Industrial Revolution England Industrial Revolution 1600 1700 1800

Industrial Revolution England Industrial Revolution 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Japan Industrialization

Railways: Operation Kilometers

No. of automobile registered U. S. A. 1850 1900 1950 2000 Japan Industrialization

Penetration ratios of home appliances in Japan, 1960 -2010 % 3 Cs

ICT Indicators of the US Long-term perspective

ICT Indicators of Japan Long-term perspective

Logistic Curves K Y = -------1 + b e-cx K=100, b=1 c=2 c=5 c=10

Logistic Curve - how to use it? A case of mobile-phone population the number of mobile subscribers

step-1 conversion to the penetration ratio Y number of subscribers Y = ---------------population

step-2 preparation for linear regression analysis Y= K 1 + b e-CX or K/Y – 1 = b e-CX log (K/Y – 1) = log (b e-CX) log (K/Y – 1) = log b – C X if we set Z = log (K/Y – 1) and B = log b then B, C will be estimated by regression analysis Z=B-CX

step-3 assume K and calculate Z = log (K/Y-1)

step-4 compare the regression 2 results, choose the highest R

A verification experiment

Advertising channels and their cost IP網 網 放送 視聴者数 10 102 103 104 105 106 107 108

Advertising expenditure by channel Japan, 1985 -2008 source: Dentsu, NIHON NO KOUKOKUHI (Ad Expenditure of Japan)

Distribution volumes of magazines in Japan

Distribution volumes of magazines in Japan