Introduction to Geog 2401 The Human Population Patterns

Introduction to Geog 2401 The Human Population: Patterns, Processes, & Problematics Professor Paul C. Sutton Department of Geography University of Denver psutton@du. edu 1

Timetable Logistics Instructor: Prof Paul C. Sutton Lecture 2: 00 – 4: 00 Monday in BAUD Lab 2: 00 – 4: 00 Wednesday BW 126 Teaching Assistant - Madeline

Alone in the void : getting real about the fragile and tenuous nature of modern civilization 3

Adam Frank’s Op-Ed Piece Magical Thinking in A Reality Based World “. . Short of a scientific miracle of the kind that has never occurred, our future history for millenniums will be played out on Earth and in the “near space” environment of the other seven planets, their moons and the asteroids in between. For all our flights of imagination, we have yet to absorb this reality. Like it or not, we are probably trapped in our solar system for a long, long time. We had better start coming to terms with what that means for the human future. . . In a kind of cosmic version of Manifest Destiny we assume that, unless something terrible happens, our science will be taking us to the stars sometime in the next few hundred years. ” 4 http: //www. nytimes. com/2012/07/25/opinion/alone-in-the-void. html? _r=0

The Myths we want to believe Reader comments posted to this editorial suggested two: A) The Myth of Human Progress or B) The Myth of the Coming Apocalypse 5

The Facts we don’t want to believe 1) Human Population cannot grow forever. 2) Fossil Fuels are Finite. 3) Carrying Capacity is real. 4) Environmental Degradation is real. 5) Climate Change is real. 6) Failure is an option. 6

The Human Population “Hockey Stick” Milestones 1800 1 Billion 1927 2 Billion 1960 3 Billion 1974 4 Billion 1987 5 Billion But the Growth Rate is Slowing. . . Right? 1963 2. 19% 66 Million / year 2010 1. 15% 82 million / year 1999 6 Billion 2011 7 Billion 7

Does ‘Peak Oil’ matter? How will ‘Fracking’ stretch these curves? What comes first Climate ‘Tipping Points’ or The end of fossil fuel? Conventional wisdom leans Towards the former. 8

Food for thought A cocktail napkin calculation: Global Energy Consumption Is: 474 x 1018 joules. Food production consumes 30% of the world’s energy consumption and 1/3 of the food we produce is wasted. Assume 2, 000 calories/day (~8, 300 joules) for 7 billion people. We use ~ 5 joules of energy to produce 1 joule of food. Globally the EROI for food today is roughly 5 to 1 and most of the 5 is fossil fuel. We consume roughly 400 years of stored sunshine in the form of fossil fuels every year. 9

Carrying Capacity & The Ecological Footprint Today humanity uses the equivalent of 1. 5 planets to provide the resources we use and absorb our waste. This means it now takes the Earth one year and six months to regenerate what we use in a year. August 20 th Is World Overshoot Day 10 http: //www. footprintnetwork. org/en/index. php/GFN/

Sustainability varies spatially The UNDP used the Ecological Footprint in tandem with HDI to measure national performance regarding human well-being. 11

Some inconvenient facts and the Environmental ‘State of the World’ The ‘Report Card’ of GEO 5 Shows ‘Little or No Progress’ or worse on more than 50% of the Environmental Challenges they assessed (19 out of 34) With ‘Further Deterioration’ the Assessment for: ‘Wetlands’, ‘Fish Stocks’, and ‘Coral Reefs’’ 12

And to think we almost didn’t notice. . . Rowland Molina suggested that long-lived halogens, including CFCs, would catalyze the degradation of UV absorbing O 3 to O 2. The Hole in the Ozone Layer The Rowland–Molina hypothesis was strongly disputed by representatives of the aerosol and halocarbon industries. The Chair of the Board of Du. Pont was quoted as saying that ozone depletion theory is "a science fiction tale. . . a load of rubbish. . . utter nonsense". The President of Precision Valve Corporation (and inventor of the first practical aerosol spray can valve), wrote to the Chancellor of UC Irvine to complain about Rowland's public statements. A trade journal even questioned whether Rowland was a KGB agent bent on destroying capitalism. Crutzen, Rowland, and Molina were awarded the 1995 Nobel Prize in Chemistry. 13

And to think we almost didn’t notice. . . The Great Pacific Garbage Gyre Massive quantity of mostly submerged plastic debris. Predicted to exist in 1988. Discovered to exist in 1997. 14

And to think we almost didn’t notice. . . Some of the effects of climate change. . . Pine Beetle Damage in New Jersey (flat) vs. in Colorado (mountainous) http: //www. nytimes. com/2013/12/02/science/earth/in-new-jersey-pines-trouble-arrives-on-sixlegs. html? pagewanted=2&_r=0&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20131202 New Jersey (flat topography) 15 Colorado (mountainous topography)

But even when we do notice. . . All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as self-evident. Theory of Anthropogenic Climate Change Seems to be enjoying Stage 1, Stage 2, and Stage 3 Simultaneously. 16

Maybe the ‘Truth’ of climate change does not matter. 17

The Most Dangerous Myth? How many Economists does it take to screw in a lightbulb? 18

Adam Smith, Free Markets, and Neo-Liberal Ideology ‘Greed is Good. ’ People acting in their own self interest naturally and without intention serve societies interests optimally. “By preferring the support of domestic to that of foreign industry, he intends only his own security; and by directing that industry in such a manner as its produce may be of the greatest value, he intends only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention. Nor is it always the worse for the society that it was not part of it. By pursuing his own interest he frequently promotes that of the society more effectually than when he really intends to promote it. I have never known much good done by those who affected to trade for the public good. It is an affectation, indeed, not very common among merchants, and very few words need be employed in dissuading them from it. ” Adam Smith The Wealth of 19 Nations

Free Markets will not. . 1) Build a lighthouse or a weather satellite 2) Create and sustain a judicial system 3) Invest enough in basic research 4) Enforce property rights fairly 5) Provide public education 6) Find a hole in the ozone layer 7) Clean up an oil spill 8) Create a commonwealth “Climate change is the greatest market failure the world has ever seen, and it interacts with other market imperfections. ” 2006 Stern Report on the Economics of Climate 20 Change

Market Failures Matter Monopolies - A monopolist will overcharge and under produce - This is why we have government regulated utilities Public Goods - Non-Rival & Non-Excludable in consumption - Fresh air, knowledge, national defence, street lighting Common Property - Garrett Hardin’s ‘Tragedy of the commons’ Externalities - Both Positive and Negative can be problematic - Tragedy of the Condos, and Pollution 21

Do we need more or less government? “My goal is to cut government in half in twenty-five years, to get it down to the size where we can drown it in the bathtub. ” Grover Norquist Prominent and influential conservative in the United States Imagine a Footy game with no referees, no scorekeepers, no clock, no groundskeeper. In American gridiron there are 7 on the field and that does not include timekeeper, chain gang, scorekeeper, . . 1/3 of the personnel involved in this ‘Free Market Competition’ 22

I am not alone on this soap box. . . APOSTOLIC EXHORTATION EVANGELII GAUDIUM OF THE HOLY FATHER FRANCIS TO THE BISHOPS, CLERGY, CONSECRATED PERSONS AND THE LAY FAITHFUL ON THE PROCLAMATION OF THE GOSPEL IN TODAY’S WORLD November 26, 2013 Pope Francis Note: It is a new and somewhat uncomfortable feeling to find the Pope to be an eloquent ally of mine ☺ 23

“No to an economy of exclusion” “In this context, some people continue to defend trickle-down theories which assume that economic growth, encouraged by a free market, will inevitably succeed in bringing about greater justice and inclusiveness in the world. This opinion, which has never been confirmed by the facts, expresses a crude and naïve trust in the goodness of those wielding economic power and in the sacralized workings of the prevailing economic system. Meanwhile, the excluded are still waiting. To sustain a lifestyle which excludes others, or to sustain enthusiasm for that selfish ideal, a globalization of indifference has developed. Almost without being aware of it, we end up being incapable of feeling compassion at the outcry of the poor, weeping for other people’s pain, and feeling a need to help them, as though all this were someone else’s responsibility and not our own. The culture of prosperity deadens us; we are thrilled if the market offers us something new to purchase. In the meantime all those lives stunted for lack of opportunity seem a mere spectacle; they fail to move us. ” http: //www. vatican. va/holy_father/francesco/apost_exhortations/documents/papa-francesco_esortazioneap_20131124_evangelii-gaudium_en. html 24

“No to the new idolatry of money” “While the earnings of a minority are growing exponentially, so too is the gap separating the majority from the prosperity enjoyed by those happy few. This imbalance is the result of ideologies which defend the absolute autonomy of the marketplace and financial speculation. Consequently, they reject the right of states, charged with vigilance for the common good, to exercise any form of control. A new tyranny is thus born, invisible and often virtual, which unilaterally and relentlessly imposes its own laws and rules. Debt and the accumulation of interest also make it difficult for countries to realize the potential of their own economies and keep citizens from enjoying their real purchasing power. To all this we can add widespread corruption and self-serving tax evasion, which have taken on worldwide dimensions. The thirst for power and possessions knows no limits. In this system, which tends to devour everything which stands in the way of increased profits, whatever is fragile, like the environment, is defenseless before the interests of a deified market, which become the only rule. ” http: //www. vatican. va/holy_father/francesco/apost_exhortations/documents/papa 25 francesco_esortazione-ap_20131124_evangelii-gaudium_en. html

Ecological Economics Worldview Interaction between built, social, human, and natural capital required to produce human wellbeing. Built and human capital (the economy) are embedded in society which is embedded in the rest of nature. Ecosystem services are the relative contribution of natural capital to human well-being, they do not flow directly. It is therefore essential to adopt a broad, transdisciplinary perspective in order to address ecosystem services. 26

Ecosystem Services are a multi-faceted Market Failure Economic Valuation of Ecosystem Services have suggested that the Total value of the world’s Ecosystem Services and Natural Capital are Signifcantly larger the world’s Market Economy. Gross World Product ~ $50 Trillion Economic Value of World’s Eco-Services ~$125 Trillion These findings are also ridiculed, violently opposed, and accepted as having always been true. Also described as an underestimate of infinity. Costanza, R; d’Arge, R; de Groot, R; Farber, S; Grasso, M; Hannon, B; Naeem, S; Limburg, K; Paruelo, J; O’Neill, R; Raskin, R; Sutton, P; van den Belt, M; (1997) The Value of the World’s Ecosystem Services and 27 Natural Capital Nature Vol 387 May 15

Changes in the Global Value of Ecosystem Services New Total Global Value for Ecosystem Services: $145 Trillion / year (Currently Global GDP is $ 85 Trillion) Losses since 1997 $20. 2 Trillion / year Article in Global Environmental Change: Changes in the global value of ecosystem services Robert Costanza, Ph. D. ; Rudolph de Groot, Ph. D. ; Paul C Sutton, Ph. D. ; Sander van der Ploeg, Ph. D. ; Sharolyn Anderson, Ph. D. ; Ida Kubiszewski, Ph. D. ; Stephen Farber, Ph. D. ; R. Kerry Turner, Ph. D.

An Ecosystem Service Elevator Free Markets willnot: Story To help us all communicate better. . . ? Pollination Bee pollination is an Ecosystem service that is Vital to agriculture and Other wildlife. There are many ways to estimate the Economic value to humans that comes from this ecosystem service. Valuing Insect Pollination Services with Cost of Replacement http: //www. plosone. org/article/info%3 Adoi%2 F 10. 1371%2 Fjournal. pone. 0003128

The Dollar Cost to replace bee pollination services would be Significant and Essential Doing crop pollination by hand would cost over $200 Billion per year food crops alone.

What’s Wrong With The Neo-Classical Economic Paradigm? An Economist could propose the following ‘Final Solution’ or ‘Modest Proposal’: KILL ALL THE BEES! WHY?

BEE EXTINCTION is a ‘Win’ – ‘Win’ triple bottom line economic policy . Win #1: It Creates Jobs! Win #2: It increases GDP! Win #3: It generates Tax Revenue! “Really, it’s nothing personal against the bees it just makes economic sense to BTW: War and Hurricanes are exterminate them. ” Good for the economy too.

A Tale of Two Paradigms Neo-Classical Economics Ecological Economics The purpose of an economic system is to maximize Gross Domestic Product (GDP or GDP/Capita) regardless of how wealth is distributed. The purpose of an economic system is to maximize human well-being which results from an interaction of social, built, natural, and human capital Not everything than can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted. Albert Einstein 33

“Ah, but a. Free man’s reach should exceed his grasp, Markets willnot: Or what’s a heaven for? ” Robert Browning 34

The Pale Blue Dot Thank You Questions or Comments ? 35