Introduction to CostBenefit Analysis Using Market Prices Presentation

Introduction to Cost-Benefit Analysis: Using Market Prices Presentation by Dr. Benoit Laplante Environmental Economist Consultant Asian Development Bank Bangkok September 30 to October 4, 2013

Outline of Presentation 1. Cost-benefit analysis: 8 steps 2. Quantifying the impacts of a project 3. Concept of economic value 4. Methodologies to evaluate impacts 5. Using market prices 2

Outline of Presentation 1. Cost-benefit analysis: 8 steps 2. Quantifying the impacts of a project 3. Concept of economic value 4. Methodologies to evaluate impacts 5. Using market prices 3

Cost-benefit analysis: 8 steps Step 1: Define the scope of analysis. Step 2: Identify all potential physical impacts of the project. Step 3: Quantify the predicted impacts. Step 4: Monetize impacts. Step 5: Discount to find present value of costs and benefits. Step 6: Calculate net present value. Step 7: Perform expected value and/or sensitivity analysis. Step 8: Make recommendations. 4

Cost-benefit analysis: 8 steps Step 1: Define the scope of analysis. Step 2: Identify all potential physical impacts of the project. Step 3: Quantify the predicted impacts. Step 4: Monetize impacts. Step 5: Discount to find present value of costs and benefits. Step 6: Calculate net present value. Step 7: Perform expected value and/or sensitivity analysis. Step 8: Make recommendations. 5

Quantifying the impacts of a project • This is perhaps the most important and most common failure in CBA. 6

Quantifying the impacts of a project Suppose the following (hypothetical) situation: In a specific region of the country, agricultural yield has been going down for the last few years (which may or may not be related to climate change). Projected increases in air temperature is expected to have an adverse effect on agricultural yield. Suppose a project (for example a supplementary irrigation project) which aims to offset some or all of this adverse affect. How would one assess the impact of the project on agricultural yield given the projected increases in air temperature? In other words: How would one assess the benefits of this project?

Quantifying the impacts of a project Yield (tons per month) Which question do we need to ask to quantify the possible impacts of the project? Question 1: What is likely to happen WITHOUT the project? Existing yield Past Today Looking in the future Time

Quantifying the impacts of a project Yield (tons per month) Existing yield Suppose this is estimated yield given projected increases in temperature WITHOUT project. Past Today Looking in the future Time

Quantifying the impacts of a project Yield (tons per month) Question 2: What would be ag yield given projected increases in temperature WITH the project? Existing yield Suppose this is estimated yield given projected increases in temperature WITHOUT project. Past Today Looking in the future Time

Quantifying the impacts of a project Yield (tons per month) Question 2: What would be ag yield given projected increases in temperature WITH the project? Suppose this is estimated yield given projected increases in temperature WITH project. Existing yield Impact of project Suppose this is estimated yield given projected increases in temperature WITHOUT project. Past Today Looking in the future Time

Quantifying the impacts of a project Yield (tons per month) Under PPCR, the baseline is the value of the existing yield at the time the PPCR is negotiated. Existing yield Suppose one goes back a few years later and find this. What will PPCR conclude? Past Today Looking in the future Time

Quantifying the impacts of a project Yield (tons per month) Under PPCR, the baseline is the value of the existing yield at the time the PPCR is negotiated. Existing yield But in fact, if this was without project, then the project is a success. Past Today Looking in the future Suppose one goes back a few years later and find this. PPCR will conclude project is a failure. Time

Quantifying the impacts of a project • This is perhaps the most important and most common failure in CBA. • We must always ask: What would happen if the project did not take place. We must compare how the situation will be “with the project” and how it is expected to be “without the project”.

Outline of Presentation 1. Cost-benefit analysis: 8 steps 2. Quantifying the impacts of a project 3. Concept of economic value 4. Methodologies to evaluate impacts 5. Using market prices 15

The concept of economic value Consider an individual in an initial state of well-being W 0 that he/she achieves with a money income Y 0 and a level of access to irrigation IR 0: W 0 (Y 0, IR 0) Now consider a project which would increase access to irrigation water to IR 1. This increased access to IR would produce a new level of well-being to W 1: W 1 (Y 0, IR 1) Since this individual’s well-being would increase with the project, we know that: W 1 (Y 0, IR 1) > W 0 (Y 0, IR 0) 16

The concept of economic value In order to assess the appropriateness of this project and compare the costs of the project with the benefits, we would like to know how much the well-being of this individual is increased with increased access to irrigation, i. e. how large is W 1 minus W 0? ΔW = W 1 (Y 0, IR 1) - W 0 (Y 0, IR 0) How could we measure this change in well-being? How large is W 1 minus W 0? 17

The concept of economic value Determine the maximum amount of income the individual would be willing to pay (WTP) for the change in IR. In effect, the individual is asked to consider two combinations of income and access to irrigation water that both yield the same level of well-being: Ø One combination in which his/her income is reduced and access to IR is increased; and Ø Another combination in which income is not reduced and access to IR remains the same as it is (no change). W 0 (Y 0, IR 0) = W 0 (Y 0 – WTP, IR 1) 18

The concept of economic value W 0 (Y 0, IR 0) = W 0 (Y 0 – WTP, IR 1) WTP is defined as the amount of money that makes these two combinations of income and traffic congestion yield the same level of well-being. This is the maximum the individual would be willing to pay for the positive change in welfare resulting from a greater access to irrigation water. This maximum WTP is defined as the economic value of the change in well-being resulting from the increased access to irrigation water from IR 0 to IR 1. All economic valuation methodologies aim to measure this maximum WTP. Some methodologies do this well, some not so well. 19

The concept of economic value Total economic value Use value Indirect use value + Consumptive direct use value Direct use value + Bequest value + Existence value Non-consumptive direct use value Among use value, we also add: Relatively easy to measure Non-use value + Option value Relatively difficult to measure 20

Outline of Presentation 1. Cost-benefit analysis: 8 steps 2. Quantifying the impacts of a project 3. Concept of economic value 4. Methodologies to evaluate impacts 5. Using market prices 21

Methodologies to evaluate impacts 22

Methodologies to evaluate impacts Use value Direct use value Consumptive direct use value Non-consumptive direct use value Indirect use value Group 1: Change of productivity methodology Group 2 (Revealed preferences) and Group 3 (Stated preferences) Non-use value Bequest value Existence value Group 3 (Stated preferences)

Outline of Presentation 1. Cost-benefit analysis: 8 steps 2. Quantifying the impacts of a project 3. Methodologies to evaluate impacts 4. Using market prices 25

Using market prices Group 1: ‘Change of productivity’ methodology This methodology is generally applied in the specific case where the environmental impact represents a change in a component of the environment (or ecosystem) which has a direct consumptive value. This impact will be measured by a change in the production of a good for which there is already a market, and therefore market prices. Market prices or shadow prices will be used to assess the economic impact of this change in productivity.

Using market prices Group 1: ‘Change of productivity’ methodology Examples where appropriate to use this methodology: • Water pollution may impact fisheries yield; • Reservoir sedimentation may impact power production; • Floods may impact agriculture production; • Increases in temperature may reduce agricultural yield.

Using market prices Group 1: ‘Change of productivity’ methodology Proceeds in two steps: Step 1: Establish the link or the relationship that exists between a change in environmental quality and the resulting impact on production. This is generally called a dose-response function. Examples of dose-response functions: • Relationship between fisheries yield and water pollution; • Relationship between reservoir sedimentation and power production; • Relationship between temperature and agricultural production.

Using market prices Group 1: ‘Change of productivity’ methodology Proceeds in two steps: Step 2: Once the change in production is established, market prices (or shadow prices which are market prices corrected for the presence of subsidies, taxes or for any other market imperfections) are then used to estimate the economic value of the estimated change in production.

Using market prices Group 1: ‘Change of productivity’ methodology Proceeds in two steps: Step 1: Establish the link or the relationship that exists between a change in environmental quality and the resulting impact on production. Step 2: Once the change in production is established, market prices (or shadow prices which are market prices corrected for the presence of subsidies, taxes or for any other market imperfections) are then used to estimate the economic value of the estimated change in production. Step 1 is the difficult step.

Cost-benefit analysis: 8 steps Step 1: Define the scope of analysis. Step 2: Identify all potential physical impacts of the project. Step 3: Quantify the predicted impacts. Step 4: Monetize impacts. Step 5: Discount to find present value of costs and benefits. Step 6: Calculate net present value. Step 7: Perform expected value and/or sensitivity analysis. Step 8: Make recommendations. 31

Steps and expertise IDENTIFICATION OF IMPACTS Task of technical and scientific experts QUANTIFICATION OF IMPACTS Task of technical, scientific and economic experts ECONOMIC VALUATION OF IMPACTS Task of economists Need multi-disciplinary team

Introduction to Cost-Benefit Analysis: Using Market Prices Presentation by Dr. Benoit Laplante Environmental Economist Consultant Asian Development Bank Bangkok September 30 to October 4, 2013