Internet evolution scenarios NEC 2009 conference Varna 11909

Internet evolution scenarios NEC’ 2009 conference Varna (11/9/09) http: //www. ictconsulting. ch/presentations/NEC 2009. ppt Olivier. Martin@ictconsulting. ch 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 1

Outline n n Internet Evolution Scenarios Internet Traffic Statistics n n State of the Internet n n n Impact of P 2 P & Internet Video to PC Research & Education Commercial IPV 6 Deployment Status & Issues Internet “clean-slate” programs Conclusions Internet Governance 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 2

Internet evolution scenarios? n n n Many scenarios are possible, anything can actually happen! The only certainty is that the Internet will continue to be the worldwide communications highway and broadband access (i. e. Mb/s Gb/s) will be nearly ubiquitous no changes (i. e. the Internet remains largely IPv 4 based with increased use of NATs) Large scale migration to IPv 6 (for sure IPv 6 will continue to grow but how fast and when can one reasonably expect the Internet to become IPv 6 based with only residual IPv 4 islands? ) clean-slate (i. e. radical new design). n n 11/9/2009 Even the clean-slate proponents all agree, I think, that a clean-slate Internet will need to coexist for many years, if not for ever, with the existing Internet, be it IPv 4, IPv 6 or both. increased use of MPLS Olivier Martin 3

MPLS (Multi-Protocol Label Switching) Although overly complex according to many, because of its connection oriented features and the associated signaling, MPLS has many interesting properties for Internet Service Providers: traffic engineering, VPNs, departure from the destination based routing, implementation of the “routing at the edges, switching in the core” principle which has the very desirable property to remove complexity from the network core and push it at the edges. There are several MPLS variants: n IETF’s MPLS/VPLS including “Pseudo Wires” (PWE 3) as a way to provide Qo. S & layer 2 services (VPN). n ITU’s T-MPLS: a simplified version of IETF’s MPLS without dynamic signaling. n IEEE’s PBB-TE (802, 1 Qay), Provider Based Transport, which was initiated by Nortel and is similar to T-MPLS but is Ethernet based. 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 4

Internet Traffic Statistics n Many sources: n n n n Internet World Statistics (IWS) Cisco Visual Networking Index Akamai State of the Internet Ipoque CAIDA RIPE Pinger (Do. E/SLAC) and many others……… 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 5

World Internet Usage & Population Statistics (Source Internet World Stats June 2009) n n The new total for the world population is estimated at 6, 767, 805, 208 persons for mid-year 2009. This represents an increase of 91, 684, 920 persons, a 1. 4% population increase since one-year ago. On the other hand, our mid-year 2009 estimate for world Internet users is 1, 668, 870, 408. n n Internet penetration, therefore, is 24. 7%. This means that approximately one out of every four persons in the world uses the Internet! The number of Internet users increased 205, 238, 047 since mid-year 2008, when the Internet penetration was only 21. 9%. Each geographic region had a different growth pattern. 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 6

World Internet Usage & Population Statistics (Source Internet World Stats June 2009) WORLD INTERNET USAGE AND POPULATION STATISTICS World Region Population (2009 Est. ) Internet Users (Dec. 31 2000) Internet Users Latest Data Penetration (% Population) Growth 2000 -2009 Users % of Table Africa 991, 002, 342 4, 514, 400 65, 903, 900 6. 7 % 1, 359. 9 % 3. 9 % Asia 3, 808, 070, 503 114, 304, 000 704, 213, 930 18. 5 % 516. 1 % 42. 2 % Europe 803, 850, 858 105, 096, 093 402, 380, 474 50. 1 % 282. 9 % 24. 2 % Middle East 202, 687, 005 3, 284, 800 47, 964, 146 23. 7 % 1, 360. 2 % 2. 9 % North America 340, 831 108, 096, 800 251, 735, 500 73. 9 % 132. 9 % 15. 1 % Latin America / Carribean 586, 662, 468 18, 068, 919 175, 834, 439 30. 0 % 873. 1 % 10. 5 % Oceania / Australia 34, 700, 201 7, 620, 480 20, 838, 019 60. 1 % 173. 4 % 1. 2 % WORLD TOTAL 6, 767, 805, 208 360, 985, 492 1, 668, 870, 408 24. 7 % 362. 3 % 100. 0 % 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 7

Internet World Statistics (mid-2009) 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 8

Internet Traffic Projections by Applications (1) (Source Cisco Visual Networking Index – Forecast and Methodology 2007 -2012, June 2008) Customer Internet Traffic 2006 -2012 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 CAGR 2007 -2012 By Sub-Segment (PB per month) Web, email, data 509 731 1, 039 1, 396 1, 865 2, 452 3, 253 35% 1, 358 1, 764 2, 361 3, 070 3, 857 4, 280 5, 980 28% Gaming 91 131 187 252 324 399 490 30% Video communications 16 25 37 49 70 103 154 44% Vo. IP 23 39 56 72 87 101 114 24% Internet video to PC 269 654 1, 359 2, 064 3, 079 4, 374 6, 069 56% Internet video to TV 14 118 736 1, 405 2, 288 3, 458 97% 2, 280 3, 462 5, 372 7, 638 10, 686 14, 536 19, 519 41% P 2 P Total (PB per month) Consumer Internet traffic 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 9

Internet Traffic Projections by Region (2) (Source Cisco Visual Networking Index – Forecast and Methodology 2007 -2012, June 2008) Customer Internet Traffic 2006 -2012 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 CAGR 2007 -2012 By Geography (PB per month) North America 605 894 1, 249 1, 687 2, 174 2, 729 3, 296 30% Western Europe 530 821 1, 359 2, 135 3, 229 4, 688 6, 584 52% Asia Pacific 890 1, 374 2, 207 3, 044 4, 182 5, 618 7, 653 41% Japan 114 158 226 308 406 526 644 32% Latin America 60 98 163 246 363 516 721 49% Central Eastern Europe 65 91 127 178 247 341 463 38% Middle East and Africa 15 26 41 60 86 118 159 43% 2, 280 3, 462 5, 372 7, 638 10, 686 14, 536 19, 519 41% Total (PB per month) Consumer Internet traffic 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 10

Peer-to-Peer Networking (P 2 P) n n The P 2 P technology suffers from its early pioneers, e. g. Napster, and is sometimes synonymous to: illegal distribution of copyrighted material! Bit. Torrent, e. Donkey, Gnutella distribution techniques are both very impressive but also very effective, but are seen by some as a violation of basic Internet principles! n n n Peer-2 -Peer Traffic n n n Significant percentage of total Internet traffic (up to 40 -50%) Raises network neutrality issues (traffic throttling) P 2 P projects: n n n Files divided into chunks Multiple source downloads P 2 P-Next, Smoothit (EU) P 4 P forum (USA) P 2 P standardization (very recent, i. e. 2008): n 11/9/2009 P 2 P WG (IRTF), ALTO WG (IETF)) Olivier Martin 11

State of the Internet n There are really two Internets that have very little in common, namely: n n Academic & Research Internet (GEANT & NRENs in Europe, Internet 2 & NLR in the USA, etc. ) Commercial, also dubbed, commodity Internet The academic & research Internet is bandwidth-rich and is looking for solutions to not so well established requirements and/or problems! The commercial Internet is plagued by a number of very serious “ills” that are threatening, if not its existence, at least its long-term stability as listed below: n n n IPv 4 address space exhaustion predicted to occur within the next 2 years! Routing Security Inter-domain Quality of Service (Qo. S) Domain Name System (DNS) 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 12

GEANT n n n Over time, an extremely impressive network construction with many good things: e. g. links to Africa, Asia, America, Black Sea (Caucasian countries), etc. Monopoly style organization that is too much politics driven and not enough user driven Price/performance ratio questionable The (too) strong emphasis on bandwidth on demand (Bo. D) is puzzling Evolved from a single global pan-European backbone into multiple Mission Oriented Networks: n e. g. DEISA, JIVE, LHCOPN n i. e. back where we were some 30 years ago with HEPnet, Decnet, NSI, MFEnet and many other “private” networking infrastructure which is actually a very good thing The original building assumption, back to the early 1990, “economy of scale” has become invalid: n The 10 Gb/s bandwidth limit forced this evolution as the old rule “ 4 times the capacity for 1/3 to 1/2 of the price” no longer holds as pricing became linear, hence the wide adoption of “dark fibers”. n Wide-scale commercial 40 Gb/s deployment really started in 2008 (e. g. ATT, NTT) n 100 Gb/s technology is still some years away. 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 13

Commercial Internet n Commercial Internet is booming with traffic growth rates around 40% or more per year due to: n n n Peer to Peer applications & overlay networks Video-on-demand, Video-sharing IPTV, Triple. Play, Skype Social networking & Web 2. 0 Sophisticated Search Engines and Content Distribution Techniques Broadband access needs are increasing in order to support new applications n n Wireless access is gaining importance (3 G, 4 G, Wi. MAX, LTE) But, fixed access will not disappear (ADSL, FTTH, GPON, Cable TV, leased lines, etc. ) 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 14

IPv 4 Address Reports (1/4/08 – 21/3/09) n n Compared to almost one year ago the prediction for the date of exhaustion of IPv 4 addresses hardly changed (2011/2012) Projected IANA Unallocated Address Pool Exhaustion: n n Projected RIR Unallocated Address Pool Exhaustion: n n http: //www. potaroo. net/tools/ipv 4/index. html An IPv 4 trading model has been developed by the IANA n n 27 -Jun-2012 (4/08) 4 -Sep-2012 (4/09) 15 -Jun-2012 (9/09) A rough estimate of the additional time provided by using the unadvertised address pool is 5 -Sep-2012. n n 03 -Apr-2011 (4/08) 8 -May-2011 (4/09) 16 -Aug-2011 (9/09) Did not appear to have any effects on the deployment of IPv 6! However, there are some signs that IPv 6 uptake may happen in 2010? 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 15

Will IPv 6 be deployed soon? q Network World 20/3/09 q q q “Business incentives are completely lacking today for upgrading to IPv 6, the next generation Internet protocol, according to a survey of network operators conducted by the Internet Society (ISOC). ” http: //www. isoc. org/pubs/2009 -IPv 6 -Org. Member-Report. pdf Special Network World Issue 21/1/09 (sponsored by NTT) q IPv 6: Not If, When? 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 16

Some statements on IPv 6 n Are NATs for IPv 6 a necessary evil? n Russ Housley (IETF Chair) “They are necessary for a smooth migration from IPv 4 to IPv 6 so that the important properties of the Internet are preserved” n We need to be pragmatic! IVI draft X. Li n n n “The experience for the IPv 6 deployment in the past 10 years strongly indicate that for a successful transition, the IPv 6 hosts nee to communicate with the global IPv 4 networks [JJI 07]” 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 17

Large scale IPv 6 deployment n For sure, IPv 6 migration will NOT happen as envisaged some 10 years ago, i. e. dual stack n n May even never happen, even so this is rather unlikely! Changing paradigms n n end 2 end no longer a dogma NATs no longer evils IPv 4 only<-->IPv 6 only, no longer a taboo Translators needed (Many competing IETF drafts): n n n n 11/9/2009 SIIIT (Stateless Ip/Icmp Translation, the basis) IVI (CERNET) NAT 64 & DNS 64 Dual-stack lite (Comcast) 6 rd (6 to 4 revisited) –free (France) NAT 6 IPv 6 NAT (Cisco) SNAT-PT (Simplified NAT-PT Olivier Martin 18

The Internet and NGN (Tomonori Aoyama - NICT) 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 19

A New Generation Network – Beyond NGN – (Tomonori Aoyama - NICT) 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 20

Internet “clean-slate” design programs(1) n GENI (NSF) n n n Experimental, reconfigurable infrastructure allowing multiple slices to be allocated to different user groups to validate their new architectural proposals With a comprehensive research plan Ne. TS (NSF) n FIND (Future Internet Design) n n n Postcatds at the Edges ANR (Anycast Name Routing) NOSS (Networks of Sensors Systems) WN (Wireless Networks) NBD (Networking Broadly Defined) Not clear at all which progresses have really been achieved during the last year? 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 21

Internet “clean-slate” design programs(2) n DONA (Data Oriented Network Architecture) n n Stanford n n n Very little information flowing out! MIT’s Communication Future Program (CFP) n n Based on publish/subscribe paradigm, self-certifying names, similar effort in EU PSIRP project Sort of private club! AKARI (Japan) European Union (FP 7) n n Many projects Very open 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 22

EU’s “Future Networks” Projects 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 23

EU’s Future Internet Research and Experimentation (FIRE) Projects 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 24

What the Internet may look like in the future (1) n n n A “Green”, i. e. energy aware, Internet will appear. Broadband access (i. e. Mb/s Gb/s) will be nearly ubiquitous Wireless access will become prevalent (3 G, 4 G, Wi. MAX, LTE) But, fixed access will not disappear (ADSL, FTTH, GPON, Cable TV, leased lines, etc. ) Paradigm changes are unavoidable, e. g. : n n Host based Content based Publish/Subscribe & Content-centric architecture n DONA, ANR, PSIRP, 4 WARD, …. Peer-2 -Peer networks (P 2 P) Content Distribution Networks 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 25

What the Internet may look like in the future (2) n n Will streaming technology overcome P 2 P technology or the other way round? Will (inter-domain) Quality of Service (Qo. S) ever become real even if it is badly needed? What will be the impact of the emerging virtualization technologies? New business models are needed anyway, a mostly “free” Internet cannot go on forever, but are Internet customers ready to pay more? 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 26

Conclusions n n The IPv 4 Internet is growing fast but cannot continue “as is” beyond 2011! IPv 6 looks “almost” unavoidable but is by no means “guaranteed” to happen! n n n Last major architecture change was the introduction of MPLS clean-slate solutions are unlikely to be viable before 7 -15 years n n n IPv 6 by itself only solves ONE problem, i. e. the lack of addresses BUT nothing else the related work may be dangerous as it could create an even worse political delusion than the “IPv 6 cures everything” delusion! A gradual step-wise evolution appears to be much safer The instability of the Internet routing system is preoccupying as well as the increasing lack of “network neutrality”, copyright infringements, security threats, spams, etc. 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 27

Acknowledgements n n Tomonori Aoyama (Keio University, NICT) Bill St Arnaud (Canarie) Brian Carpenter (University of Auckland), Paulo Desousa (European Commission) 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 28

Additional slides n n Internet Governance EU Information Society and Media GEANT 2 Topology The fallacy of bandwidth on demand 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 29

Internet Governance n n Internet Governance Areas Main Bodies involved n ICANN n n n IGF ISOC n n IANA ASO IDN IETF IAB ITU OECD 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 30

Internet Governance 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 31

Internet Governance (1) n ICANN n IANA (technical) n n ASO n n Working with the RIRs to facilitate IPv 6 adoption IDN (Internationalized Domain Names) n n IPv 6 available in 6 out of the 13 root servers Tests well underway for 11 non-roman Top Level Domains (TLD) IGF n Apart from the agreement on a multi-stakeholder structure, nothing very concrete has yet happened! n 11/9/2009 However, the annual IGF meetings attracted more than 1000 participants! Olivier Martin 32

Internet Governance (2) n ISOC n IETF n n IAB n n Although the “rough” consensus working model has been resisting quite well, it is no longer working as smoothly as before because of the many conflicting commercial interests at stake. The guardian of the Internet orthodoxy Running workshops: n n State of the network layer (1999) Routing and Addressing (2006) Unwanted Traffic (2006) ITU’s NGN + new working group: n Focus Group on Future Networks (FG-FN) 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 33

Internet Governance (3) n OECD’s STI (Science, Industry & Technology) has been running a number of excellent workshops n n The future of the Internet (2006) Social & Economic Factors shaping the Future of the Internet (joint with NSF in January 2007) n n Incremental versus clean-slate NATs versus IPv 6 Fiber investment & Policy Challenges (April 2008) Ministerial meeting on the Future of the Internet Economy (Seoul, June 2008) 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 34

EU “Information Society and Media” q Directorate D: “Converged Networks and Services” n D 1: “Future Networks” n n D 2: “Networked Media Systems” n q 4 WARD, PSIRP, Smooth. IT, etc. P 2 P-Next Directorate F: “Emerging Technologies and Infrastructures” n F 1 & F 2: Future Emerging Technologies (FET) n F 3: GEANT & e. Infrastructure n n F 4: New Infrastructure Paradigms and Experimental Facilities n 11/9/2009 Grids (EGEE, etc. ) FIRE (Future Internet Research and Experimentation) Olivier Martin 35

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GEANT 2 Topology 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 37

The fallacy of bandwidth on demand n n n “The fact is, no evidence exists yet that big science traffic volumes, or for that matter Internet traffic volumes, are growing anywhere near what was forecast, even just a few short years ago. ” As evidence of this lack of demand for bandwidth, one only need to look at University of Minnesota Digital Technology Center director Andrew Odlyzko’s MINTS Website, which tracks traffic volume on various commercial Internet and NRENs around the world. Traffic volume growth rates on R&E networks have declined significantly over the past decade. For example, Internet 2’s annual growth is less than 7 percent per year, whereas commercial networks growth rates vary from 25 -50 percent per year. 11/9/2009 Olivier Martin 38