International conference Millennium Assessment Bridging scales and epistemologies
International conference Millennium Assessment: Bridging scales and epistemologies Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity; Opportunities and Limitations of the GLOBIO 3 model and the Natural Capital Index (NCI) framework ER 1
New Challenges • • • r Millennium development Goals Johannesburg 2010 target CBD biodiversity indicators Applications in the MA National (BINU) and regional EU / OECD applications Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 2
Outline presentation Previous work GEO 3 and PEEP land use change agricultural intensity climate change GLOBIO 3 applied to Latin America Biodiversity Assessment Ecuador Upscaling national to global Downscaling global to national 2010 target Global interactive research r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 3
Key questions to be addressed by GLOBIO 3 • What is changing: – – – biodiversity (ecosystems, species and their abundance) natural areas expected trends (scenario’s) geographically explicit most vulnerable areas • Why is it changing – different pressures – relative importance of pressures • What can we do about it – effects of response options (e. g. to reach policy targets) r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 4
Comparison pressure indices: Global (GEO 3) and Regional EU (Peep) r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 5
Contrasting trends of biodiversity impact: forest in EU r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 6
Suggestions for improvements Methodology for construction of pressure indices Considering agricultural landscapes (agroecosystems) dose-respons relationships from species abundance literature Upscaling local information Downscaling global information r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 7
Overall Biodiversity B = LU * Agr* For * C * N * F B = Biodiversity of a region LC = biodiversity value for land cover type Agr = biodiversity reduction due to agriculture For = biodiversity reduction due to forestry C = biodiversity loss due to climate change N = biodiversity loss due to Nitrogen pollution F = biodviversity loss due to Fragmentation r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 8
Data flow in the Global Biodiversity Model r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 9
Biodiversity impact from land use change r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 10
Examples from literature r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 11
Biodiversity effects of Land cover change r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 12
Biodiversity impact from agricultural intensity r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 13
Comparison organic and conventional Farming r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 14
Biodiversity loss due to of landuse change r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 15
Expected ecosytem quality in agroecosystems based on average production intensity (per Farming System) Average based on land use change only r 30% Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 16
Biodiversity loss per farming system GLOBIO 3 pressure approach (2000) Remaining biodiversity? Forest based farming system Coastal plantation & mixed Intensive Highland Mixed North Andes r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 94% 73% 53% 17
Biovalores (ecosistema x producción) Siglas Arbor bha A. erosión Arroz Banano Cacao Camar Frutales Maíz 0, 10 bhai bhc 0, 25 0, 10 bhmor 0, 25 0, 10 0, 40 0, 10 0, 25 Natural Pastos 1, 00 0, 40 forestales 0, 10 1, 00 0, 40 bsmor 1, 00 bsoc 0, 25 0, 10 0, 40 0, 10 0, 25 h 0, 10 0, 25 0, 10 0, 30 0, 10 0, 25 1, 00 0, 40 1, 00 m 0, 10 n 0, 10 ph 0, 10 ps 0, 10 vhi 0, 10 0, 25 1, 00 0, 20 vsi 0, 25 r 0, 10 1, 00 0, 25 1, 00 0, 20 1, 00 Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 18
Ecosystem quality in Ecuador r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 19
Ecosystem quality for agroecosystems per ecosystem in Ecuador r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 20
Área intervenida, mosaico y natural 50 -70% ecosystem quality r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 21
Biodiversity impact from Climate Change r Shifts of Biomes (IMAGE) and species (Euromove) Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 22
Biodiversity impact from Climate Change r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 23
Downscaling from the global model Biodiversity Situation 2000 NCI Loss by land use change 27% Loss by international air pollution 0% Loss by climate change 2% Loss by agricultural intensification 5% Loss by forest explotation 1% ____________________ Natural Capital (2000) 65% r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 24
Trends of biodiversity change on quality of ecosystems r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 25
Interaction of stakeholders with reference to the evaluation of the 2010 target indicators models r monitoring Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 26
End r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 27
Which process to indicate? The uniformity process of biodiversity loss: many rare species becoming more rare and few common species becoming more common (change of abundance or distribution of species) Main factors: r - habitat loss - loss ecosystem quality Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 28
The Natural Capital Index: Biodiversity =area size x ecosystem quality Ecosystem quality = average abundance/distribution of a set of characteristic species in relation to an ideal, original or historical reference r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 29
Natural Capital 2001 for Ecuadorian ecosystems r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 30
Comparison biodiversity state (NCI) of two ecosystems in Ecuador 87, 23 77, 05 7, 35 2, 83 bha = 87, 23 5, 1 28, 20 7, 14 r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 15, 96 31
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