International trade by enduse and the BEC classification

International trade by end-use and the BEC classification Colin Webb and Norihiko Yamano OECD STI/EAS 1

Motivation n n n Estimating international flows of intermediate goods Estimating I-O import matrices for countries that do not produce them Linking I-O tables with bilateral trade Domestic content of exports / ‘trade in value added’ Origin of imported consumption and investment goods Vertical Specialisation indicators Analysis of GVCs 2

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Straightforward methodology? n n n Classification of Broad Economic Categories (BEC) HS BEC and HS ISIC conversions exist Therefore ISIC x BEC Also BEC SNA end-use categories (Consumption, Intermediates, Capital) Therefore ISIC x end-use i. e. reported HS trade data trade by ISIC and end-use 4

Not so simple … n n BEC items: Mainly for industry / Mainly for household consumption … … Capital / Consumption split (e. g. ICT goods) BEC items: Motor Spirit, Motor cars, NEC (mixed enduses) Adjustments to reported HS trade in goods data: – Re-exports – Account for ‘confidential data’ and missing data – Specific commodities e. g. Diamonds (HS 7102 ISICs 14, 36) – Knowledge of specific bilateral flows … – Customs data Bo. P n Services not covered Calibrate imports of intermediates with SUT/IOT info … 5

Users of BEC conversions n “Trade in intermediate Goods and Services” Miroudot, Lanz and Ragoussis, OECD, 2009 n Current OECD(STI) projects: based on OECD harmonised Input-Output tables – Estimates of import matrices – Inter-country I-O for environmental impacts of globalisation (CO 2 embodied in trade); technology diffusion (embodied R&D) – development of VS indicators / analyses of GVCs n n n WIOD project, US ITC Research … UNSD, Eurostat : publication of trade data by BEC NSIs: BEC derivatives (AUS, NZ) ; local classifications (US, Canada) 6

Future n n Review of BEC by UNSD Revision of BEC? include services? develop an e. BOPGS linked to a new BEC? Use National sources (e. g. USA / CAN end-use data) ? Exploit alternative sources for further adjustments (e. g. HH expenditure on ICT? ) Develop a “sustainable” international bilateral ISIC x end-use trade database at OECD ? i. e. updated as bilateral trade in data updated but …. . ISIC Rev. 4 / SNA 2008 / HS 2012 …. . 7