Input data for models of MSCE Ilia Ilyin

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Input data for models of MSC-E Ilia Ilyin EMEP/MSC-E 6 th TFMM Meeting, Zagreb,

Input data for models of MSC-E Ilia Ilyin EMEP/MSC-E 6 th TFMM Meeting, Zagreb, April 2005 1 EMEP/MSC-E

MSCE-HM&POP model Pollutant properties Geophysical data Emissions Meteorological data MSCEHM/POP Model output EMEP/MSC-E 6

MSCE-HM&POP model Pollutant properties Geophysical data Emissions Meteorological data MSCEHM/POP Model output EMEP/MSC-E 6 th 2 TFMM Meeting, Zagreb, April 2005

Geophysical data - Land-use (18 categories) - Leaf Area Index - Organic content of

Geophysical data - Land-use (18 categories) - Leaf Area Index - Organic content of soil - Chemical reactants - Topography - etc …. EMEP/MSC-E 6 th 3 TFMM Meeting, Zagreb, April 2005

Emission data Within EMEP 44 countries Available official data: - National totals: 11 -

Emission data Within EMEP 44 countries Available official data: - National totals: 11 - 35 countries - Spatial distribution: 18 countries (HMs), 10 (POPs) - Emission sector data: 23 countries - Seasonal variability: no official data - Uncertainty analysis: Denmark only Official data are incomplete Expert estimates are used extensively Natural emission, re-emission of HMs: the data are prepared by MSC-E EMEP/MSC-E 6 th 4 TFMM Meeting, Zagreb, April 2005

Meteorological data üMeteorological preprocessor üMeteorological variability üReference meteorology EMEP/MSC-E 6 th 5 TFMM Meeting,

Meteorological data üMeteorological preprocessor üMeteorological variability üReference meteorology EMEP/MSC-E 6 th 5 TFMM Meeting, Zagreb, April 2005

Meteorological data - For hemispheric model: SDA (System of Diagnosis of low Atmosphere) ,

Meteorological data - For hemispheric model: SDA (System of Diagnosis of low Atmosphere) , Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia - For regional version of the model: MM 5 system (Pennsylvania State University/NCAR Community model) EMEP/MSC-E 6 th 6 TFMM Meeting, Zagreb, April 2005

Meteorological pre-processor: MM 5 (version 3) MM 5 features: • Support various map projections,

Meteorological pre-processor: MM 5 (version 3) MM 5 features: • Support various map projections, including stereographic one • Support various data sets, e. g. re-analysis of PSU/NCAR mesoscale model NCEP/DOE or ECMWF • Parameterizations selected by user • Works reasonably fast • Available nesting • World-wide spread and tested EMEP/MSC-E 6 th 7 TFMM Meeting, Zagreb, April 2005

MM 5 adaptation for EMEP tasks § Vertical structure: Like in transport model §

MM 5 adaptation for EMEP tasks § Vertical structure: Like in transport model § Horizontal structure: EMEP grid + surrounding 6 gridcells § 3 D precipitations are introduced by MSC-E § NCEP/DOE Reanalysis data EMEP domain EMEP/MSC-E MM 5 domain 6 th 8 TFMM Meeting, Zagreb, April 2005

Parameters derived form MM 5 (1990 - 2002) Temporal resolution: 6 hours - Horizontal

Parameters derived form MM 5 (1990 - 2002) Temporal resolution: 6 hours - Horizontal wind components Surface pressure Air temperature Water vapour mixing ratio Liquid water mixing ratio Ice mixing ratio Convective precipitation Large-scale precipitation Turbulent coefficient Surface temperature Monin-Obukhov length scale Friction velocity Snow cover height EMEP/MSC-E 6 th 9 TFMM Meeting, Zagreb, April 2005

Specific tasks (effect of meteo variability is important): - Long-term pollution trends in response

Specific tasks (effect of meteo variability is important): - Long-term pollution trends in response to emission reduction - Future emission projections - Critical loads approach and risk assessment EMEP/MSC-E 6 th 10 TFMM Meeting, Zagreb, April 2005

Effects of meteorological variability on modelling results - Pb and Hg - 1990 –

Effects of meteorological variability on modelling results - Pb and Hg - 1990 – 2002 - Constant emission - Concentrations in air, in precip, total depositions Relative deviation: Yi, j - model output parameter EMEP/MSC-E 6 th 11 TFMM Meeting, Zagreb, April 2005

Relative deviations (air concentrations, Pb) Lead Map of relative deviation EMEP/MSC-E 6 th 12

Relative deviations (air concentrations, Pb) Lead Map of relative deviation EMEP/MSC-E 6 th 12 TFMM Meeting, Zagreb, April 2005

Model output uncertainty caused by meteorological variability (Pb) MSRE - Mean-Square Relative Error bars:

Model output uncertainty caused by meteorological variability (Pb) MSRE - Mean-Square Relative Error bars: range (90% interval) MSRE = 10 - 45% for Pb 6 th 13 TFMM Meeting, Zagreb, April 2005

Relative deviations (TGM air concentrations) TGM Map of relative deviation EMEP/MSC-E 6 th 14

Relative deviations (TGM air concentrations) TGM Map of relative deviation EMEP/MSC-E 6 th 14 TFMM Meeting, Zagreb, April 2005

Model output uncertainty caused by meteorological variability (Hg) Error bars: range (90% interval) MSRE

Model output uncertainty caused by meteorological variability (Hg) Error bars: range (90% interval) MSRE = 3 - 10% (TGM) = 10 - 40% (Conc. in precip, total depositions) 6 th 15 TFMM Meeting, Zagreb, April 2005

How can we minimize the effects of meteorological variability? 2 possible solutions: a) Long-term

How can we minimize the effects of meteorological variability? 2 possible solutions: a) Long-term model runs with constant annual emission and further averaging b) Meaningful selection of “reference” year Reference year: A year, which computed model output parameters most resemble those averaged over long period of time EMEP/MSC-E 6 th 16 TFMM Meeting, Zagreb, April 2005

Selection of the reference year Parameters analyzed (1990 - 2002): - Air concentrations -

Selection of the reference year Parameters analyzed (1990 - 2002): - Air concentrations - Concentrations in precipitation - Total depositions - Precipitation annual sums Key parameters (WGE request): - Lead total depositions - Mercury concentrations in precipitation EMEP/MSC-E 6 th 17 TFMM Meeting, Zagreb, April 2005

Statistical criteria of the selection: Normalized Mean Square Error Di, j - annual depositions

Statistical criteria of the selection: Normalized Mean Square Error Di, j - annual depositions in (i, j) point Dmean, i, j - multi-annual mean deposition in (i, j) point - spatial mean Dmean - spatial mean D Fractional Bias Fractional Standard Deviation Correlation Coefficient Liner regression coefficients EMEP/MSC-E 6 th 18 TFMM Meeting, Zagreb, April 2005

Normalized Mean-Square Error, (Pb, total depositions) The lowest NMSE in 1990 EMEP/MSC-E 6 th

Normalized Mean-Square Error, (Pb, total depositions) The lowest NMSE in 1990 EMEP/MSC-E 6 th 19 TFMM Meeting, Zagreb, April 2005

Difference between mean deposition field of Pb and deposition in reference year (1990) Relative

Difference between mean deposition field of Pb and deposition in reference year (1990) Relative deviation = (D 1990 - Dmean)/Dmean x 100% Relative deviation: ± 20% over 90% of area EMEP/MSC-E 6 th 20 TFMM Meeting, Zagreb, April 2005

Normalized Mean-Square Error, (Hg, concentrations in precipitation) EMEP/MSC-E 6 th 21 TFMM Meeting, Zagreb,

Normalized Mean-Square Error, (Hg, concentrations in precipitation) EMEP/MSC-E 6 th 21 TFMM Meeting, Zagreb, April 2005

Conclusions Emission • Official data on HMs and POPs emissions are incomplete. To fill

Conclusions Emission • Official data on HMs and POPs emissions are incomplete. To fill the gaps in the data, expert estimates are used Meteorology • Variability of concentrations and depositions of aerosol species ranges from 10 to 45 % due to meteorological variability • Variability of TGM concentrations ranges from 3 to 10%, and of concentrations in precipitation and depositions of Hg from 10 to 40% due to meteorological variability. • 1990 can be chosen as reference year basing on data for 1990 – 2002. Relative deviation of depositions in 1990 from multi-annual mean depositions <20% EMEP/MSC-E 6 th 22 TFMM Meeting, Zagreb, April 2005

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Criteria to select the reference year Normalized Mean Square Error Pi, j - depositions

Criteria to select the reference year Normalized Mean Square Error Pi, j - depositions in point (i, j) in a separate year Oi, j - depositions in point (i, j) averaged over 1990– 2002 - spatially averaged P - spatially averaged O N - number of grid cells 24

Criteria to select the reference year(2) Fractional Bias Fractional Standard Deviation σO, σP -

Criteria to select the reference year(2) Fractional Bias Fractional Standard Deviation σO, σP - standard deviations Correlation Coefficient Liner regression coefficients 25

Natural emission and re-emission of Pb and Cd Land Sea Pb, g/km 2/y 220

Natural emission and re-emission of Pb and Cd Land Sea Pb, g/km 2/y 220 160 Cd, g/km 2/y 12 8 Snow/ice surfaces – zero emission 26