INDIA Hunger Poverty and Vulnerability during Fast Pace

INDIA: Hunger, Poverty and Vulnerability during Fast Pace of Economic Growth Abusaleh Shariff National Council of Applied Economic Research New Delhi - 110 002 E-mail: ashariff@ncaer. org Taking Action for the World’s Poor and Hungry People Beijing, China. October 17 -19, 2007

Macro-National Perspective Essential v. Towards Faster and More Inclusive Growth – A New Vision ! v Sectoral Growth – sectors of production and distribution – fast pace of growth in Services, followed by Industry. Agriculture is cause of worry! Labour mobility from inefficient to efficient sectors is most difficult ! 9/18/2020 2

Macro-National Perspective 11 th Plan v Development programmes and projects must link themselves with the macro-national objectives v 9 % GDP GR /32 % Savings Rate / 35% Investment v Bharat Nirman – Infrastructure/Information/water v Nat. Rural Employment Guarantee v JN-Urban Renewal Mission v Inclusive Development –ICDS/Nat. Rural Health Mission /Sanitation v A set of Monitorable Targets 9/18/2020 3

Structure of Economy, Labour Force and Relative Productivity (RP) changes 9/18/2020 4

Macro-Regional Growth v Regional development and political economy within the multi-party coalition frame is important. v Equity, inclusiveness and people’s participation v Balance between management of the programmes and adhoc political interferences. 9/18/2020 5

Balanced Regional/State level Development v Factors that prevents growth from reaching specific regions and sectors for example where the poor are concentrated – UP, Bihar, Orissa etc – agriculture, informal self-employed, casual labourers etc. v To ensure that growth strategies translate into poverty reduction, there is a need to further strengthen the understanding as to how inter-sectoral mobility can be enhanced. 9/18/2020 6

Vulnerability and Hunger 9/18/2020 7

…. Vulnerability and Hunger 9/18/2020 8

Pro-Poor & Equitious Growth v National objective as well as a dominant part of the MDGs – global concern as well. v India hosts the largest number of poor compared to any country in the world. 300 million – about a quarter of all Indians. v Programme personnel and Evaluators need to strengthen the understanding of what keeps the poor from participating in the growth process. 9/18/2020 9

Rural – Urban Linkages v How can the urban-rural linkages and inter-sectoral mobility can be enhanced within the growing economy context? v The growth story of India is highly urban biased! v Strengthening urban-rural linkages and strategies to improve rural productivity require more attention. Growth causes poverty reduction more effectively when it occurs in sectors and regions where most of the poor work for living– for example, agriculture sector in India. 9/18/2020 10

Gender Equity v Given the uniqueness of Indian patriarchy which favours absolute control of resources by men, it is important to ensure programme focus on Women. The extension of this approach is to cover children who have a limited voice in programmes. v All development parameters which have individualistic relevance are gender blind. Gender Sensitivity essential in education, health, nutrition, employment generation and social safety net programmes. v Child focus is necessary as they are future Human Capital and Resource. 9/18/2020 11

Social-Group Identity and Equity v India is unique with respect to its spectacular plurality in terms of religious and caste identities. Such identities are so revealing and upfront that these very identities must be used to ensure equity in programme and project access. v Focus on Dalits, Adivasis and Minority Muslims is essential. v Recent fast economic growth should exhibit better policy management so as to champion policies for social inclusion. v There is ample evidence across the world that high growth can be achieved alongside policies for social inclusion. 9/18/2020 12

Poverty and Vulnerability 9/18/2020 13

Head Count Ratio (HCR) and Growth of GDP Numbers on top of the bar indicate number of poor in million Source: 9/18/2020 Different NSSO Rounds and 61 st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey 365 days reference period 14

Hunger 9/18/2020 15

Malnutrition 9/18/2020 16

Change in Food Basket v Shift Away from Cereal Consumption ã The food habits even among the poorer households have changed over years ã This is more due to improvements in food supply especially after mid 1970 since the introduction of Green Revolution – HYV and chemical fertilizers v Increase in Consumption of Fruit, Vegetables, meat and fish products 9/18/2020 17

Incidence of Poverty (HCRs) by State - 2004 -05 ALL INDIA Based on 30 days reference period Source: 9/18/2020 NSSO 61 st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey. 18

Incidence of Poverty (HCRs) by State - 2004 -05 RURAL Based on 30 days reference period 9/18/2020 Source: NSSO 61 st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey 19

Incidence of Poverty (HCRs) by State - 2004 -05 URBAN Based on 30 days reference period Source: 9/18/2020 NSSO 61 st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey 20

Incidence of Poverty (HCRs) by Source of Household Income - 2004 -05 Based on 30 days reference period Source: 9/18/2020 NSSO 61 st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey 21

Workforce Participation Rate (major time criterion) for 15 -64 years of age, 2004 -05 9/18/2020 22

Distribution of Workforce Aged 15 -64 according to Nature of Individual’s work 9/18/2020 23

Average Number of Days Worked for 15 -64 Years old, All India 9/18/2020 24

Average Daily Wage of Agri. and Non-Agri. Laborers, aged 15 -64 years, All India 9/18/2020 25

Average Daily Wage of Agricultural and Non-agricultural Laborers aged 15 -64, Rural-Urban Group 9/18/2020 26

Average No. of Agri. Wage Days among 15 -64 Year old by State 9/18/2020 27

Average No. of Non-Agri. Wage Days among 15 -64 Year old by State 9/18/2020 28

Average Monthly Salary for Aged 15 -64 who Reported Salary as Source of Income, All India 9/18/2020 29

Average Monthly Salary for Aged 15 -64 who Reported Salary as Source of Income, Total 9/18/2020 30

Incidence of Poverty (HCRs) - 2004 -05 by Household Source of Income and Social Group Based on 30 days reference period Source: 9/18/2020 NSSO 61 st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey 31

Incidence of Poverty (HCRs) by State among the Agriculture Labour in India - 2004 -05 Based on 30 days reference period Source: 9/18/2020 NSSO 61 st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey 32

Incidence of Poverty (HCRs) - 2004 -05 among Casual Labour in India Based on 30 days reference period Source: 9/18/2020 NSSO 61 st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey 33

Incidence of Poverty (HCRs) - 2004 -05 Levels of Education and Place of Residence Based on 30 days reference period Source: 9/18/2020 NSSO 61 st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey 34

Incidence of Poverty (HCRs) - 2004 -05 by Levels of Education and Social Groups Based on 30 days reference period Source: 9/18/2020 NSSO 61 st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey 35

MPCE Class distributions by SRCs - 2004 -05 9/18/2020 36

MPCE according to Urban Size Class - 1999 -00 Based on 365 days reference period Source: 9/18/2020 NSSO 61 st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey 37

Proportion of Population Covered through the Issuance of Ration Cards by Poverty Status - 2004 -05 Based on 30 days reference period Source: 9/18/2020 NSSO 61 st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey 38

The Poor not Covered by the Issuance of Ration Card by State - 2004 -05 Based on 30 days reference period Source: 9/18/2020 NSSO 61 st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey 39

The Non-poor Covered by the Issuance of Ration Card by State - 2004 -05 Based on 30 days reference period Source: 9/18/2020 NSSO 61 st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey 40

Thank You 9/18/2020 41