Interagency CivilianMilitary Integration Training Program District Stability Framework

Interagency Civilian-Military Integration Training Program District Stability Framework Simplifying the Application Mentor Learning Materials

Basic Definitions Irregular Activity Use or threat of force by irregular forces, groups or individuals, frequently ideologically or criminally motivated, to effect or prevent change as a challenge to governance and authority. Insurgency An organized, ideologically motivated group or movement that seeks political changes in a region, focused on persuading or coercing the population of a region through violence, subversion and propaganda. Counterinsurgency The set of political, economic, social, military, law enforcement, civil and psychological activities with the aim to defeat insurgency and address any core grievances. Last Updated: SEP 2011 POC: CTC-A 2

Fragile States Framework: Instability

The Central Problem “Understanding Afghan popular perceptions at the province, district, and local level is critical and usually ignored in official reporting…. success in the area must be based on Afghan terms and values and the focal point for all activity must be the impact on Afghan perceptions and attitudes. ” -- CSIS AF-PAK report

Framework for Counterinsurgency Approach to COIN 1. Separate insurgents from Population 2. Connect Population to Government 3. Transform Environment to be inhospitable to Insurgents HN Gov. Psychological Alternate State Political Coalition Political Moral PRTs/DSTs Military Partner Unit OMLT/POMLT Physical Civ Insurgents People Psychological Military HN Security Forces COIN Principles Legitimacy Unity of Effort Political is Primary Understand the Environment Intelligence Isolate Insurgents Security Rule of Law 8 Janunder 08 Long term Commitment Physical External (Non)State Actor Resources Sanctuary Physical Insurgents Prerequisites Vulnerable Population Leadership Available for Direction Lack of Government Control Insurgency Dynamics Leadership Ideology Objective Environment External Support Internal Support Phasing Organization

Obstacles to Effective Stabilization • Lack of a standardized assessment process that allows civilians and military to develop a common view of the causes of instability • Civilian programs and military operations are not linked and synched • Failure to make the local population the focal point • Failure to integrate tactical information into strategic planning • Programming based on LOOs created at higher HQ, not local conditions • Failure to target the root causes of instability • Reporting focused on outputs, not impacts 6

Addressing Instability • Instability results when factors fostering instability overwhelmed the ability of the society or government to mitigate them. • Assessment of the local environment is necessary for effective targeting and strategic planning. • The population’s perceptions must be included when identifying causes of instability. • Measures of effectiveness are the only true measures of success.

Instability results when the factors fostering instability overwhelm the ability of the host nation to mitigate them. These factors include: • Grievances - factors that can foster instability. They are the result of unmet expectations or perception that individual or group interests are being threatened. • Key actors - people or groups with the means and motivation to transform grievances into instability. • Events link grievances to the key actors. Events are neutral - they simply occur.

Needs versus Priority Grievances • Need – something which would improve the level of human development. Examples include: potable water, educational opportunities, access to health care, infrastructure, security, justice. • Priority Grievance – issue that a significant percentage of locals – not outside experts – identify as a priority for their community. Examples include: potable water, educational opportunities, access to health care, infrastructure, security, justice. • Distinction – a matter of who identifies the issue and whether a significant percentage of the population identify the issue as a priority.

Sources of Instability are usually a small subset a priority grievances that: • Directly undermine support for the government • Increased support for insurgents • Disrupt the normal function of society Examples • A conflict between two tribes with one drive aligns itself with insurgents because the rival tribe controls local government • Insurgents take advantage of a priority grievance (land conflicts) to gain/expand influence in the community by convening a Sharia court to resolve them.

Parallel Mitigating Forces • Resiliencies – societal or government capacities which can mitigate the populations grievances. • Key actors - people or groups with the means and motivation to mitigate grievances and foster stability. • Events – become windows of opportunity if prepared for and/or handled correctly. • Local environment context – geography, demography, natural resources, history, regional or international factors.

Measures of Effectiveness Impact indicators used together to measure stability. • Civilian Night Road Movement • Government Legitimacy • Public Security Concerns • Population Movement because of Insecurity • Enemy Initiated Attacks of ANSF • Afghan Civilian Casualties • Intimidation of Government Officials

District Stability Framework (DSF) The District Stability Framework (DSF) is an operational framework and process that allows tactical-level units to identify root causes of instability and grievances that give the insurgency traction in their specific local area of operations and execute effective, integrated, and unified stability programs that directly address those grievances in order to create stable local environments and set the conditions for the ISAF strategic mission to be accomplished.

District Stability Framework Stability-Focused Program Management Tool The District Stability Framework (DSF) is a set of tools for analyzing a district-specific context, planning stability activities, monitoring impact, and coordinating the collective efforts of multiple actors in a district. Monitoring Situational Awareness Analysis & Evaluation • Civilians and military have a common terminology and framework for working jointly in Stability Working Groups. • DSF measures the impact activities are having, not just what (trainings, wells, roads) they are producing • DSF provides a historical record of both good and bad ideas while ensuring continuity of effort for all actors and fostering cross-agency coordination and communication. Design 14

District Stability Framework (DSF) • Focuses on Stabilization not Development • Provides a common civil-military operating picture • Is a field-level analysis, planning, and programming tool • Provides information for integration into higher level civilian-military planning • Creates a baseline to measure whether stability is increasing/decreasing

Stability Working Group S 2 Local Gvt Officials Population Centric Analysis USAID Tribes/Cultural Analysis HN Govt Enemy Influence on Target Areas XO/S 3 Tribal/Cultural input Do. S HN Security Forces USDA SWG Current and Future Ops Target Sources of Instability Official/Unofficial Links to Provincial and National Level Gov S 2, S 3, S 9 NGOs CA/IO/PSYOP Radio & Print Messages CERP – Stabilization Assistance Support from Embassy USAID/USDA Civil Society HTT CA Engagement with Local Population Key Leader Information Do. S NGOs/Implementing Partners Local knowledge, Resources Stabilization Assistance (resources) Links to NGOs/Contractors Links to Provincial and National Level Gov

Evolution of the Stability Working Group ANA MOJ (formal and informal) Do. S MRRD SWG? Tribal Elders District Governor MOPH District Govt USAID MAIL DDA Battle Space Owner ANP Do. E CF Liaison District Government Transition CLEAR ANA NGOs Civil Affairs Shuras SHAPE Shuras District Gov’t MRRD SWG Local VSO Company officer MOJ HOLD BUILD TRANSITION Focuses on Stability Programming Targeting Sources of Instability

District Stability Framework 1. Understand the Local Environment Observe the local environment Orient yourself to stability dynamics i. Understand the Operating Environment ii. Understand the Cultural Environment iii. Identify Causes of Instability & Stability iv. Integrate Local Perceptions and Grievances 2. Design, Implement, Measure Decide on a stability program i. Decide Which Grievances to Address ii. Decide on Measures of Effect iii. Design and Implement the Program Act and assess iv. Measure the Effect

Tactical Level Stability Operations 1. Understand the Local Environment ASCOPE/PMESII drives Focus Analyses DSF Data i. Understand the Operating Environment ii. Understand the Cultural Environment iii. Identify Causes of Instability & Stability iv. Integrate Local Perceptions and Grievances 2. Design, Implement, Measure Tactical Stability Matrix i. Decide Which Cause to Address ii. Decide What Measures of Effect to Use iii. Design and Implement the Program Monthly Stability Assessments iv. Measure the Effect

DSF Methodology - Analysis • To increase stability in your AO, you must understand what is causing instability. This understanding is based on a view through four “lenses”: – Operational environment (political, military, economic, social, infrastructure, and information) – Cultural Environment (tribe, clan, religion, language, etc. ) – Instability Dynamics (grievances, resiliencies, key actors, events) – Local perceptions (KLEs, HTS reports, local staff, surveys, focus groups…) • Until you understand your operating environment, your programming will not be effective. In some cultures, honor, justice, and revenge matter more 20 than schools, roads, and jobs! 20

ASCOPE/PMESII – Operating Environment ASCOPE • Areas • Structures • Capabilities • Organizations • People • Events PMESII • Political • Military • Economic • Social • Infrastructure • Information • Forms the foundation of collection efforts • Generates information to conduct focus analyses • Facilitates organization and continuity of information • Generates RFIs

P Military/ Security ﺍﻣﻨیﺖ / ﻧﻈﺎﻣی E S I I Economic ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ Social ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋی Infrastructure ﺯیﺮﺑﻨﺎ Information ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ District /Provincial boundary, Party affiliation areas, INS shadow govt influence area Coalition/ANSF bases, historic ambush/IED sites/Insurgent bases Bazaar areas, farming areas, , auto repair shops, Smuggling routes, Locations of illicit exchange, mines Traditional picnic areas, bazaars, outdoor shura sites Irrigation networks, water tables, areas with medical services Radio/TV/paper coverage areas, word of mouth gathering points, Graffiti, posters Provincial/District Centers, Shura halls, polling sites, Court House, Mobile Courts Provincial/District Police HQ’s, INS known leader house/business Bazaar, wheat storage, banks, mining structure, industrial plants Mosques, Wedding halls, popular restaurants Roads, bridges, electrical lines, gabion walls, dams Cell, radio and TV towers, print shops Dispute resolution, local leadership, INS ability to have impact Judiciary capacity, TB Ombudsman Committee ANSF providing 24/7 security? QRF present? INS strength/weapons, Enemy recruiting potential Access to banks, ability to withstand drought, development, Estimated size of black market, Irrigation potential Strength of tribal/village traditional structures, mullahs, Traditional means of justice (Shura) Ability to build/maintain roads, walls, check dams, irrigation system, sewage Literacy rate, availability of electronic media, phone service Political parties, INS group affiliations, GOV & NGO organization, Court system, JSSP trainers Coalition & ANSF present, INS groups present Banks, large landholders, cooperatives, economic NGO’s, Major illicit industries Tribes, clans, families, sports shuras, youth shuras Government Ministries, Construction companies News organizations, influential mosques, INS IO groups Governors, councils, shura members, elders, mullahs, Judges, prosecutors, TB Ombudsman Coalition, ANSF, INS military leaders Bankers, landholders, merchants, money lenders, Illegal facilitators, smuggling chain Mullahs, maliks, elders, shura members, influential families, Entertainment figures Builders, road contractors, local development councils Media owners, mullahs, maliks, elders, heads of families Elections, Shuras, Jirgas, Provincial council meetings, speeches, JSSP training sessions Significant trials; TB Courts Kinetic events, unit RIP’s, loss of leadership, operations Drought, harvest, business opening, loss of business, good/bad crop, Poppy harvest Friday prayers, holidays, weddings, deaths/funerals, births, bazaar days Road/bridge construction, well digging, center/school construction Friday prayers, publishing dates, IO campaigns, project openings, CIVCAS incidents Political ﺳیﺎﺳی A Areas ﺳﺎﺣﺎﺕ S Structures ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ C Capabilities ﺗﻮﺍﻧﺎیی ﻫﺎ O Organizations ﺳﺎﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻫﺎ P People ﻣﺮﺩﻡ E Events ﺯﻭیﺪﺍﺩ ﻫﺎ M

Focus Analysis - Cultural Environment Tribal and religious factors play a highly significant role in Afghan culture. Understanding these factors is a key step in understanding local stability dynamics. Areas of focus: • Structure and organization of key groups (genealogy, history, leadership, linkages, values, interests, alliances, enemies, territory, etc. ) and the reasons for them • Relationships and tensions among groups, current and historical (blood feuds) • Tribal rituals and conflict resolution • Traditional authorities and limits to their power and influence • How insurgents use them

Tactical Conflict Survey • A simple survey specially designed to support Stability Operations • Four short questions: – “Has the number of people in the village changed in the last year? ” – “What is the most important problem facing the village? ” – “Who do you believe can solve your problems? ” – “What should be done first to help the village? ” Always followed with “Why? ”

Local Perceptions What is the most important problem facing the village? Last Updated: SEP 2011 POC: CTC-A Sample local perception quotes: • “Safi get all the reconstruction projects” • “Enemies of govt cross border at will” • “We (Salarzai) have less electricity than others” • “Eight cholera cases in last 2 weeks” • “Our (Salarzai) candidates got no votes” • “Government should do more for the health of our women and children” • “Safi took our (Salarzai) land, hurt our honor” • “Police don’t do enough to protect us from bad people” • “Not enough water anymore to support our crops” 26

Cultural Analysis Province: Wardak District: Saydebad Tribal Structure Tribal Interests Tribal Rituals and Conflict Resolution Ethnic Pashtun Honor Khilji (main Pashtun Tribe) 3 sub-tribes – majority: Mirkhil, Noori, Mayar 3 sub-tribes – minority: Naser, Alizai, Gadkhel Against influences of Dari speakers (of concern b/c there are Dari speakers in the Province and Saydebad in particular) Very pro-Islam – Mullah will be a close advisor to tribal leader. Traditionally land is important. Now education is important out of necessity, not enough land to cultivate. People need to get jobs. Traditional Authorities Mullah (works as an advisor) his word is never contradicted – achieves his position by studying/education and is appointed Malik is the tribal leader – has power and money – Ancestral/family position, handed down. Often associated with land wealth Limits to their Power Government authority – potentially Taliban – don’t want any competition to their authority Religion - Mullahs can limit the authority of the Maliks b/c Mullahs can’t be contradicted. everyday life – all aspects. As in any Pashtun area, Jurgas are important. CDCs have authority-they are an arena for discussing issues in the community During HIG times Mujahadeen Shura (mostly commanders) had authority (Taliban largely crushed these competing authorities) How do Insurgents use the Tribes? Play tribes off each other. If one has power with the gov’t, others may side with insurgents HIG has influence b/c they recruited educated people in the past. The powerless party in feud will chose the power source opposite of the party with the upper hand. Very minor sub-tribes are often disadvantaged; don’t receive support from the gov’t. Are targeted by TB/insurgents (tribes like Naser, Alizai, Gadkhel) Tajik-dominated ANP Radicalized youth returning Pastunwali – social code that governs

Focus Analysis – Factors of Stability/Instability At this point, we can begin to focus our analysis of the local environment specifically on stability dynamics. Use the ASCOPE/PMESII and cultural analysis to identify: • Known and potential grievances and resiliencies • Key actors and their means and motivations • Current and future significant events that could impact local stability dynamics

In/Stability Dynamics

Potential Stability Factors 1 Resiliencies Events • Presence and activity of Afghan NGOs (e. g. AWCI) • USG dam & reservoir project • Many schools exist / being built • • Significant natural resources potential (timber, gems, marble, mining) • • Local leaders creating informal village courts • Provincial Development Council • Provincial Development Plan • Provincial Peace and Reintegration Committee • Agricultural Potential • • Key Actors: Means and Motivations • Provincial Co. P is highly knowledgeable, welleducated, understands Ro. L Governor decision to raise system bazaar taxes • Sarkani Mullah Abdul Rahman PRT RIPTOA supports GIRo. A, decries Harvest radical mullahs, created informal court Ramadan • Sarkani District Deputy Governor Mohammad Akbar Khan, works closely with GIRo. A and U. S. , tries to reconcile with bombed village • Governor Wahidi well educated; experience in humanitarian relief and assistance; long history of fostering coordination and cooperation between agencies and organizations

Potential Stability Factors 2 Resiliencies Events Key Actors: Means and Motivations • Mohmand Elder, Haji Ali Mohmand organized an informal village court based on Sharia law • Salarzai Elder, Rashid Saidi, worked with coalition forces in the past to facilitate the payment of solatia and the reintegration of Taliban; teacher at the madrassa • Shinwari Elder, Haji Rahim Khan Shinwari, expert on Pashtunwala and reportedly has a lot of influence with the local people. played a key part in negotiations to win “good Taliban” away from the insurgency. He is known as an inconsistent and unpredictable partner. • International Medical Corps • Safi tribal elder Umara Khan respected; moderate

Potential Instability Factors Grievances • Water shortages • ISAF caused Civilian Casualties • Land disputes • Government corruption • Election fraud • Lack of healthcare • Lack of educational opportunities • Poor road infrastructure • Physical insecurity • Weak formal justice system • Tribal conflict & favoritism • Unemployment • Dilapidated water purification system • Timber smuggling Events Key Actors: Means and Motivations • USG dam & reservoir project • MP Fawad Safi – suspected of narco-trafficking, has ANP commanders on payroll • Governor decision to raise bazaar taxes • PRT RIPTOA • Harvest • Ramadan • Manogai District Judge Hasan Alizai, judments appear to favor Safi • Manogai clinic doctor – selling meds in bazaar, using in own practice • Governor Wahidi – suspected of tribal/family favoritism, corruption • District Co. P Commander Zalmay abuses prisoners; uncooperative • NDS Chief is perceived to be corrupt and compromised • Sheik Abad ABP police commander may be involved in weapons sales

Local Grievances • Safi-Salarzai tensions / inequity • Weak education system • Land disputes (especially dam area) • Civilian casualties • Access to electricity • Lack of healthcare • Poor road infrastructure • Government corruption • Weak formal judicial system • Physical insecurity • ANP/ABP ineffectiveness • Lack of employment • Timber smuggling • Dilapidated water purification system • Election fraud Where should you focus your time, attention, and resources?

Prioritized Causes of Instability The population has identified lack of physical security and lack of youth education as the most important grievances in the District. Key Questions: • • What source of instability should we address first? What are its systemic causes? What is the program objective? How will we measure the effectiveness of our program?

SOI Analysis Matrix Instability Criteria Potential Sources of Instability Does this issue decrease support for the Government / legit governance? Explain. Does this issue increase support for malign actors? Explain. Drawing from the four Situational Based on known Awareness public perceptions lenses, list all perceptions – or behavior – not potential not outsider Sources of assumptions! Instability (SOIs) Does this issue disrupt the normal functioning of society? Explain. Based on local definitions of “normal” – not those of outsiders! SOI? Prioritize Does the issue meet 2 of the 3 Instability criteria? Is the SOI a Priority Grievance for the local populace? For those If the issues that meets at are SOIs, least 2 of prioritize the 3 based on instability their criteria, it is importance considered to the local an SOI populace

Putting It All Together: SOIs from Grievances • Safi-Salarzai tensions / inequity • Weak education system • Land disputes (especially Dam area) • Civilian casualties • Access to electricity • Poor road infrastructure • Lack of employment • Weak formal judicial system • Government corruption • Physical insecurity • ANP/ABP ineffectiveness • Timber smuggling • Dilapidated water purification system • Lack of healthcare • Election fraud Where should you focus your time, attention, and resources?

SOI Analysis Matrix 1 SOI? Instability Criteria Potential Sources of Instability Does this issue decrease support for the Government / legit governance? Explain. Does this issue increase support for malign actors? Explain. Safi-Salarzai Yes. Evidence that Yes. Government tribal Salarzai turning to seen as favoring Safi tension/inequity AAF due inequity Lack of healthcare Probably. Healthcare generally No. AAF not seen as a providing healthcare government function Probably. Education Weak education No. AAF not generally seen as a system providing education govt responsibility Does this issue disrupt the normal functioning of society? Explain. Prioritization Does the Is the SOI a issue meet 2 Priority of the 3 Grievance for Instability the local criteria? populace? Yes. Threat of violence over land dispute, shops closing Yes (24%) Elect, Land, Tribal Probably No. Within local norms No No (8%) No. Education opportunities => historical norm No Yes (7%) Poor road infrastructure Unclear. Depends on whether people No. AAF not building No. Road network blame govt for poor roads. => historical norm roads No Yes (13%) Physical Insecurity Yes. Undermines Probably. GIRo. A has No. AAF not providing economic activity, many (ineffective) security. Rather, healthcare, life & security forces creating insecurity. limb Yes (16%)

SOI Analysis Matrix 2 SOI? Instability Criteria Potential Sources of Instability Does this issue decrease support for the Govt / legit governance? Explain. Does this issue increase support for malign actors? Explain. Does this issue disrupt the normal functioning of society? Explain. Does the Is the SOI a issue meet 2 Priority of the 3 Grievance for Instability the local criteria? populace? Lack of employment No. Governmet not Yes. AAF recruiting seen as provider unemployed youth No. Not above historical norms No Weak formal judicial system No. Not seen as a grievance (expectation) by population No. Informal system functioning No Yes. AAF providing justice system . Prioritization Yes (13%) No (0%)

DSF in KLEs Is the need/want/problem an SOI? • Who do people expect to provide this service / meet this need? • Who do people blame for this situation/problem? • How has this issue been resolved / need been met in the past? Why is that process/resource not working anymore? • Are the “enemies of Afghanistan” doing anything to meet this need or take advantage of this problem? • How long have things been this way? Have conditions gotten worse, or has it been like this for a long time?

DSF in AARs 1. Decrease support for the government or legitimate governance? a. HOW DO YOU KNOW? b. Do members of society expect that this is something the government SHOULD be addressing? 2. Increase support for malign actors? a. HOW DO YOU KNOW? b. Are the AAF providing these services when GIRo. A is not? c. If AAF are not providing this service, are they leveraging the issue as part of their strategic communications messaging?

DSF in AARs 3. Disrupt the normal functioning of society? a. HOW DO YOU KNOW? b. How is “normal” defined within this society? c. Has this service (healthcare, electricity, education etc. ) ever been available in this community? d. Does this problem prevent people from meeting their basic survival needs or going about their normal daily lives? e. Do people believe (for whatever reason) that this service is a normal, reasonable expectation?

Tactical Stability Matrix: Physical Security Grievance Causes (Perception) Police take bribes Lack of police presence Lack of Physical security Militias (ie ‘Campaign’) are shooting and robbing people CF bring insecurity CF cause civilian casualties House searchers are hated Causes (Systemic) Objective Police understaffed Police aren’t local Police are under paid, haven’t received promise raise Improve Physical Security through legitimate Militias are government poorly forces supervised, no accountability Criminals hired to join militias Civilian casualties and collateral damage attributed to CF presence Inappropriate house searches Impact Indicators Monitoring Methods Activities Output Indicators Monitoring Methods Grievance: A brief description of the problem or issue area, as identified by the population. Perceptive Causes: A more specific statement of the problem. The answer should come from the follow-up question “WHY” when using the DSF Questionnaire. Use quotes from the population. Root Causes: The systemic causes of the problems perceived by the population. Identifying root causes requires cooperative and partnered analysis by key players. Identify conditions that 1) led to these perceptions, 2) allow the problem to continue, and 3) prevent the problem from being fixed. Objective: A statement of the conditions that will diminish the identified grievance. Often, this is simply the reverse of the grievance.

Tactical Stability Matrix: Physical Security Grievance Perceptive Causes Police take bribes Root Causes Objective Police understaffed Police aren’t Impact Indicators: Measures local Lack of police of Effect. Should be directly presence Police are under related to Root Causes and paid, haven’t Militias (ie should measure the Improve received promise ‘Campaign’) Physical raise effectiveness of activities in are shooting Lack of Security people and Physical through Militias are achieving the objective. robbing security poorly supervised, no accountability legitimate government forces CF bring Activities: Actions and projects insecurity designed to directly effect the Criminals hired CF cause impact indicators. to join militias civilian casualties Output Indicators: Measures House of Performance. Determine the searchers are hated physical implementation of the activities, e. g. # of police trained, # road miles, $ spent, Inappropriate house searches etc. Civilian casualties and collateral damage attributed to CF presence Impact Indicators Monitoring Increased number of trained ANP PMT report Police are supported by the population Reduced number of militia incidents Reduced number of CF ops related civilian casualties Fewer complaints about inappropriat e house searchers Methods Activities Local Interviews Police vetting and training programs Highway police reports Targeted join patrols Intel reporting Investigate trucking company security firms Direct interaction with people/ anecdotal reporting House searches conducted following approved guidance IO Campaign to address CF house searches and why they have to be done Output Indicators Police paid fully authorized salary on time # of joint patrols RFI information gathered Number of appropriat ed house searches # of IO messages Monitoring Methods PMT report Local Interviews Highway police reports Intel reporting Direct interaction with people/ anecdotal reporting

Impact Indicators An IMPACT INDICATOR measures the effectiveness of your activity against a predetermined objective. Example: If “police abuse us” is the grievance, impact indicators might include: • Increased popular support • Population provides more actionable intelligence to the police • Increased positive police interaction with the population • Police presence in previously no-go areas • More public activity at night Note: Impact indicators measure the effect you are trying to achieve. Impact indicators are crucial for determining the success of failure of stability programming. Changes can be very subtle and might take time – an entire rotation or longer – to observe.

Activity Design Process – 5 Steps Brainstorm Activities Screen Against 3 Stability Criteria Refine Using 7 Design Principles Screen Against Available Resources Select Activities Solicit ideas, comments, and feedback from other actors throughout the process

Screen Against Three Stability Criteria Decrease support for malign actors? Increase support for government / legit governance institutions? Increase institutional and societal capacity and capability? ities Activ TY BILI A T S N I ITY IL STAB Population

Refine Using 7 Design Principles 1. Sustainability 2. Local ownership 3. Short-term vs. long-term results 4. Leverage/support OGA, IGO, NGO, and HN programs 5. Cultural and political acceptability 6. Strengthen gvt accountability and transparency 7. Flexibility

Screen Against Available Resources Do you have the resources to complete the activity? • • Money Personnel Expertise Time Select Activities that: • Passed screening against the Stability Criteria • Were successfully refined using the Design Principles • For which there are sufficient available resources

Activity Design Worksheet Stability Criteria (must meet 2 of 3) Select Is Activity Realistic? Time Expertise Personnel Money Flexibility Accountability/Transparency Culturally/Politically Appropriate Leverage Support from other Org. Short-term vs. Long Term Results Local Ownership Generate a list of potential activities that will address the systemic causes and contribute to achieving the objective for a given SOI. Sustainability Brainstorm Possible Activities Does the activity increase support for decrease institutional Government / support for and societal legit malign actors? capacity and governance? Explain. capability? Explain. Design Principles Resources Do you, or your Based on partners, Explain how the For each potential the stability have the Explain how the activity that meets activity will criteria, resources increase support Explain how the activity will at least 2 of the 3 design to increase for the activity will Stability Criteria, principles complete Government decrease support institutional and refine the proposed and the and/or for malign societal activity to make it resource activity? If legitimate actors capacity and meet as many as availability, not, capability. governance possible of the 7 should the eliminate institutions. Design Principles. activity be the implemente proposed d? activity.

Tactical Stability Matrix - Physical Security Grievance Perceived Causes Police take bribes Lack of police presence Lack of Physical security Militias (ie ‘Campaign’) are shooting people and robbing CF bring insecurity CF cause civilian casualties House searchers are hated Systemic Causes Objective Police understaffed Police aren’t local Police are under paid, haven’t received promise raise Improve Physical Security through legitimate Militias are government poorly forces supervised, no accountability Criminals hired to join militias Civilian casualties and collateral damage attributed to CF presence Inappropriate house searches Impact Indicators Increased number of trained ANP Police are supported by the population Reduced number of militia incidents Reduced number of CF ops related civilian casualties Fewer complaints about inappropriat e house searchers Monitoring Methods Activities Local Interviews Police vetting and training programs Highway police reports Targeted join patrols Intel reporting Investigate trucking company security firms PMT report Direct interaction with people/ anecdotal reporting House searches conducted following approved guidance IO Campaign to address CF house searches and why they have to be done Output Indicators Police paid fully authorized salary on time # of joint patrols RFI information gathered Number of appropriat ed house searches # of IO messages Monitoring Methods PMT report Local Interviews Highway police reports Intel reporting Direct interaction with people/ anecdotal reporting

Tactical Stability Matrix - Youth Grievance Perceived Systemic Causes Pashto students discriminated against for higher education Lack of higher Youth lack education opportunity, vulnerable to opportunities extremist influence Lack of employment Extremists influencing school students Large population of young people causes stiff competition for opportunities Youth attend extremist madrassa Youth vulnerable to extremist ideologies Lack of vocational opportunities Objective Impact Indicators Fewer youth available/ willing to go on TB payroll Youth has better perception of GIRo. A and is more resistant to TB influence More young people engaging with local government Local community provides security for sporting events Monitori ng Activities Methods S 2 reporting Youth ‘Shuras’ Patrol reports Sporting events linked with civics and local governance awareness DT reporting Local Interview s District Governor activities with schools (Nov) Youth civics groups through winter at school Output Indicators Monitoring Methods Shuras held Implement reports Sporting events held and attended Local youth engaged in activities through the winter Grant monitoring and reporting DT reports

Tactical Stability Matrix - Land Dispute Grievance Causes (Perception) Police/gvt officials support those who pay them the most GIRo. A unable to resolve Land Disputes The government uses the law to help its friends The Barakzai control the government There is no justice Our documents are lost / destroyed Others are on our land Causes (Systemic) Objective Violence linked to land disputes diminished Police/gvt officials are not paid on time Police/ justice officials do not go to rural areas Lack of govt. conflict resolution capability and capacity Destroyed/ conflicting land records IDPs have no land of their own Impact Indicator Data Sources Activities Investigate / remove corrupt officials Police/gvt officials are corrupt Govt. officials are not selected by population Impact Indicators Peaceful resolution of land disputes by govt. recognize d entities Increase in the number of government. recognized land deeds Increase in the number of land disputes resolved by government recognized entities Number of land disputes resolved by AGM decreasing DSF questionnaire Government records Public surveys Patrol Reports Interviews Assessments Establish direct deposit for police / government officials Encourage government appointment of non-Barakzai Establish a mobile government. dispute resolution unit Link shuras to government to resolve land disputes Revamp / establish land records system Identify permanent homes for IDPs Conduct IO campaign Output Indicators Output Indicator Data Sources # Police / officials investigated Direct deposit established # Non. Barakzai in government # Cases resolved by mobile dispute unit Shura/ government. link established Functional records system established Gov’t personnel records Bank & Gov’t financial records Interviews Assessments DSF Surveys Patrol Reports # IDPs relocated # IO radio spots 53 53

Overall Stability Is overall stability increasing or decreasing? – More support for the government / legit governance institutions? – Less support for malign actors? – Institutions and society increasingly capable of solving own problems / meeting own needs? Should reflect public perceptions – i. e. what people will do or say differently when things are stable, e. g. – Locals initiate long-term investments, e. g. planting orchards – Population returning to their homes – More population activity at night, e. g. road movement

Drawing Implications • Has each activity been completed? • Are external factors affecting impact and stability indicators? • Is overall stability improving? • What are the implications for future programming?

Fragile States Framework: Stability SECURITY Political Settlement Economic & Infrastructure Development Governance & Rule of Law Societal relationships