Impact modelling Heat wave Impact modelling IMPACT MODEL
- Slides: 10
Impact modelling Heat wave
Impact modelling IMPACT MODEL INPUTS HC IMPACT MODEL INPUTS DETAIL EVENT CHARACTERIZATION INTENSITY DISTRIBUTION HAZARD EXPOSURE INVENTORY DATABASE of ELEMENTS at RISK VULNERABILITY CLASSIFICATION DAMAGE PROBABILITY FUNCTIONS www. clarity-h 2020. eu 2
Impact modelling HC HAZARD MODELLING Event characterization and intensity distribution in study area analysis grid ELEMENTS AT RISK POPULATION Population distribution in study area analysis grid, by vulnerability classes VULNERABILITY DAMAGE PROBABILITY FUNCTIONS VULNERABILITY CLASSIFICATION www. clarity-h 2020. eu Probability of damage to population & parameters evaluation for vulnerability classes attribution (by age, gender, conditions, etc. ) 3
Hazard definition HC Period of at least 2 days with maximum apparent temperature higher than the 95 th percentile of the specific month distribution Air temperature which satisfies the 95 th percentile of the warm-month distribution. www. clarity-h 2020. eu Period Ta>95° perc Baseline 19710101 -20001231 33. 222°C RCP 26 20110101 -20401231 34. 679°C RCP 26 20410101 -20701231 34. 598°C RCP 26 20710101 -21001231 34. 281°C RCP 45 20110101 -20401231 34. 251°C RCP 45 20410101 -20701231 35. 463°C RCP 45 20710101 -21001231 35. 722°C RCP 85 20110101 -20401231 34. 252°C RCP 85 20410101 -20701231 36. 210°C RCP 85 20710101 -21001231 37. 953°C 4
Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (Pan-European level) UA Population exposure distribution Damage scale Damage levels D 0 NO Damage D 1 Death Description Discomfort damage scale Damage class www. clarity-h 2020. eu Description A (UTCI) B (UTCI) D 0 No Damage 9 26 D 1 Caution (Moderate heat stress, warm) 26 32 D 2 Extrame caution (Strong heat stress, hot) 32 38 D 3 Danger (Extreme heat stress, very hot) 38 46 D 4 Extreme danger(Sweltering) 46 54 5
Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (Pan-European level) Tmrt* [f(air temperature, surface temperature, albedo, emissivity, transmissivity, building shadows, vegetation shadows) UTCI** [f(air temperature, wind velocity, humidity, Trmt)] Vulnerability and risk impact analysis AT*** [f(UTCI)] *Lindberg, F. , Holmer, B. , & Thorsson, S. (2008). SOLWEIG 1. 0–Modelling spatial variations of 3 D radiant fluxes and mean radiant temperature in complex urban settings. International journal of biometeorology, 52(7), 697 -713. **Błażejczyk, K. (2011). Mapping of UTCI in local scale (the case of Warsaw). Prace i Studia Geograficzne WGSR UW, 47, 275 -283. ***Blazejczyk, K. , Epstein, Y. , Jendritzky, G. , Staiger, H. , & Tinz, B. (2012). Comparison of UTCI to selected thermal indices. International journal of biometeorology, 56(3), 515 -535. 6 www. clarity-h 2020. eu
Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (Pan-European level) North-continental areas Heat wave Praga Buapest Parigi Londra Stoccolma Helinki Zurigo Dublino* Mediterranean areas Barcellona Lubjana Torino MIlano Roma Atene Valenzia* www. clarity-h 2020. eu *Dublino and Valenzia are outliers. Therefore they have been removed. 7
Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (Pan-European level) Heat wave Mediterranean areas North-continental areas Mortality rate 7 3 6 5 2. 5 4 2 3 1. 5 2 1 0 1 21. 5 22. 4 27 var www. clarity-h 2020. eu 30. 3 Expon. (var) 31. 8 32. 7 0. 5 0 18. 2 16. 5 20. 4 21. 9 22. 6 23. 4 8
Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (Pan-European level) Mediterranean areas - Vulnerability curves Mortality rate 8 6 Tmrt Mortality rate (Summer 2012) 4 2 0 21. 5 22. 4 27 UTCI 31. 8 32. 7 Mortality rate 3 AT 30. 3 var 2. 5 2 1. 5 1 Mortality rate distribution in Rome 0. 5 0 18. 2 16. 5 20. 4 21. 9 22. 6 23. 4 North-continental areas - Vulnerability curves www. clarity-h 2020. eu 9
Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (Pan-European level) VA Tmrt UTCI Discomfort damage scale AT www. clarity-h 2020. eu Damage class Description A (UTCI) B (UTCI) D 0 No Damage 9 26 D 1 Caution (Moderate heat stress, warm) 26 32 D 2 Extrame caution (Strong heat stress, hot) 32 38 D 3 Danger (Extreme heat stress, very hot) 38 46 D 4 Extreme danger (Sweltering) 46 54 UTCI in Naples 10
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