Introduction to GIS Modeling Week 6 GIS Modeling

Introduction to GIS Modeling Week 6 — GIS Modeling Procedures GEOG 3110 –University of Denver Presented by Joseph K. Berry W. M. Keck Scholar, Department of Geography, University of Denver Models (pipeline spill and electric transmission line routing) Anatomy of a GIS Model (landslide susceptibility) Mini-Project discussion other GIS Model Examples as time allows (land planning, wildfire risk and retail competition analysis) …a “bonus” opportunity in two weeks– Thursday, February 28, 4: 00 -5: 00 pm Geography Colloquium on— Spatial. STEM: A Mathematical Structure for Communicating and Teaching Fundamental Concepts in Spatial Reasoning, Map Analysis and Modeling

Class Logistics and Schedule Midterm Study Questions (hopefully you are participating in a study group) Midterm Exam …you will download and take the 2. 5 -hour exam online (honor system) sometime between 8: 00 am Friday February 15 and must be completed by 5: 00 pm Tuesday February 19 Exercise #6 (mini-project) — you will form your own teams (1 to 3 members) and tackle one of the six mini-projects; we will discuss the project “opportunities” in great detail later in class— Must email team membership and choice of project by midnight tonight …assigned tonight Thursday, February 14 and final report due Monday, February 25 by 5: 00 pm Submit the Report’s Body and Appendix separately as Word. doc files …Web Layout with “fixed” Figure Tables not to exceed 6. 5 inches in width No Exercise Week 7 — a moment for “dance of celebration” Exercises #8 and #9 — to tailor your work to your interests, you can choose to not complete either or both of these standard exercises; in lieu of an exercise, however, you must submit a short paper (4 -8 pages) on a GIS modeling topic of your own choosing. …grading is completed through Exercise #4 for a possible 200 Exercise points plus 40 Evaluation points– total 240… 240/900= 27% 1000 240/1000= 24% …lots of “rope” left Berry

Online Exam 1 (Midterm) This exam is a 2. 5 hour, closed book affair taken over the Internet (honor system) — you can take during any 2. 5 -hour block after 8: 00 am Friday February 15 and must be completed by 5: 00 pm Tuesday February 19 (submit via email to jberry@innovativegis. com) You will download the exam from the class website, Homework Section (time/date stamped) and email the completed document to me within 2. 5 hours Note– Tutor 25. rgs, Agdata. rgs, Island. rgs, Bighorn. rgs, Gosse. Egg. rgs and Smallville. rgs databases are accessed from Map. Calc Have a hand calculator or use Window’s Calculator… Start Programs Accessories Calculator Note that there will be three parts to the exam— answer FIVE questions for Part 1, ONE from Part 2 and ONE from Part 3 Part 1 50 Points Terminology/concepts: Choose any 5 of the eight 10 -point questions (i. e. , do not answer two) Part 2 50 Points How things work: Choose 1 of the three 50 point questions… Part 3 50 Points Mini-exercises: Choose 1 of the three 50 point questions (Berry)

Grid-Based Map Analysis Spatial analysis investigates the “contextual” relationships in mapped data… ü Reclassify— reassigning map values (position; value; size, shape; contiguity) ü Overlay— map overlay (point-by-point; region-wide; map-wide) ü Distance— proximity and connectivity (movement; optimal paths; visibility) ü Neighbors— “roving windows” (slope/aspect; diversity; anomaly) Weeks 3, 4, 5 Weeks 6, 7 Spatial statistics Surface modeling maps the spatial distribution and pattern of point data… ü Map Generalization— characterizes spatial trends (e. g. , titled plane) ü Spatial Interpolation— deriving spatial distributions (e. g. , IDW, Krig) ü Other— roving window/facets (e. g. , density surface; tessellation) Data mining investigates the “numerical” relationships in mapped data… ü Descriptive— aggregate statistics (e. g. , average/stdev, similarity, clustering) ü Predictive— relationships among maps (e. g. , regression) ü Prescriptive— appropriate actions (e. g. , optimization) Weeks, 8, 9 (Berry)

Spill Migration Modeling (mini-Project 8 “essence”) Elevation Surface Overland Flow Model 1) Pipeline X 2) Spill Point #1 X 5) Flowing Water 3) HCA 4) Report HCA Impact 1) The Pipeline is positioned on the Elevation surface 2) Flow from Spill Points along the pipeline are simulated 3) High Consequence Areas (HCA) are identified 4) A Report is written identifying flow paths that cross HCA areas 5) Overland flow is halted when Flowing Water is encountered (Channel Flow Model) (Berry)

Types of Surface Flows Common sense suggests that “water flows downhill” however the corollary is “…but not always the same way” (See Beyond Mapping III online book, Topic 20 “Surface Flow Modeling” at www. innovativegis. com/basis) (Berry)

Characterizing Overland Flow and Quantity Intervening terrain and conditions form Flow Impedance and Quantity maps that are used to estimate flow time and retention (Over) (Thru) Link to Spill 1_animation (Berry)

Simulating Different Product Types Physical properties combine with terrain/conditions to model the flow of different product types Flow Velocity is a function of— Specific Gravity (p), Viscosity (n) and Depth (h) of product Slope Angle (spatial variable computed for each grid cell) (Berry)

Characterizing Impacted Areas The minimum time for flows from all spills… characterizes the impact for the High Consequence Areas Flows from spill 1, 2 and 3 Drinking water HCA Impacted portion of the Drinking water HCA (Berry)

Modeling Stream Channel Flow (Vector) 3) Impacted HCA Times HCA 4) Overland Flow (Raster) Report of Impacted HCA’s Base Point Out= 9. 86 hr 0 hr HCA In= 11. 46 hr HCA X = 12. 10 +. 36 = 12. 46 hr away from Base Point 2) 13. 1 hr. 78 X . 72 9. 6 hr 11. 2 hr 8. 4 hr 11. 2 hr 13. 1 hr Channel Flow Model HCA . 12 X 7. 3 hr 13. 6 hr Overland Flow Entry Time Overland Flow (2. 5 hours) HCA . 25 . 27 . 14 1) Channel Flow Time 10. 1 hr 10. 8 hr 2. 5 + (12. 46 -11. 46) = 3. 5 hours total 1) Channel Flow times along stream network segments are added 2) Overland Flow time and quantity at entry is noted 3) Impacted High Consequence Areas (HCA) are identified 4) Report is written identifying flow paths that cross HCA areas (Berry)

Renum 0, 1 Binary Choropleth Calculate Renumber 0, 1 Renum Slope GIS Modeling (Binary Logic; Ranking Model) 0, 1 …by simply adding the three binary maps, a Ranking suitability is generated that indicates the number of criteria that are met— 0= none to 3= all three Ordinal, Choropleth (Berry)

Renum 1 -9 Ratio Isopleth Calculate Renumber 1 -9 Renum GIS Modeling (Arithmetic Average; Rating Model) 1 -9 (Berry)

0, 1 Calculate Renumber Spread GIS Modeling (Simple Buffer Extension) (Berry)

GIS Modeling (Effective Buffer Extension) …but what about a refinement that would create a weighted proximity buffer with declining weight factors for increasing distance— 0 1. 9 : . 1 = outside buffer = road cell = close to road = increasing distance = buffer edge cell Renumber 0, 1 Renumber Spread 0 -1 …if you are excited to learn more about GIS Modeling Frameworks, see online book Beyond Mapping II, Topic 5, A Framework for GIS Modeling at www. innovativegis. com/basis/Beyond. Mapping_II/Topic 5/BM_II_T 5. htm (Berry)

Transmission Line Routing Model (Hypothetical) Existing Powerline Goal – identify the best route for an electric transmission line that considers various criteria for minimizing adverse impacts. Proposed Substation Houses Criteria – the transmission line route should… Roads ü Avoid areas of high housing density …prefer low housing density ü Avoid areas that are far from roads Sensitive Areas …prefer close to roads ü Avoid areas within or near sensitive areas Elevation …prefer far from sensitive areas ü Avoid areas of high visual exposure to houses …prefer low visual exposure (See Beyond Mapping III, Topic 19 for more information) Houses (Berry)

Routing and Optimal Paths (Avoid high housing density) PROPOSED SUBSTATION (END) AVOID AREAS OF HIGH HOUSING DENSITY EXISTING POWERLINE (START) Least preferred (high cost) Most preferred (low cost) MOST PREFERRED ROUTE ACCUMULATED PREFERENCE SURFACE HOUSES HOUSING DENSITY DISCRETE PREFERENCE MAP Housing Density levels (0 -83 houses) are translated into values indicating relative preference (1= most preferred to 9=least preferred) for siting a transmission line at every location in the project area. Step 1. Single-criteria Model Accumulated Preference from the existing powerline to all other locations is generated based on the Discrete Preference map. Step 2. The steepest downhill path from the Substation over the Accumulated Preference surface identifies the “most preferred route”— Step 3. Most Preferred Route avoiding areas of high visual exposure (Berry)

Routing Model Flowchart (Model Logic) Model logic is captured in a flowchart where the boxes represent maps and lines identify processing steps leading to a spatial solution Within a single map layer Among a set of map layers Avoid areas of… “Algorithm” “Calibrate” “Weight” High Housing Density …build on this single factor Far from Roads In or Near Sensitive Areas High Visual Exposure Multi-criteria Model (Berry)

Routing Model Flowchart (Model Logic) Model logic is captured in a flowchart where the boxes represent maps and lines identify processing steps leading to a spatial solution Within a single map layer Among a set of map layers Step 1 “Algorithm” “Calibrate” “Weight” Identify overall Discrete Preference (1 Good to 9 Bad rating) Start End Best Route End Step 2 Generate an Accumulated Preference surface from the starting location to everywhere Start Step 3 Route Step 2 Step 1 Accumulation Surface Step 3 Identify the Most Preferred Route from the end location (Berry)

Step 1 Discrete Preference Map …identifies the “relative preference” of locating a route at any location throughout a project area considering all four criteria Calibrate …then Weight [avoid areas of High Housing Density, Far from Roads, In/Near Sensitive Areas and High Visual Exposure] Discrete Preference Map Least Preferred HDensity Most Preferred “Mountain” of impedance (avoid) Most Preferred “Pass” RProximity SAreas VExposure (Berry)

Step 2 Accumulated Preference Map (digital slide show Accum. Surface) …identifies the “total incurred preference” (minimal avoidance) to locate the preferred route from a Starting location to everywhere in the project area Accumulated Preference Map (most preferred) “Pass” Splash Algorithm – like tossing a stick into a pond with waves emanating out and accumulating preference as the wave front moves (Berry)

Step 3 Most Preferred Route (digital video Optimal. Path) …the steepest downhill path from the End over the accumulated preference surface identifies the optimal route that minimizes traversing areas to avoid (most suitable) Optimal Route (most preferred) “Pass” Note: Straightening and Centering techniques can be applied …see Beyond Mapping III, Topic 19 for more information (Berry)

Step 4 Generating Optimal Path Corridors (digital slide show Total. Accumulation. ppt) …the accumulation surfaces from the Start to the End locations are added together to create a total accumulation surface—the “valley” is flooded to identify the set of nearly optimal routes (most preferred) “Pass” Optimal Corridor (Berry)

Model Results (Georgia Experience ) . . . EPRI, GTC, Photo Science Combining alternative corridors identifies the decision space reflecting various perspectives Feature Article in Geo. World, April, 2004 A Consensus Method Finds Preferred Routing See www. geoplace. com/gw/2004/0404 pwr. asp (Berry)

Routing Model Flowchart Siting Model Route Engineering 5 times more important Natural 5 times more important Built 5 times more important Engineering Weight Natural Environment Built Environment Linear Infrastructure Calibrate Public Lands Building Density Streams/ Wetlands Proximity to Buildings Slope Simple Average Equally important …maps identifying areas that must be avoided Avoidance Areas Non. Spannable Water bodies State and National Parks Listed NRHP Districts And Buildings Floodplain Spannable Lakes/Ponds Mines and Quarries (actvie) Land Cover Proposed Dev. s Buildings Wild/Scenic Rivers Day Care Centers Wildlife Habitat Land Use Airports Wildlife Refuge Cemetery Parcels Listed Archeology Sites School Parcels (K-12) …maps of the criteria for siting are identified, then interpreted by different stakeholder groups for relative importance in routing Military Facilities EPA Superfund Sites USFS Wilderness Area City and County Parks Church Parcels (Berry)

Alternate Corridors …Alternate Corridors for each stakeholder perspective are generated Built Natural Engineering Simple (Average) All (Berry)

Additional Data Collection …extensive site-specific information is gathered within the Alternative Corridor boundaries to aid in refining and selecting final options (Berry)

Generate Alternative Routes (Design Team) …Design Team finalizes the Alternate Routes are defined within the Alternative Corridors using expert judgment. ü Objective ü Quantitative ü Predictable ü Consistent ü Defensible Built Natural Exceptions are noted for deviations from optimal paths within the corridor area… …deviations outside the corridor area require variance approval Engineering Simple (Berry)

Routing Model Experience (Conclusions) The Methodology is… Objective, Quantitative, Predictable, Consistent, Defensible GIS-based approaches for routing electric transmission lines utilize relative ratings (calibration) and relative importance (weights) in considering factors affecting potential routes. A quantitative process for establishing objective and consistent weights is critical in developing a robust and defendable transmission line siting methodology. Note: there advance techniques for Calibration and Weighting …link to Calibrate. Weight. ppt See www. innovativegis. com/basis/present/GW 04_routing/GW_Apr 04_routing. Powerline. htm Feature Article in Geo. World, April, 2004 “A Consensus Method Finds Preferred Routing” (Georgia Experience) See www. innovativegis. com/basis, select , online book Beyond Mapping III, Topic 19 “Routing and Optimal Paths” See www. innovativegis. com/basis, select Column Supplements Beyond Mapping, September 03, Delphi (Calibration) See www. innovativegis. com/basis, select Column Supplements Beyond Mapping, September 03, AHP (Weighting) (Berry)

Mini-Project (Exercise #6) Exercise #6 (mini-project) — you will form your own teams (1 to 4 members) and tackle one of eight projects …assigned today and final report due Sunday, February 25 by 5: 00 pm Project 1 – Hugag Habitat Suitability Revisited Project 2 – Visual Exposure to Timber Harvesting Project 3 – Emergency Response Project 4 – Geo-Business Analysis Project 5 – Landslide Susceptibility Project 6 – Transmission Line Routing Project 7 – Wildfire Risk Analysis Project 8 – Pipeline Spill Migration (Berry)

GIS Modeling (Example Project) Example Project – Slippery Mountain Landfill Suitability …criteria for a 0 (not suitable), 1 (minimally suitable) through 9 (extremely suitable) …Your charge is to prepare a prospectus for deriving the Landfill Suitability map that clearly explains how each of criteria are evaluated and then combined into an overall suitability map that respects the legal constraints and reflects the county commissioners’ criteria weightings. In addition, calculate the average landfill suitability rating for each district (Districts map). Finally, generate a map that identifies the average rating within 300 meters (3 -cell reach) for each of the housing locations (Housing map). (Berry)

Example Graded Project – Landfill Suitability …posted online at class website, under “Lecture Notes” section, Week 6, Graded Mini-Project Example (Berry)

Project 1 – Hugag Habitat Suitability Revisited Hugags like to be near water Hugags like cover diversity Hugags are terrified of roads Hugags like to be near forest edges …add four new habitat criteria …implement a weighted average analysis and compare the old and new results (Berry)

Project 2 – Visual Exposure to Timber Harvesting (Berry)

Project 3 – Emergency Response …first phase off-road travel by ATV starting at any road location and encountering the following ATV_friction for determining effective proximity …second phase proceeds on foot into the ATV inaccessible areas by using the “Explicitly” option to Spread …final map uniquely identifies ocean (blue) and hiking inaccessible areas (grey), and rescue response time (green to red) as both a 2 -D map and a 3 -D drape on the elevation surface (Berry)

Project 4 – Geo-Business Analysis Competition Analysis Part 1— calculate two travel-time maps, one from Kent’s Emporium and the other from Colossal Mart Part 2— create a relative travel-time advantage map clearly shows which store has the relative advantage Part 3— generate a binary map identifying just the “combat” zone where neither store has a strong advantage Part 4— generate a map that identifies the customers in the combat zone. Density Analysis Part 1— Create a customer density surface that identifies the total number of customers within half a kilometer Part 2— Generate a binary map identifying the “pockets” of unusually high customer density (mean + 1 Stdev or more customers per 500 m reach). Part 3— Generate a map that shows the relative traveltime advantage within the pockets of unusually high customer density. (Berry)

Project 5 – Landslide Susceptibility …criteria for a 0 (not susceptible), 1 (minimally susceptible) through 9 (extremely susceptible) Overall landslide susceptibility is defined as the weighted average rating of the three criteria A second map that identifies the susceptibility ratings for just the uphill areas around roads to 250 meters (2. 5 cells) Another map identifying the average landslide susceptibility (1 to 9) within the uphill buffered area around roads for each of the management districts identified on the Districts map (Berry)

Transmission Line Routing Project 6 – Least Cost Path Accumulated Cost Map Discrete Cost Map The client, Mega. Watt Power, needs to identify three routes— ü a route that treats visual exposure from houses and roads equally (simple average Cost), ü a route considering visual exposure to houses ten times more important than exposure to roads, and ü a route considering visual exposure to roads ten times more important than exposure to houses. (Berry)

Project 7 – Wildfire Risk Analysis Wildfire Risk is related to— cover type, terrain and human activity factors Wildfire risk needs be summarized in a couple ways… Calculate the average wildfire risk for each of the districts. Create a map that shows the average wildfire risk within a 300 meter buffer around all housing locations. …implement the “common sense” idea that locations closer to the fire station at the Ranch community center (Locations base map) ought to have the calculated risk lowered. (Berry)

Project 8 – Pipeline Spill Migration Pipeline Spill is related to— physics, product properties and terrain conditions ü Identify the implied steepest downhill spill path for each of the three test locations (Spills map) along the proposed new transmission pipeline and map as a 3 D Grid display with all three route individually identified and draped over the Elevation surface. ü Identify the minimum path time for a spill anywhere along the entire Proposed route (Pipelines map) and map as a 3 D Grid display with the spill density map (10 Equal Ranges contours) draped over the Elevation surface. ü Create a map that shows the estimated minimum time for a spill based on the spill time map (created above) to reach all of the impacted areas with the high population HCA (HCA_Hpopulation map). ü To illustrate the model’s sensitivity to different products create another minimum time map for the high population HCA that considers crude oil flow instead of water. (Berry)

GIS Modeling (Mini-Projects) …Good luck!!! There is a “Life-Line” if you get totally stuck. For the price of one grade (drop from 100% possible to 89% possible) I will email you a Map. Calc script with the complete solution—you just need to write-up the solution in a “professional, well-organized, clearly written, succinct manner which is free of grammatical/spelling errors” that demonstrates your understanding of the processing. General clarification, questions and Life-line requests will be processed via email workdays 8: 00 -4: 00 pm and Saturday/Sunday, 9: 00 -11: 00 am. It behooves you to decide on a project and outline a solution as soon as possible. Note: emergency situations call me at 970 -215 -0825 (Berry)