Impacts of air pollution on ecosystems human health

Impacts of air pollution on ecosystems, human health and materials under different Gothenburg Protocol scenarios (EB. AIR/WG. 1/2011/3) a LRTAP information flow A. C. Le Gall, S. Doytchinov, R. Fischer, M. Forsius, H. Harmens, J. -P. Hettelingh, A. Jenkins, M. Krzyzanowski, B. Kvæven, M. Lorenz, L. Lundin, G. E. Mills, F. Moldan, M. Posch, B. L. Skjelkvåle, J. Tidblad, R. F. Wright, T. Johannessen and EMEP

The Convention on Long Range transboundary air pollution N, S, O 3, PM, (CO 2, CH 4…) WGE EMEP Executive body Wge-EMEP-WS. ppt - 2 Implementation committee Protocole de Goteborg ……… ……. . . …… … …. . . . …… …. …. … … …. . ……. . …. … …artcile 1 …. …. …; ; . . … …. …. …. Article 2 … …. . . …. …. … …. . … … …. . . Article 3 …… …. …. …

What are the impacts of air pollution according to different scenarios of the Gothenburg protocol? ICP modelling and mapping TF measurement & modelling (MSCW, MSCE) Eutrophication ICP forests ICP waters ICP integrated monitoring ICP vegetation Acidification TF IAM Ozone ICP materials TF health JEG dyn mod Wge-EMEP-WS. ppt - 3 Multi-pollutant

Projections/scenarios available Data provided by TF IAM / CIAM and MSCW • NAT 2000: Historic data (partly Eurostat) • NAT 2020: Assumed national emissions (reported from the countries) • PRI 2020 and 2030: Projections (mainly) by PRIMES – an emissions energy consumption model • MFR 2020 – Maximum feasible reduction plan – how much is possible to reduce with present day technology Data as available in October 2010. Update is on-going. Wge-EMEP-WS. ppt - 4

Eutrophication ICP IM: Decrease of impacts is expected at various sites Number of sites protected /not protected with respect to critical loads for eutrophication for terrestrial ecosystems l The number of sites impacted decreases by about 20% in 2020 compared with baseline (70% with MFR) l The magnitude of the impact is reduced by about 40% with baseline in 2020 (80% with MFR) Average exceedance of the critical loads for eutrophication for terrestrial ecosystems Wge-EMEP-WS. ppt - 5

Eutrophication ICP M&M: modelling at european scale confirms sites previsions CCE Status report NAT 2000 NAT 2020 MFR 2020 EU 27 74% 61% 24% All Europe 52% 38% 14% EU 27 333 179 35 All Europe 185 102 18 Wge-EMEP-WS. ppt - 6 % areas at risk of eutrophication Accumulated Average Exceedance of critical loads for eutrophication

Acidification ICP Waters: dynamic modelling shows recovery… and its limits Good match of modelled and monitoring data Conclusion (with NAT 2020): • ANC goes over ANC limit and levels off • Bad years, acidification may occur • NAT, PRI are equivalent as far as water acidification is concerned Highly sensitive sites will not recover even under MFR. Wge-EMEP-WS. ppt - 7

Ozone ICP Vegetation: Ozone is of concern for food security NAT 2000 NAT 2020 POD 6 (mmol. m-²) = phytotoxic ozone dose The magnitude of the impact will be reduced The areas (intensely) impacted are reduced But the impact will still occur in a large part of Europe Ozone impact on wheat production Wge-EMEP-WS. ppt - 8

Multi-pollutant ICP Materials: Effects on materials will decrease but will not disappear by 2020 NAT 2000 NAT 2020 MFR 2020 More intense effects are expected in urban areas than shown on maps. Wge-EMEP-WS. ppt - 9

EMEP-WGE-WGSR information flow ICP modelling and mapping TF measurement & modelling (MSCW, MSCE) ICP forests ICP waters ICP integrated monitoring TF IAM ICP vegetation ICP materials JEG dyn mod Wge-EMEP-WS. ppt - 10 WGSR Colour code TF health WGE EMEP WGSR

Overall conclusions Similar observations from all groups and for all effects: ● Area impacted decreases ● Magnitude of impact decreases Area still at risk in 2020 Wge-EMEP-WS. ppt - 11 Acidification EMEP: 1 - 4% EU 27: 2 – 7% Eutrophication EMEP : 14 – 38 % EU 27: 24 – 61 % Ozone EMEP: Wheat: 82% Tomatoes: 51% Multi-pollutant 0. 1 – 0. 3 %

Conclusions (EB. AIR/WG. 1/2011/3) Eutrophication Monitored and modelled indicators indicate only limited improvements in eutrophication status. Reduction in N emissions remain insufficient to decrease areas and magnitude of risk for eutrophication. Ozone impacts on ecosystems, food security and human health will remain very important. Multi-pollutant Effects of air pollution on materials and health probably underestimated in urban areas with present models. Acidification Wge-EMEP-WS. ppt - 12 Decrease in emissions of S and N, and thereby decrease in deposition, have led to reduced surface waters acidification and a start of biological recovery in many acid sensitive sites. Improvement will continue.

EMEP-WGE-WGSR information flow TF HTAP TF measurement & modelling (MSCW, MSCE) ICP modelling and mapping TF inventories ICP forests ICP waters TF IAM ICP integrated monitoring EGTEI ICP vegetation NEBEI TF health TF HM JEG dyn mod WGSR TF POP Wge-EMEP-WS. ppt - 13 TF RN Colour code ICP materials WGE EMEP WGSR

ON BEHALF ALL MY COLLEAGUES WITHIN THE WORKING GROUP ON EFFECTS THAT HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THIS ANALYSIS AND TO THE RESULTS IN THIS PRESENTATION THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION Wge-EMEP-WS. ppt - 14