Institution of Engineers Pakistan Rawalpindi Islamabad Centre 17
Institution of Engineers Pakistan, Rawalpindi - Islamabad Centre, 17 th Dec, 2011 ENERGY MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS & CHALLENGES By Engr Arjumund A. Shaikh AKTS Consultants Group - World Bank Former Member Technical - NTC Board Ministry of IT & Telecom, akts@aktelekom. com, www. aktelekom. com Ph: 92 51 2652121, Cell: 92 300 8552729
EM Structure – Packages 17 -12 -2011 (arjumund) 1. Energy Scenario Ø Scenario & Perception on Energy crisis Ø Root causes of Crisis ( Linked Energy Saving solutions) 2. Energy Management (EM) – Energy Sustainability: ØSustainability Objective w. r. t Role of Building codes ØEnergy Savings Potential Identification: Major Sectors ØBuilding Management system(BMS) & Saving Measures ØEnergy Saving in Industry & Assessment Methodology 3. Energy efficient Technologies-Pakistan potential 4. Key Challenges in RET 5. Energy Solutions ( Energy Solutions short term & Long terms) 6. “Climate Change” Global impact on Energy? Climate Change 7. Panel Discussion
1. EXISTING SCENARIO 1. EXISTING & Our Perception about Cash Bleeding Energy Industry
INSTALLED CAPACITY
Sector wise Consumption (i) Energy Consumption: • • • Industrial Sector: Agricultural Sector : Commercial Sector: Government Sector: House hold : 29. 1% 14. 3% 5. 5 % 7. 4% 44. 2% (ii)Cost per Kwh in Rupees from: Terbala: 0. 71, Ghazi Broatha: 1. 16, Basha: 4. 95 Rental: 16+
Worldwide Oil Reserves-- World Energy Book • Peak of oil production expected: 2010 -2030. • World oil economic depletion: • BUT: Oil use is growing: 2035 -2084 18%
Energy Crisis Reasons & Root causes ØFinancial Constraints ØStrategic Planning and Technical Failures Ø Lack of Investments Solution through Energy Management
Cash bleeding Sector: FINANCAIL • • Excessive Line Losses/Y: RS 40 B Loss due to Slow Bill Recovery/Y: RS 80 B Late Payment Surcharge to IPP/M: RS 24 B Fuel adjustment Charge Loss/Y: RS 24 B Decrease supply of Gas to P. H/Y: RS 72 B Soaring Circular debt: RS 300 B PSO Arrears: RS 165 B No heed to recover outstanding: RS 300 B RS 1000 B
TECHNICAL: Poor Planning 1. Short Gas Supply to Power/ Industry : (Reported) 1. – Power sector ( IPP &Nuclear): 28% (against 43%) – Industry: 26% (against 39%) – Fertilizers: 14% – Domestic: 17% 2. GAS Short fall: • • • Unaccounted for Gas (UFG) Pipe Loss increased to 26%; Gas surcharge : not spent on Infra- Development; Foreign Investment declined: Decrease in supplies; 3. GAS Crisis in Textile Industry means: • Rs 8 B /year TAX decrease ; • Currency printing for Economy: increased inflation; • $14 B Export, $15 B Jobs at Stake-; (Industry priority)
TECHNICAL: cont -- • Resource exploitation- Poor Planning : • ENERGY POTENTIAL: (Nepra site) Ø Hydel Potential: 48, 000 MW( India 35%, Sri. Lanka 60%, Pak 16%) slide Ø Coal Potential : 20, 000 MW ( China 70%, India 56%, Pak 0. 11 %) slide Ø Nuclear Energy: 8, 8000 MW ( 690 MW) Ø Wind power Potential: 346, 000 MW ( 170 MW against 2850 MW by 2015) Ø Solar Power Potential: 2. 9 Million MW ( 80 MW against 1600 MW by 2015) Ø Non Implementation of Long Term Power Generation (Rental Power) Ø Low water levels , Dams De-silting, Water for irrigation, Stolen water etc Ø Mismanagement: (Nandipur & Chhichokimalian ) • Load Survey-Industry, A/C, T-wells Demand Forecast (14%) ; • High transmission & Electric Distribution Losses; • Dormant : Energy Conservation/Saving (Ration, Rotation); • Incompetency: Lacking decisions, Administrative Lethargy slide • Imbalance in Energy Mix (Priorities); slide
National Energy priorities-Indicators
2. ENERGY MANAGEMENT
Energy Management-Statement Various studies recommend that Energy sector be driven by two policy considerations: (i) Energy efficiency and (ii) good governance. This objective is met by improvements in energy efficiency and energy efficient technologies that minimize adverse impacts on the environment; • Definition: It is a Program to rationalize energy use, reduce consumption, cut energy costs & carbon emissions and ensure implementation; • Watt” saved is a “Watt” generated, Better, to much cheaper to save, than to generate a “Watt”; • This means to identifying the areas of wasteful use of Energy & taking steps to reduce the waste to a bare minimum.
Sustainable Industrial & Commercial Buildings Conservation Program
ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL- Enercon • Building: 30% • Industry : 25% • Agriculture: 20% • Transport: 30% On Average 26% • Achievable saving for Pakistan estimated through EE/EC: Over $ 3. 2 Billion / year (E. M. Program features )
Building Management System (BMS) • BMS is an energy efficient Web-based platform Building system to provide: • Integration: Geographically dispersed sites with one N/W • Intelligent integration: HVAC, Access Control, CCTV, Lighting, Energy Management subsystems etc • Acknowledge and review alarms with alarm processing and routing, e-mail paging etc • Serve platform for N/Ws control, monitoring, alarming, database and log management of all building functions • Serve cost-effective infrastructure for convergence with IT networks (Smart Building)
Building Codes- greatest potential Building codes cover Energy efficiency aspects of Buildings: • Heating, Ventilation, air-conditioning(HVAC) subsystem ü Lighting, Insulation, Glazing subsystem • • ü Power and distribution subsystem ü Pumping subsystems. Energy, Domestic Appliances & Security Standards Benefits of Energy Codes practices : ü Assists in Energy Saving/ Conservation, Lowers Energy Bills of users ü Helps Save investment in Power generation ü Extends equipment life and reduces Maintenance cost ü Carbon Credits Claims: due emission reduction from Conservation ü Beneficial to National Budget and Economy • Based on above considerations & abnormally high losses, the answer does not lie in increasing supply but from better Energy management- to deliver more at Lower cost ; • Buildings, Consumer behaviour and transport offer the greatest potential for energy efficiency (EE)
ENERGY MANAGEMENT – Energy Audit Ø Energy Management(EM) Policy: provides sense of direction to the Program and fixes Energy standards of Manufacturing, System performance and Environments; Ø Methodology: Conducting Energy performance Audit and Framework of Recommendations for energy efficiency ; Ø Monitoring: It is foundation On which EM is built by interviewing, Examining energy profile, usage, energy costs, M/c load, Data col Ø Training & Motivating Staff: Energy awareness and change in attitude and behavior. Education is Keys to the success to EM; Ø Benchmarking: Means to Fixing indicators of Energy, Buildings, Environment, Industry/Industry services, Domestic Appliances; Ø Reporting: Briefing, Recommendations, Implementation, Review; Ø Analysis: E. M is continuous process of improvement performance, targets to be regularly evaluated.
ENERGY CONSERVATION POTENTIAL IN PAKISTAN INDUSTRIAL SECTOR AGRICULTURE PAPER GLASS / CERAMIC COMMERCIAL BUILDING FOOD & BEVERAGE TEXTILE FERTILIZER CEMENT IRON / STEEL PETROCHEMICAL DOMESTIC PUBLIC UTILITY SERVICES SAVING POTENTIAL (%) 5 -15 10 10 -15 10 -25 10 -30 14 -30 16 -30 20 -40 23 35 10 -15 10
Typical Energy Saving Areas: in Industrial Sector • • • Energy Savings and Electric Motors, HVAC Controls Energy Savings and Compressed Air Systems Energy Savings and Steam Generation Boilers Energy Savings in Steam Distribution Systems Energy Savings and Furnaces Energy Savings Through Heat Recovery Energy Savings Through Cogeneration Industry Regulatory Measures, producing Energy Saving: – energy performance standards – building codes for the New Buildings – Regulatory environment conditions (CO 2 )
Problems identified-Energy Audit • Absence of Energy Management systems, • Lack of top management commitment, • Energy performance codes for Equipment- (compressors, cooling, towers, boilers, pumps and fans) • • • Lack of awareness about savings potential, Lack of data, and problems of benchmarking. Shortage of quality energy professionals. Training in Energy efficient Program initiatives Realization of Potential Savings
3. ENERGY EFFICIENT TECHNOLOGIES (RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGY)
The Need for Renewable Energy Projected Depletion of Current Fuels • OIL Reserves – 41 Years • Natural Gas – 40 Years • Coal – 164 Years
RENEWABLE ENERGY • • Solar Wind Mills Biogas Geothermal Wave Energy Biomass Bio fuel Hydropower
Solar PV –Status Potential of Renewable Energy: 10, 000 MW Solar installed (for lighting & water pumping ): 200 Ø Capacity varies bet: 200– 500 W. Ø Total PV generation capacity: 80 k. W. Ø Number of Solar water heaters: 100
AEDB RESOLVE
Wind Energy • 40% of the Wind resource is in UK • China Number One in Wind • Wind Power Potential: 50, 000 MW • Wind turbine capacity: 0. 5 -1. 5 kw Issues: Land, Storage, Maint, Availablity • Types of wind turbine: -Horizontal axis Turbines -Vertical Axis Turbines • Wind turbines installed : 1300 (for 430 Coastal houses)
AEDB & PCRET-Biogas (i) Number of Biogas cook stoves distributed by PCRET with annual financial savings of fuel wood worth of Rs. 86 million (US$ 1 million): 90, 000. (ii) Number of Biogas plants installed, for meeting domestic fuel needs of households: 1600 Plants Ø Number of Plants installed by AEDB : 1, 200 for domestic needs in the rural area of the Punjab province. Ø Capacity of bet 5 -15 cubic meters per day. Ø Annual biogas generation capacity: 2. 5 million m 3. Ø Foundation for Integrated Development Action (FIDA) & RSPN constructed : 2047 Ø Initiative for Rural and Sustainable Development (IRSD) & UNSP: 150
4. KEY CHALLANGES In Renewable Energy Technologies
CHALLENGES: RET (a) Well defined Renewable Energy policy (b) No technical and Quality standards (c) Cash Flow and funds Availability on target; (d) Non-operational One window : Site availability, administrative lethargy, delays in approvals; (e) Training needs, capacity building of Stakeholders ; (f) Community participation with overall responsibility supported by well equipped Workshop for O& M; (g) Absence of Regulatory Authority for RET (h) Pilot projects a model for launching a larger program; –RE Tariffs and Feed-in tariffs, – Tax, Carbon credits, Import duties Sales tax, – Creation of Renewable energy funds and R&D (I) Lack of political will and EE incentives-greatest barriers
5. ENERGY SOLUTIONS (SHORT & LONG TERMS)
Short Term solution/measures 1. 2. 3. 4. Capacity utilization by Overhauling & Capacity addition; Energy Mix Policy Focus: Coal, Hydel and Renewable Energy Encourage Investment: Law N order improvement; Energy Policy: Investment friendly/ Power supply Priority/ incentives to users/ low interest finances & Access to credit to farmers/ Competent Professionals/ Private sector Participation/ Awareness campaign etc; Professionals/ 5. Top most Priority: Renewable Energy Technologies 6. Energy efficiency /Saving Measures: Legislation needed Long Term solution/Measures 7. Coal reserve (33 Trillion tons) & Hydel Energy Exploitation 8. Rehabilitation of outdated Transmission & distribution 9. Infrastructure Augmentation/Upgrading and Development 10. Better Urban Planning and Deployment of Transport 11. Government’s creditability & Agencies facilitation
Costs of Climate Change: Impact on Energy World Bank Studies reveal that: • 40% of development aid investment is at risk from climate change • Humanitarian costs could rise by 200% by 2015 • “Weather disasters” could cost as much as a trillion dollars in a single year- by 2040 • Projects Review cost of climate change estimates to be between 5 -20% of global GDP;
CPD PROPSED PROGRAM- SERIES 2012 1. Engineering Project Management 2. Change Management and Organization Development 3. Project Human Resource Management 4. Total Quality Management 5. Project Scheduling Techniques 6. Environmental Impact Assessment 7. Interpersonal Communication Skills for Engineers 8. Disaster Management: Role of ICTs 9. Renewable Energy alternatives- Way forward 10. Renewable Energy Resources-Road to sustainable Growth 11. Meeting the Energy demands-Viable options 12. Promotion of Renewable Energy Technologies through Private sector participation 13. Energy Efficient solutions-Way forward 14. Overview of Bio-Energy
Energy Codes • Energy Codes Benefits: – Lower Energy Bills – Reduce Need for New – Environmental Benefits • Energy Codes include – Lighting – Insulation – Glazing – Heating and Cooling Equipment – Other Energy Efficiency Measures • Legal coverage & Stringent implementation measures with close cooperation of Civic bodies
Sustainable Energy-Objectives • Objectives : 1. Sufficient availability: On demand over the period, 2. Cost-efficient: Oil price index portrays increasing complexity in forecasting the future trend. Should not Lacks in security; 3. Environmentally friendly: largely affected by increase in temperature and green houses gases have cruel impact on future developments; 4. Complies with: International standards in energy efficiency , Technology and environment; 5. Compatibility: Working with a common hardware and Energy software platform.
Resource Efficient Facilities Building Comfort Fire safety Electronic Security Comfort and energy Efficiency Protecting people, assets and processes �� HVAC controls �� Valves, actuators �� Energy services and solutions Protecting life and Property �� Fire detection �� Extinguishing �� Evacuation �� Access control �� Video surveillance �� Intrusion detect protection �� Central monitoring
Energy Savings - Building • Envelope materials focus on developing improved insulation of walls and roofing materials; • Windows and Doors : contribute significantly to the whole building design forming heating and air conditioning loads; • Ventilation in Buildings; Improving air efficiency and air flow ducts; • Solid-state lighting (SSL- LEDs & Organic OLEDs) technology, having potential to cut lighting energy usage, contributing significantly to climate change solutions.
BIOMASS ENERGY • Biomass: Consists of the organic material that makes up living organisms • Biomass Energy: From plant and animal matter, such as charcoal, wood, manure, crops. These can be burned to generate heat or electricity • Biomass Fuels: some biomass can be converted into fuels: – Ethanol: from fermentation (corn) -can be added to gasoline and used in “Flex-Fuel” cars – Biodiesel: from vegetable oil, grease, animal fatmixed with ethanol, used in diesel engines
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