Impacts of climate change in the troposphere stratosphere

Impacts of climate change in the troposphere, stratosphere, and mesosphere on thermosphere and ionosphere Ingrid Cnossen GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences Potsdam, Germany

Relevance to society – why do we care? n Satellites operate in the upper atmosphere ( 100 -500 km) n Population of space debris growing – collisional hazard n Satellite orbit and safety depend on upper atmosphere climate change Recent BBC news article and documentary on space debris

The issue: Climate change in the upper atmosphere Density trend at 400 km altitude n Observed cooling and contraction n Reduction in air density at fixed height by 2 -2. 5% per decade n Increases lifetime of space debris by up to 25% Figure courtesy of John Emmert n Known contributing factors only explain about 60 -70% of the observed trend in density at 400 km

Project goal: Quantify effects of lower/middle atmosphere climate change n Climate change in the lower/middle atmosphere affects n Wave generation n Wave propagation (stratosphere, mesosphere) n Key unquantified factor in upper atmosphere climate change n Address with the extended Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model e. Xtension (WACCM-X) thermosphere, ionosphere mesosphere stratosphere troposphere

Expected outcomes and impacts Outcomes n Quantified the effect of climate change in the lower and middle atmosphere on the upper atmosphere (1950 s-2050 s) 10 n Determined how much of observed trends can be attributed to this 50 0 k n Provided future projections of upper 90 atmosphere climate change Impacts n Determined impacts on the evolution of the space debris population n Fed into policy decisions on space debris mitigation strategies 50 20 km km km m 00 0 k m

Collaborative network: Complementing and enhancing science at BAS and beyond vertical dynamical coupling gravity waves space debris Hugh Lewis (Univ. Southampton) whole atmosphere modelling Hanli Liu (NCAR) Hua Lu (BAS) Ingrid Andrew Orr Tracy Moffat-Griffin Andrew Kavanagh (BAS) North-South asymmetry ISSI team (various, incl. BAS) upper atmosphere trends Ana Elias Shunron Zhang Blas de Haro (MIT Haystack) (Univ. Tucuman)

International leadership and initiatives n Co-organisor of the 8 th Workshop on Long-term Changes and Trends in the Atmosphere n Guest associate editor for JGR Atmospheres/Space Physics for special section; now on search committee for JGR-Atmospheres Editor-in-Chief n Co-leader of an International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team on North-South asymmetries in the upper atmosphere n Supervised 4 summer students to date and applied for Ph. D student Long-term Trends workshop, Cambridge, July 2014 ISSI team meeting in Bern, Dec 2014

Recognized international expert Invited reviews n 1 st and 2 nd author on two invited reviews in Space Science Reviews (submitted) n Invited to contribute a chapter for the next release of the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) International Reference Atmosphere (CIRA) Invited collaborations n Co-I on a funded ESA project led by Eelco Doornbos (TU Delft, Netherlands) on satellite re-entry predictions n Collaborator on a funded grant by Jürgen Matzka (GFZ Potsdam, Germany) on long-term trends in ionospheric currents n Member of a new international ISSI team on long-term change in the upper atmosphere, led by Shunrong Zhang (MIT Haystack, USA)

Research vision and career development during IRF and beyond n Work towards a comprehensive picture of climate change in the (upper) atmosphere n More emphasis on prediction, future scenarios n Better representation of vertical coupling processes in models n Build a group n Apply for Ph. D students, post-docs, summer students n Extend my network n n New collaborations at BAS and University of Southampton Forge links with the satellite industry n Gain further leadership experience n Nominate myself to become part of the governing body of the UK Magnetosphere Ionosphere Solar-Terrestrial (MIST) community in 2017

Summary and concluding remarks n I will address a key question in upper atmosphere climate science: What is the role of the lower and middle atmosphere? n Unquantified factor in upper atmosphere long-term change n Impact on space debris mitigation strategies n I have demonstrated scientific leadership, e. g. : n Secured funding n Organized meetings n Guest associate editor for JGR Atmospheres/Space Physics n Supervised students n In demand for collaboration, invited talks, reviews, etc. n I have a clear plan to further develop my career and research n Work towards a comprehensive understanding of climate change in the (upper) atmosphere, focusing more on prediction n Apply for Ph. D/post-doc/summer student funding to build a group n Reach out to satellite industry to achieve impact