INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES PROGRAMME UNEP WMO The 2006 IPCC Guidelines Simon Eggleston Head, Technical Support Unit for the IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme

Note: Ø Production of new guidelines is still at an early stage (due 2006) ü Guidelines still need to be compiled and reviewed ü So cannot state definitively contents of new guidelines Ø Can indicate areas where changes or additions are anticipated Ø We will introduce issues that have arisen while drafting the volumes Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC 2

The Existing IPCC Guidelines Ø Comprise three parts: ü Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines For National Greenhouse Gas Inventories ü Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (GPG 2000) ü Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (GPG 2003) Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC 3

Guidelines have been very successful. Ø The approach provides options for all countries. Ø There are methods for almost all source and sink categories. Ø The IPCC created standardized reporting tables Ø Successfully standardized source sink category definitions, units, classifications, and reporting techniques Ø Have become the standard reference for inventories Ø Have played a critical role in furthering the goals of the UNFCCC. Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC 4

IPCC Good Practice Guidance Ø Framework for prioritizing resources through guidance on methodological choice and key category analysis Ø Guidance on QA/QC, quantitative uncertainty analysis, methodological choice, reporting and documentation, time series and consistency Ø LULUCF change from activity-based to land usebased accounting system Ø New guidance on land classification, Kyoto accounting, additional categories Ø New reporting structure and tables Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC 5

However Ø Basis of Guidelines now 10 years old Ø New information, scientific and technical advances have appeared Ø Further sources have been identified or have arisen Ø Time for a complete revision of the guidelines Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC 6

Mandate Ø SBSTA 17 invited the IPCC to revise the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, taking into consideration the relevant work under the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol, and to aim to complete the work by early 2006. Ø In response to the SBSTA request, IPCC agreed the terms of reference and outline of the work at IPCC XXI in late 2003. Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC 7

2006 Guidelines Ø Will be based on ü the existing Guidelines and Good Practice Guidance reports ü Emission Factor Database (EFDB) ü Advances in science and technology ü The experience in the use of GLs/GPGs as well as experience from UNFCCC inventory reviews (e. g. FCCC/SBSTA/2003/INF. 10) Ø A key principle will be to approach the revision with flexibility but to maintain the existing structure as much as possible to facilitate the job of inventory preparers (evolution not revolution) Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC 8

2006 Guidelines – 5 Volumes Contents: Overview 1. Cross-cutting Issues, and Reporting Tables 2. Energy 3. Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) 4. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) 5. Waste Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC 9

Volume 1: Cross-cutting topics Ø Revised and consistent general guidance on ü QA/QC, ü Quantitative uncertainty analysis, ü Methodological choice, ü Data selection, ü Reporting and documentation, ü Time series and consistency Ø NEW recommendation for key category analysis level of assessment Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC 10

Volume 2: Energy Ø Methods for most sources are well developed from the 1996 Guidelines and Good Practice Ø Some important issues: ü Treatment of energy use of fossil fuel, ü Accounting for atmospheric oxidation of CH 4, NMVOCs, and CO (e. g. , fugitive CH 4 from coal mining, oil & gas) ü Capture and storage of CO 2 ü Abandoned coal mines ü Aviation and marine emissions Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC 11

Volume 3: IPPU Ø Merging of Industrial Processes and Solvents chapters from the 1996 Guidelines Ø Significant development on F-gases Ø Areas for new work: ü Flat-panel display ü Broader coverage of mineral and chemical industry Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC 12

Volume 4: AFOLU Ø New structure merges Agriculture and LUCF to resolve inconsistencies and avoid double counting/omissions. Ø Builds on the work of GPG 2000 and GPG 2003, particularly the shift to consistent land classification approach Ø Countries have had very little experience with LUCF GPG Ø General need to streamline the guidance in LUCF GPG Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC 13

Volume 5: Waste Ø No major restructuring necessary Ø Areas for further development/new methods: ü Improvement of emission factors for developing countries ü Methodological work on accounting for reductions in CH 4 from landfills Ø Development of improved Default method for Landfill sites Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC 14

2006 Guidelines - Gases Current coverage: CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, HFCs, PFCs and SF 6 (direct GHGs) NOx, CO and NMVOC and SO 2 (indirect GHG; precursors) New gases identified in the IPCC TAR will be included if they meet following criteria: ü GWP Available ü Anthropogenic sources identified ü Basis for methodological development ü Relative importance total emissions Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC 15

Precursors & Indirect GHG Ø NOx, CO and NMVOC and SO 2 Ø A need for development for New methods for ozone precursors is not anticipated as these are addressed under other agreements and conventions. Ø Users referred to other guidance Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC 16

2006 Guidelines – New Sources Ø New Sources will be included if the following criteria are met: ü Basis for methodological development including the ability to develop default emission factors exists ü It is feasible to obtain the necessary data to implement the method ü The source is significant within the sector. Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC 17

Work Plan Jul 04 IPPU Washington Jun 04 AFOLU Mauritius May 04 CC & CLA Oslo Nov 04 Waste Canada Sep 04 Energy Arusha May 04 - Dec 04 Write First Order Draft 2004 Jan 05 First Order Draft Dec 05 Final Draft Jun 05 Produce Second Order Draft Mar 05 - Apr 05 Expert Review Sep 05 - Oct 05 Expert/Government Review 2005 Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC May 06 SUBSTA 24 Apr 06 IPCC Approval Mar 06 Government Consideration 2006 18

Conclusions Ø Writing is still continuing - First Order Draft nearly finished – due January 2005 Ø Review not undertaken yet - So cannot be definitive on any changes in guidelines Ø However many improvements identified Ø Guidelines to target for delivery in 2006 Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC 19