Indicator of Sentiment and Indicator in Economic Confidence
- Slides: 19
Indicator of Sentiment and Indicator in Economic Confidence Services Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic Dagmar Blahova, Edita Holickova
Development ¨ Full harmonisation since 1993 in industry, construction and retail trade ¨ Services have been carried out since 2002 ¨ Business surveys are performed since 1983 2
Current state Indicator of Economic Sentiment ¨ calculated on a monthly base since 1997 ¨ calculated as weighted arithmetic mean of 4 components – confidence indicators in industry, construction, retail trade and consumers 3
IES and its components Current state IES = a*ICI + b*BCI +c*RCI +d*CCI a, b, c, d = weights ICI = 40 % Confidence Indicator in Industry BCI = 20 % CI in Construction RCI = 20 % CI in Retail trade CCI = 20 % Consumer CI 4
IES including Services Experimental calculations IES = a*ICI + b*BCI +c*RCI +d*SCI + e*CCI a, b, c, d, e = weights ICI BCI RCI SCI CCI = = = 40 % Confidence Indicator in Industry 5 % CI in Construction 5 % CI in Retail trade 30 % CI in Services 20 % Consumer CI 5
Comparison of results 6
Comparison of results 7
Comparison of results 8
Comparison of results 9
IES (without SCI) and GDP 10
IES (incl. SCI) and GDP 11
Comparison of ICI and GDP 12
Comparison of BCI and GDP 13
Comparison of RCI and GDP 14
Comparison of CCI and GDP 15
Comparison of SCI and GDP 16
Conclusions ¨ currently, results of calculations by previous methodology are officially released ¨ services are not included into composite Indicator of Economic Sentiment ¨ in this practice we will still continue in 2006 as well ¨ simultaneously we will calculate experimentally index by new methodology under providing of following measures 17
The next measures ¨ ¨ ¨ to analyze of sample and weighted system in calculation of Confidence Indicator in Services to lengthen time series of CI in Services by retrospective re-calculations (econometric models) after these steps to realize retrospective recalculations of time series of IES to continue on calculations of IES by new methodology to inform economic public area on changes in calculations to release methodology of a new way in calculation together with first publication 18
IES and Confidence Indicators in Slovakia Thank you for your attention 19
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