Independents vs Partisans Do political independents really exist

Independents vs. Partisans Do political independents really exist?

Independents vs. Partisans • Party ID results from early socialization • But, are parties less relevent today? – fewer say they are D or R – seen as dealignment of party system

Independents • Why care? – they determine result of many elections – votes most moveable – is there dealignment, room for third party? • Two views – less informed, less interested • swayed by TV ads, personality, etc. – well informed “critical citizens” • don’t need party cue anymore

Independents • A behavioral phenomena • A socially desirable survey response

Partisans vs. Independents • Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Dem. , Rep. , or independent – [If D or r]: Would you call yourself a strong [D or R]? – [If Ind]: Would you say you think of yourself as closer to the Ds or Rs

Measurement • What are we measuring here? – 3 qs are used to make “ 7 point scale” of PID • • Strong R Weak R Ind, leans R Ind (pure) Ind, leans D Weak D Strong D said “R” and strong said “R” and weak said “Ind” and lean R said “Ind” and don’t lean said “Ind” and lean D said “D” and weak said “D” and strong

Measurement • How much weigh should we put in the first Q? – “Generally speaking. . . ? ” • How much weight should we put into how people respond to the follow up Qs? – “would you say you think of yourself as closer. . . ”

Partisans vs. Independents • If we use “closer”, there are few independent • As of 2004: – – – – Strong D Weak D Ind Ind R Weak R Strong R 17 16 17 10 12 12 16 49 D 10 I 41 R

Partisanship trends

http: //people-press. org/partyidentification-trend/

Partisans vs. Independents • When we lump independent‘leaners’ in w/ partisans, not much change in D vs. R distribution since 1984 • Some oscillation, Dem gains since 2000 • What about those independents? – which way do they break?

Independents vs. Partisans

Partisans vs. Independents Trends in US Party ID; 1952 - 2008

Partisans vs. Independents • What do these responses mean? • Party Identification strongest predictor of voting – learned early, social transmision – rarely changes over lifetime • more people socialized to be “Ind”, or to say “Ind” • see F&Z figures

Partisans vs. Independents Funnel of Causality social background Party attachments campaign events Values Groups Time (years & years) vote

Partisans vs. Independents • Partisans – identify w/ party early – identification stronger over lifetime – partisans more interested in politics – Today, Party ID an even stronger predictor of voting than ever • 90%+ of strong ID vote w/ party • hence, elections somewhat predictable

Partisans vs. Independents • Independents’ actual behavior – fastest growing group of voters ‘leaners’ – ID as “independent” but say they are “closer” to one particular party – Leaners may be more ‘partisan’ than weak partisans • Vote party if forced to chose btwn D and R • Highly interested

Partisans v Independents • Leaners – Critical citizens? • Pure independents – nothing there, apolitical?

Partisans vs. Independents • Independents attitudes – but, independents less happy w/ choices than weak or strong partisans – more willing to defect if offered a 3 rd choice – Important aspect of dealignment • more independents, who are more volitile

Partisans vs. Independents Does a party represent you reasonably well

Partisans vs. Independents

Partisans vs. Independents • Anderson (+ others) 1980 – 26% of Ind Dems, 14% of Ind, 12% of weak R • Perot 1992 – 23% of Ind Dems, 36% of Ind, 26% of Ind R, 25% of weak Rs • Nader 2000 – 8% of Ind Dems, 6% of Ind, 6% Ind Reps – 0% from weak/strong partisans

Independents Interested? Care who wins: