INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE WMO UNEP The

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE WMO UNEP The History of the IPCC and its relationship with the UNFCCC Renate Christ Secretary of the IPCC Event at COP-10 Buenos Aires, December 2004

IPCC Plenary IPCC Bureau Working Group 1 Working Group 2 Working Group 3 The Scientific Basis Vulnerability Impacts Adaptation Mitigation TSU TSU IPCC Secretariat Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories TSU Authors - Contributors - Reviewers - Review Editors Peer reviewed scientific, technical and socio-economic literature IPCC

IPCC Writing and Review Process PLENARY Accepts/approves report PLENARY approves outline Government distribution Authors selection 1 st DRAFT 2 nd DRAFT Expert review FINAL DRAFT Expert + government review Peer reviewed scientific technical literature IPCC

Relation IPCC-SBSTA COP-1 requested SBSTA to • Summarise and compile information inter alia from IPCC into forms appropriate for COP • Seek advice from IPCC on methodologies • Consider IPCC SAR requested AGBM to • Use best available scientific, technical and socio-economic information including from IPCC

Responses to UNFCCC requests • 1992 Supplement Report • 1994 Special Report • Regular Assessment Reports (1990) 1995, 2001 • Methodologies on Inventories 1994, 1996, 2000, 2003 IPCC

Responses to UNFCCC requests • SR on Regional Impacts 1997 • SR on Technology Transfer 2000 • SR on LULUCF 2000 • TP Technologies, Policies and Measures 1996 • TP Simple Climate Models 1997 • TP on Stabilization 1997 • TP on Implications of CO 2 Limitations 1997 IPCC

Other IPCC Reports • SR Aviation and Global Atmosphere 1999 - ICAO, MP • SR on Emissions Scenarios 2000 • TP Biodiversity 2002 CBD IPCC

COP consideration of SAR COP-2 1996 • Recognized and endorsed SAR • Noted specifically three main findings • Welcomed IPCC commitment to work on SBSTA requests COP-3 1997 • Appreciation to IPCC for input to Convention • Asked SBSTA to formulate questions for SYR IPCC

COP consideration of TAR COP-7 2001 • Appreciation for TAR, Encouraged AR 4 COP-8 2002 • Highlighted IPCC findings on need for significant cut of emissions to meet Art. 2 COP-9 2003 • Two new SBSTA agenda items IPCC

1990 – 1 st IPCC Report WG 1 Emissions from human activities increase substantially concentrations of GHGs This results in additional warming 0. 3 o. C per decade SLR 6 cm per decade

1995 SAR WG 1 GHG concentrations continued to increase Aerosols produce negative radiative forcing Climate has changed over the past century Balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate Climate change expected to continue

2001 - IPCC TAR WG 1 WG I conclusions Collective picture of a warming world Confidence in ability of models to project future climate has increased There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities IPCC

2001 - IPCC TAR WG 1 WG I conclusions (cont) Emissions of GHGs and aerosols continue to alter the atmosphere Temperature and sea level expected to rise Atmospheric climate change will persist for many centuries IPCC

1990 - 1 st IPCC Report WG 2 Assessed impacts on main sectors Uncertainties with regard to timing, magnitude and regional patters Impacts felt most severely in regions under stress

1995 SAR WG 2 Climate change adds new stress Most systems are sensitive Impacts difficult to quantify Successful adaptation depends on technology, institutions, finance and information Vulnerability increases as adaptive capacity decreases Detection difficult, unexpected changes possible

2001 - IPCC TAR WG 2 WG II conclusions Recent regional climate changes affected many physical and biological systems Preliminary indications that human systems have been affected Natural systems are vulnerable and some will be irreversibly damaged Many human systems are sensitive to climate change and some are vulnerable IPCC

2001 - IPCC TAR WG 2 WG II conclusions (cont. ) Projected changes in climate extremes could have major consequences Risks for large scale and possibly irreversible impacts need to be quantified Adaptation necessary to complement mitigation Those with least resources are most vulnerable Adaptation, sustainable development and equity mutually reinforcing IPCC

1 st IPCC Report 1990 – WG 3 Sectoral subgroups on adaptive and mitigative response options Flexible approach of shorter term and more intensive action over the longer term Draft Convention text Special committee on participation of developing countries

1995 SAR WG 3 Portfolio of mitigation, adaptation, knowledge improvement Earlier mitigation increases flexibility in moving towards stabilization Significant "no-regrets" opportunities Risk of damage and precautionary principle provide rationales for action beyond no-regrets

2001 - IPCC TAR WG 3 WG III conclusions Portfolio of mitigation, technology development and reduction of scientific uncertainty increases flexibility in moving towards stabilization Alternative development paths result in different greenhouse gas emissions Climate change mitigation affected by and have impacts on development, sustainability and equity IPCC

2001 - IPCC TAR WG 3 WG III conclusions (cont. ) Significant tech. progress, faster than anticipated Forests, agricultural lands offer significant, not necessarily permanent mitigation potential 550 ppmv, 450 ppmv or below over the next 100 possible with known technological options Limitations possible at no or negative social costs Integration with non-climate policy objectives IPCC

Further Information www. ipcc. ch – All completed IPCC Reports and Technical Papers since 1996 and Translations – List of publications – Official documents and meeting reports – Calendar of events Working Group websites – Pre session documentation for meetings – Closed sites for authors IPCC