Interamerican Institute for Global Change Research Cooperative Research

Interamerican Institute for Global Change Research Cooperative Research Network Diagnostics and Prediction of Climate Variability and Human Health Impacts in the Tropical Americas OBJECTIVES: • Research: Conduct research, both empirical and conceptual, aimed at generating knowledge about climate/health associations and appropriate tools for data analysis, with a focus on malaria and dengue. • Network building: a) strengthen the flow of information about the impact of climatic variability on human health in the Tropical Americas; b) develop dialogue about interdisciplinary research issues with other organizations working in public health, ecology, climatology and social science; c) build regional capacity to disseminate and utilize effectively data on climate prediction and health. • Training: a) increase opportunities for Latin American nationals for training in climate and health research; b) conduct regional workshops an climate and health in the Tropical Americas. METHODS: Multi-Disciplinary Approach Epidemiology Modelling (System Dynamics) RESULTS: • Characterization of a natural decrease in malaria incidence during ENSO years in northern Amazonia, Brazil. • Development of a conceptual model on the social vulnerability of the population to the health impacts of climate variability in tropical America. • Dengue epidemics have a pronounced seasonality (peaking in the later half of the year) in the Caribbean and are more probable in an El Niño or El Niño + 1 year. There appears to be a close association of the epidemic with temperature. • Temperature strongly affects the life cycle of An. albimanus, the main malaria vector in Colombia. • Modeling efforts confirm the importance of temperature in explaining malaria incidence in Colombia. • Preliminary analysis (vector control variables not included) show an association precipitation/malaria stronger than for temperature in Mexico. • Important outbreaks of dengue fever were observed during the 1997 -1998 ENSO in Mexico. • Positive correlation of malaria with mean relative humidity and monthly minimum temperature in Venezuela. Relative Humidity and Malaria API, Sifontes, Bolivar, Venezuela (1993 -2001) Cases of Dengue, Precipitation and Temperature in Veracruz, Mexico (1995 -2002) IPA for Malaria and SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) in Roraima, Brazil (1980 -1985) IPA 30 Field Entomology MALARIA 4 SOI 2 25 0 20 -2 15 -4 10 Vulnerability Analysis -6 5 -8 Set/85 Mai/85 Jan/85 Set/84 Mai/84 Jan/84 Set/83 Mai/83 Jan/83 Set/82 Mai/82 Jan/82 Set/81 Mai/81 Jan/81 Set/80 Mai/80 -10 Jan/80 0 Malaria Climate–Sensitive Diseases Retrospective Prospective (Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela and Mexico) Dengue Fever (Brazil, Mexico and Jamaica) Analysis Main linkages and Temperature x Malaria in Colombia. feedbacks between diverse Time series of model results for base components of the scenario. mathematical model. (2000/2004) Initial Page of Web Site PUBLICATIONS: PARTICIPATING COUNTRIES / INSTITUTIONS: • BRAZIL: FIOCRUZ • USA: IRI, NOAA, SCS, Univ. of Florida, Univ. of Colorado • VENEZUELA: Instituto de Altos Estudios en Salud Pública • COLOMBIA: Univ. Nacional de Colombia, Medellín • MEXICO: Inst. de Salud, Ambiente y Trabajo • JAMAICA: Univ. West Indies, Mona • 27 Investigators. • Students: 4 Doctoral; 7 Master; 5 Undergraduate. ASSOCIATED PROJECTS: • Assessment of the Vulnerability of the Brazilian Population to the Health Impacts of Climate Change (Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, funded by the Brazilian Ministry of Science and Technology). • The Threat of Dengue Fever – Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in Human Health in the Caribbean (University of West Indies, funded by GEF/UNEP). Studying mosquito breeding sites at Nuqui, Colombia. • ARON JL; CORVALAN CF; PHILIPPEAUX H (Eds. ). 2002. Climate Variability and Change and their Health Effects in the Caribbean: Information for Adaptation Planning in the Health Sector. Conference May 21 -22, 2002, Workshop May 23 -25, 2002, St. Philip, Barbados, West Indies. WHO/SDE/PHE/02. 01, WHO, Geneva (in press). • CHEN AA, TAYLOR MA. 2002. Investigating the link between Caribbean early season rainfall and the El Niño + 1 year. Int Journal of Climatology, 22: 87 -106. • CONFALONIERI UEC. 2003. Climate Variability, Social Vulnerability and Human Health in Brazil. Proc. V Brazilian Congress on Geographic Climatology (in press). • DIAZ HF; KOVATS RS; MCMICHAEL AJ; NICHOLLS N. 2001. Climate and human health linkages on multiple timescales. In: History and Climate: Memories of the Future? (Jones PD, Davies TD, Ogilvie AEJ, Briffa KR, eds. ), Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers, New York, pp. 267 -289. • NOBRE AA; LOPES HF. 2002. Spatial analysis of the relationships between malaria and rainfall in the State of Pará. First National Symp. Probability and Statistics, A. Lindóia, Brazil, July 2002 (in press). • POVEDA G; ROJAS W; VÉLEZ ID; QUIÑONES M; MANTILLA RI; RUIZ D; ZULUAGA J; RUA G. 2001. Coupling between Annual and ENSO timescales in the Malaria-Climate association in Colombia. Environmental Health Perspectives, 109: 489 -493. • RUA G; QUIÑONES ML; ZULUAGA JS; VELEZ ID; POVEDA G; ROJAS W; RUIZ D; MANTILLA R. 2002. El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related to malaria transmission, density and parity of Anopheles albimanus and Anopheles darlingi in two areas in Colombia. Medical and Veterinary Entomology (in press).