Inland Empire Prosperity John Husing Ph D Economics

Inland Empire Prosperity. . . John Husing, Ph. D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP

After Losing 8. 71 Million Jobs … Now At A Record Level of Jobs U. S. Jobs Long Slow Growth - Not Over-Heating

Value of the Dollar: Helps Imports & Hurts Exports 100. 0 2012 -2016 22. 1%

California Job Gains/Losses 2007 15, 844, 325 2016 16, 918, 587 Up 1, 074, 272 6. 8% Up Recovery 2, 253, 330 Great Recession -1, 179, 058

Why Pass Area Is Changing: “Dirt Theory” 1. Affordable Housing & Population Serving Jobs 2. Industrial Projects & Blue Collar Jobs I-15 Freeway 3. Expensive Housing, Skilled Workers & High Paying Jobs 7

October 1, 2016 Huge housing project approved that could 'forever change' Banning Majority of split City Council votes in favor or Rancho San Gorgonio, a proposed 831 -acre, 3, 385 -home, master-planned community

Inland Empire Population 2010 2016 Change Growth Greater 29, 603 Than 30, 834 25 of 50 States Banning 1, 231 4. 2% Beaumont 36, 877 45, 118 8, 241 22. 3% Calimesa 7, 879 8, 289 410 5. 2% 2010 -2016 Growth: 6. 2%

Inland Empire Economy Gaining Strength!

Job Quality

Inland Empire Growth was the 2 nd Largest Absolute Job Gain in California in 2015!

Unemployment Rates

The Issue: Poverty Banning Beaumont Calimesa 32. 5% 15. 4% 11. 5% 8. 3% 18. 7% 10. 1%

Median Household Income Banning $39, 556 Beaumont Calimesa $66, 775 $42, 392 Riverside Co. $58, 292

Diversity Challenge Banning Beaumont Calimesa 38. 8% 47. 5% 7. 6% 4. 2% 45. 7% 6. 8% 37. 7% 75. 8% 0. 3% 0. 9% 19. 8%

Gold Mine Theory Secondary Tier Primary Tier

Educational Challenge For Adults & Their Children Banning Beaumont Calimesa 53. 0% 36. 3% 47. 5%

Health Care

Health Care Jobs: Continuous Growth 2011 -2016 11% of Job Growth Median Pay $54, 261

Inland Empire Underserved by Health Care Workers 26. 6% More People Per Health Care Worker in 2015

Sophisticated Warehousing Operations

Port Container Volumes On Pace For Import Record

Fulfillment Warehousing

E-Commerce Growth Rates Year Over Year by Quarter 1. 1% 8. 1%

Net Industrial Space Absorption 21. 5 million

Industrial Overwhelmingly In The Inland Empire

Industrial Vacancy Rate 3. 7%

Logistics Powerful Job Growth 2011 -2016 23% of New Jobs Median Pay $45, 677

PM 2. 5: Diesel Pollution -91. 4%

Manufacturing: Should Be A Major Growth Source

California Manufacturing Job Growth Just 5. 4% of U. S. Growth

Inland Empire Manufacturing Jobs 2011 -2016 5% of Job Growth Median Pay $49, 567

Construction: Finally Coming Back

Home Price Trends Banning $230, 000 $302, 000 -23. 8% Beaumont Calimesa $290, 000 $148, 750 $369, 000 $370, 000 -21. 4% -59. 8% -21. 7% 91. 3%

Long Term Competitive Price Advantage Still Exists Banning Beaumont Calimesa $230, 000 $300, 444 $148, 750

Home Sales Volume No Breakout Banning Beaumont 159 -1. 5% 349 -0. 6% Calimesa 32 -33. 0% +0. 7%

Domestic In-Migration: Stalled -10, 241 8 Years -1, 280 per year

Construction Jobs: Growth Gaining 2011 -2016 13% of Job Growth Median Pay $51, 051

Assessed Valuation: July 1, 2016 Assessed Value Rank of 52 2015 -2016 Per Capita Rank of 52 Growth Banning $1, 961, 000 40 4. 2% $66, 561 39 Beaumont $3, 915, 000 32 7. 5% $86, 781 21 Calimesa $743, 000 50 7. 9% $89, 598 20 5. 1% $105, 719 Riverside Co.

High Paying Sectors Jack Dangermond Ahmad Adel Al-Khatib

BA or Higher BA+ AA+ Banning 15. 8% 23. 1% Beaumont Calimesa 25. 4% 14. 8% 34. 5% 25. 4%

Higher End Homes Draw Well Educated Workers UPLAND $497, 455 $504, 397 Claremont $594, 476 Loma Linda $355, 000 $353, 820 $449, 386 $599, 310 EASTVALE $465, 532 $450, 500 CORONA $441, 965 $376, 303 TEMECULA $405, 538

Migration of AA or Higher Redlands-Loma Linda Western Inland Empire Temecula-Murrieta

Professionals, Mgmt. , Utilities, Mining Slowly Coming Back 2011 -2015 3. 8% of Growth Median Pay $65, 453

Office Vacancy Rate 14. 2%

Low Paying Job Growth Retail, Consumer & Bus. Services, Hotel, Eat & Drink Amusement, Agriculture, Employment Agency 2011 -2016 40% of Job Growth Median Pay $28, 927

Taxable Sales: 2015 Rank of 52 Growth Per Capita Rank of 52 Banning $183, 000 42 0. 6% $6, 228 43 Beaumont $412, 000 35 11. 1% $9, 286 32 Calimesa $63, 000 50 -1. 6% $7, 731 37 3. 1% $14, 222 Riverside Co.

Federal, State, Local Government 2011 -2016 -3% of Job Growth Median Pay $57, 984

Looking Ahead. . . • Inland Empire Is a Job Engine Again • Construction Coming Back … Moving Into Pass Area • Manufacturing Will Be Under Pressure • Logistics Will Remain Strong … Moving Towards Pass Area • Health Care Expanding … Best Odds For High Paying Jobs • Office Growth An Issue Given E-Commerce Changes • Lower Paying Jobs Smaller Share Than Most Areas • Higher Paying Jobs Smaller Share Than Most Areas • Labor Availability May Become An Issue

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