ImpactBased Forecast and Warning Services Provider Perspective SMN
Impact-Based Forecast and Warning Services: Provider Perspective SMN of Morocco Khalfi Driss National Forecast center 2 December 2019
Approch to IBF now Relationship SMN-Users § SMN makes an effort to establish a relationship of mutual trust with the users of weather information through a proximity policy. all six regional weather directorates in Morocco coordinate with each other and with the national forecast center to meet the expectations of local users. Coordination with key government partners(decidor makers) in risk prevention § To fulfil its mission of contributing to the prevention of risks related to dangerous weather phenomena, the SMN establishes regular meetings with its main partners. Thus, the anticipation of dangerous phenomena is based on the thresholds defined by the SMN in consultation with its partners; this makes meteo alerts more understandable for them and gives them time to take appropriate action when necessary. § Good coordination with the monitoring and coordination center related to interior ministory, which is the focal point for risk management at national level. Communicating Uncertainty § the notion of the degree of meteorological phenomenon occurrence probability and the qualification of its impact degree are present in enough forecast informations issued to our partners and even with regard to the weather warning system. this notion also exists at the level of phone assistance to answer a request on what weather will it be next time ? § some forecasts are still transmitted to users in deterministic form.
Plans to IBF in the future Resource enhancements § Ensuring a continuous service and satisfying users in terms of service and assistance necessarily requires human resources, especially with the retirement each year of a certain number of employees. the training of technicians and/or managers is therefore an imminent action to be followed in the present and future time. § The improvement of alerts necessarily requires the validity of the exceedance thresholds defined in advance with the partners. without there being a dense and reliable observation network covering the whole country, these thresholds remain less reliable. in this context, the SMN continues to follow a policy of strengthening its observation network (automatic stations, radars; lightning system …. etc). Coordination with key partners in risk prevention § To fulfil its mission of contributing to the prevention of risks related to dangerous weather phenomena, the SMN establishes regular meetings with its main partners. Thus, the anticipation of dangerous phenomena is based on the thresholds defined by the SMN in consultation with its partners; this makes meteo alerts more understandable for them and gives them time to take appropriate action when necessary. § These thresholds must be assessed on an ongoing and regular basis over time. They can be maintained or revised upwards or downwards according to new information requirements. § Close and fruitful collaboration between the SMN and the other organizations concerned (public or private) is a precursor to the success of the IBF Communicating Uncertainty § the categorical transition to probabilistic forecasts for the SMN is due to the acquisition of a more efficient computer planned for 2020 or 2021 at the latest. this will allow the SMN to have overall forecasts based on an optimal resolution model for the "Moroccan domain" domain of interest. § SMN partners and users of weather information should be made aware in advance of the contribution of probalistic forecasting in improving decision-making for the prevention of risks related to weather phenomena.
THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION Driss khalfi SMN of Morocco
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