Intermediate Macroeconomics Intermediate Macroeconomics Purchasing Power Parity Intermediate

名义汇率 • Intermediate Macroeconomics

实际汇率 • Intermediate Macroeconomics

购买力平价（Purchasing Power Parity） • Intermediate Macroeconomics

一个例子 • Intermediate Macroeconomics

汇率和通胀 • Intermediate Macroeconomics

汇率和利率 • Intermediate Macroeconomics

当世界利率上升 Exchange rate e 1 1’ 2 2’ Output Y

从1973到 1996 L: liberalized R: repressed LL: largely liberalized PR: partly repressed B: banks F: foreign D: domestic NBFI: non-bank financial institutions

美元指数 USDX 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

泰国的经常账户 Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 15 10 5 0 (5) (10) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

泰国的外债 Thailand's External Debt (USD mn) 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Long-term external debt 1990 1991 1992 1993 Short-term external debt 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

实际GDP增长率 Thailand's Real GDP Growth 15 10 5 0 2009 -5 1997 -10 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

-9 ма 6 р9 ма 6 й 9 ию 6 л 96 се н 96 но я 96 ян в 9 ма 7 р9 ма 7 й 9 ию 7 л 97 се н 97 но я 97 ян в 9 ма 8 р9 ма 8 й 9 ию 8 л 98 се н 98 но я 98 ян в 9 ма 9 р9 ма 9 й 9 ию 9 л 99 се н 99 но я 99 ян в 0 ма 0 р0 ма 0 й 0 ию 0 л 00 се н 00 но я 00 ян в 危机扩散 Asian Exchange Rates 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Thailand Indonesia South Korea Malaysia Taiwan

印尼的外债 Indonesia's External Debt (USD mn) 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Long-term external debt 1990 1991 1992 1993 Short-term external debt 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

印尼的实际GDP增长率 Indonesia's Real GDP Growth 15 10 5 2008金融危机 0 (5) (10) (15) 亚洲金融危机 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

香港的实际GDP增长率 Hong Kong's Real GDP Growth 15 10 5 0 (5) 2008 亚洲金融危机 (10) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

18000 10000 4000 0 02/01/1996 31/01/1996 05/03/1996 03/04/1996 07/05/1996 05/06/1996 08/07/1996 06/08/1996 05/09/1996 04/10/1996 05/11/1996 04/12/1996 07/01/1997 05/02/1997 11/03/1997 11/04/1997 12/05/1997 11/06/1997 15/07/1997 13/08/1997 12/09/1997 17/10/1997 17/11/1997 16/12/1997 19/01/1998 20/02/1998 23/03/1998 24/04/1998 25/05/1998 23/06/1998 23/07/1998 24/08/1998 22/09/1998 26/10/1998 25/11/1998 24/12/1998 26/01/1999 01/03/1999 30/03/1999 03/05/1999 01/06/1999 02/07/1999 02/08/1999 31/08/1999 30/09/1999 02/11/1999 01/12/1999 恒生指数（1996 -1999） Hang Seng Index (1996 -1999) 泰�危机 16000 14000 12000 黑色星期四 8000 6000 金管局入场 2000

经济影响 • 危机导致东南亚以及 韩国经济大幅缩水， 多年以后美元计价的G DP才回到 1996年水平。 • 除韩国外，东南亚没 能延续 80年代到 1996 年的高增长。 Per Capita GDP Index (1996: 100) 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Indonesia Malaysia Thailand South Korea Philippines China

美元计价的人均GDP（1996 -2019） Per Capita GDP (USD) 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Indonesia Malaysia Thailand South Korea Philippines China