Indicator of Sentiment and Indicator in Economic Confidence

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Indicator of Sentiment and Indicator in Economic Confidence Services Statistical Office of the Slovak

Indicator of Sentiment and Indicator in Economic Confidence Services Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic Dagmar Blahova, Edita Holickova

Development ¨ Full harmonisation since 1993 in industry, construction and retail trade ¨ Services

Development ¨ Full harmonisation since 1993 in industry, construction and retail trade ¨ Services have been carried out since 2002 ¨ Business surveys are performed since 1983 2

Current state Indicator of Economic Sentiment ¨ calculated on a monthly base since 1997

Current state Indicator of Economic Sentiment ¨ calculated on a monthly base since 1997 ¨ calculated as weighted arithmetic mean of 4 components – confidence indicators in industry, construction, retail trade and consumers 3

IES and its components Current state IES = a*ICI + b*BCI +c*RCI +d*CCI a,

IES and its components Current state IES = a*ICI + b*BCI +c*RCI +d*CCI a, b, c, d = weights ICI = 40 % Confidence Indicator in Industry BCI = 20 % CI in Construction RCI = 20 % CI in Retail trade CCI = 20 % Consumer CI 4

IES including Services Experimental calculations IES = a*ICI + b*BCI +c*RCI +d*SCI + e*CCI

IES including Services Experimental calculations IES = a*ICI + b*BCI +c*RCI +d*SCI + e*CCI a, b, c, d, e = weights ICI BCI RCI SCI CCI = = = 40 % Confidence Indicator in Industry 5 % CI in Construction 5 % CI in Retail trade 30 % CI in Services 20 % Consumer CI 5

Comparison of results 6

Comparison of results 6

Comparison of results 7

Comparison of results 7

Comparison of results 8

Comparison of results 8

Comparison of results 9

Comparison of results 9

IES (without SCI) and GDP 10

IES (without SCI) and GDP 10

IES (incl. SCI) and GDP 11

IES (incl. SCI) and GDP 11

Comparison of ICI and GDP 12

Comparison of ICI and GDP 12

Comparison of BCI and GDP 13

Comparison of BCI and GDP 13

Comparison of RCI and GDP 14

Comparison of RCI and GDP 14

Comparison of CCI and GDP 15

Comparison of CCI and GDP 15

Comparison of SCI and GDP 16

Comparison of SCI and GDP 16

Conclusions ¨ currently, results of calculations by previous methodology are officially released ¨ services

Conclusions ¨ currently, results of calculations by previous methodology are officially released ¨ services are not included into composite Indicator of Economic Sentiment ¨ in this practice we will still continue in 2006 as well ¨ simultaneously we will calculate experimentally index by new methodology under providing of following measures 17

The next measures ¨ ¨ ¨ to analyze of sample and weighted system in

The next measures ¨ ¨ ¨ to analyze of sample and weighted system in calculation of Confidence Indicator in Services to lengthen time series of CI in Services by retrospective re-calculations (econometric models) after these steps to realize retrospective recalculations of time series of IES to continue on calculations of IES by new methodology to inform economic public area on changes in calculations to release methodology of a new way in calculation together with first publication 18

IES and Confidence Indicators in Slovakia Thank you for your attention 19

IES and Confidence Indicators in Slovakia Thank you for your attention 19