAR Plans and Strategy (2) • • AMDAR Panel incorporated into WMO structure: CBS & CIMO AMDAR Strategy and Implementation Plan for 2025 Strategy Plan was based on Global Actions from the EGOS-IP. Strategic Core Activities for Aircraft Observing System (AOS) – Medium Term (5 yrs), Long Term (5 -10 yrs): Enhancement of AMDAR Coverage Extension of the AMDAR System R&D of New Aircraft Observation Technologies Develop AOS Quality Management System (QMS) Training and Outreach on Benefits of AMDAR Data to Aviation and Meteorology • Management of the ABO Programme • • •

AMDAR Developments: Water vapour • AMDAR would be greatly improved by addition of water vapour measurement: • Have sensors that meet meteorological standards. • Have commenced implementation in the USA & Europe. • Have demonstrated a significant positive impact on NWP and weather services to aviation. • It will require: => Integration into airframes on delivery => Partnerships with Aviation Industry required.

AMDAR Developments: Water vapour Daily coverage, UPS and SWA – 135 aircraft equipped with WVSS-IIv 3. ~2000 profiles/50, 000 observations of atmospheric moisture

AMDAR Developments: Africa • WMO held 2 regional workshops in AMDAR in 2015 in Kenya (June ) and Morocco (December) • WMO actively working through CBS and Regional Association I to push for AMDAR development • Strong interest from Kenya, Ethiopia, Morocco in AMDAR program development • WMO seeking funding to assist develoments in Kenya and Ethiopia • EUMETNET assisting development of Morocco program • ASECNA project…

AMDAR Developments: Resources & Tools http: //www. wmo. int/pages/prog/www/GOS/ABO/AMDAR/resources/index_en. html • WIGOS Technical Reports on benefits, requirements for program development, data impacts, etc. • Manual & guides • Business case documents for partners • Specification for AMDAR Onboard Software

Summary • Based on 2008 figures: Avoidable delays caused by weather cost the USA airline industry $9 billion per annum. • The AMDAR programme contributes to >10% reduction in NWP forecast errors– 2 nd only to satellite obs in impact and much cheaper • Yet, AMDAR data coverage is currently at much less than 50% of what is potentially achievable. • Planned expansion of water vapour network (WVSS, TAMDAR) is expected to increase the impact considerably – particularly over 6 to 24 hr forecast period. • Further expansion of turbulence reporting for Global coverage – leading to improved and enhanced turbulence forecast products. • AMDAR offers an opportunity to efficiently and economically improve upper-air coverage in RA I

Merci Thank you lfnunes@wmo. int www. wmo. int/wigos