Indian IceCream Industry and Supply Chain Innovation at

Indian Ice-Cream Industry and Supply Chain Innovation at Geddy’s Team Name: Group 9 1 st. Round Room RAWLS 3093 Xiang Li Della Mihardja Xiaoyang Chen Minqian. Guo

Contents Key Features Focus (Xiang Li) Planning GSCMI 2013 Case Competition Data Analysis Recommen dation 2

Key Features and Challenges (Xiang Li) Market Features Product Features Challenges 1. High fixed cost 1. High quality structure ingredients required High Cost 1. Different Flavors Materials Availability 1. Customer Preference 1. Seasonality 2. Refrigeration required Demand Forecasting 1. Local competitors 2. FDI Approval - Gain Market Share Key Features Focus Planning GSCMI 2013 Case Competition Data Analysis Recommendation 3

Focus (Della Mihardja) § Why Market Expansion as short-term focus? § Gain market share § Enhance brand name § Why Cost Efficiency as long-term focus? § Economies of Scale § Transportation § Production Efficiency § Eliminating waste Key Features Focus Planning GSCMI 2013 Case Competition Data Analysis Recommendation 4

Demand Shaping (Xiaoyang. Chen) Total Demand Model 450. 00 410. 80 400. 00 350. 00 300. 00 250. 00 200. 00 150. 00 100. 00 50. 00 Difference: 202. 24 21, 208. 56 38, 208. 56 Duration: 17 weeks 0. 00 1 3 5 7 91113151719212325272931333537394143454749515355 Total Demand Key Features Demand 1 Focus Planning GSCMI 2013 Case Competition Data Analysis Recommendation 5

Demand Shaping (Xiaoyang. Chen) Shaped Demand Model 450. 00 400. 00 350. 00 300. 00 250. 00 Shrink Difference 200. 00 Expand Duration 150. 00 100. 00 50. 00 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 Demand 1 Demand 2 • Promotion (Christmas , New Year. . ) GSCMI 2013 Case Competition 6

Capacity Planning (Xiaoyang. Chen) Demand Forecasting: § Exponential Smoothing with Trend Aggregate Planning: § Chase Strategy § Different planning for different raw materials Low Season § Increase Sales Peak Season § Increase machines capacity by technology § Reduce bottlenecks § Use other plants GSCMI 2013 Case Competition 7

Weekly Profit vs. De-seasonalize. Weekly Profit (Minqian. Guo) 1200. 0 Target Service Level Policy 1100. 0 1000. 0 900. 0 800. 0 Target Level for Top Margin Policy 700. 0 600. 0 500. 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 avg weekly profit Key Features 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 De-seasonalized weekly profit Focus Planning GSCMI 2013 Case Competition Data Analysis Recommendation 8

1. 6 Seasonal Factor of Demand 110 1. 4 100 1. 2 90 1. 0 80 0. 8 Average Temperature (F) 70 0. 6 60 0. 4 50 0. 2 40 0. 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Seasonal Facotor of the Demand Average Temperature of the Week 120 Week 500 Seasonal Factor of Demand Weekly Profit (100 Rupee) 1100 450 400 900 350 Average Temperature (F) 700 300 Total Weekly Sales 500 250 300 200 0 Key Features Total Weekly Sales Weekly Profit (100 Rupee) 1300 10 20 Focus 30 Week 40 Planning GSCMI 2013 Case Competition 50 60 Data Analysis Recommendation 9

Flavor Sales vs. Total Sales (Minqian. Guo) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 TV Key Features 19 21 23 BBS Focus 25 27 LL 29 31 BT 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 Total Sales Planning GSCMI 2013 Case Competition Data Analysis Recommendation 10 55

Insight to BT (Minqian. Guo) 1200. 00 1000. 00 800. 00 BT average demand 600. 00 Weekly Profit 400. 00 BT sales 200. 00 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 Key Features Focus Planning GSCMI 2013 Case Competition Data Analysis Recommendation 11

Top 3 Margin Policy (Minqian. Guo) Profit = Margin * Demand Key Features Focus Planning GSCMI 2013 Case Competition Data Analysis Recommendation 12

Flavor Demand (Minqian. Guo) 140. 00 120. 00 TV 100. 00 BBS 80. 00 LL 60. 00 BT 40. 00 20. 00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152535455 • LL has a low demand compared to others Key Features Focus Planning GSCMI 2013 Case Competition Data Analysis Recommendation 13

Short Term Recommendation (Della Mihardja) § Modify Target Level for Top Margin Policy § 90% in-stock level for top three most favorite flavors § Supplier policy § Contract (bulk-buying) § Product Customization § Implement Just Sundaes’ format to Go Geddy’s Retail outlet § Demand Forecasting Tool § Exponential Smoothing with Trend Key Features Focus Planning GSCMI 2013 Case Competition Data Analysis Recommendation 14

Long Term Recommendation (Della Mihardja) § Add more vendor § Price-setting § Different price for different flavors § Procurement § Disintermediation (eliminate agent) § Spare more working capital in USD § Subsidiary in free-port country § Transportation § Eliminate third-party logistics Key Features Focus Planning GSCMI 2013 Case Competition Data Analysis Recommendation 15

THANK YOU GSCMI 2013 Case Competition 16