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Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

Climate Change: Interface with Plant Sciences Eugene S. Takle Professor of Atmospheric Science Department

Climate Change: Interface with Plant Sciences Eugene S. Takle Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 gstakle@iastate. edu Plant Science Institute Iowa State University Ames, IA 26 October 2007 PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2007 380 ppm PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2007 380 ppm PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2050 550 ppm PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2050 550 ppm PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

http: //www. ncdc. noaa. gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg. gif

http: //www. ncdc. noaa. gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg. gif

Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al. , 2004). Observed

Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al. , 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.

Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Energy intensive Reduced Consumption Energy conserving Mitigation Possible Adaptation Necessary TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL IPCC

Energy intensive Reduced Consumption Energy conserving Mitigation Possible Adaptation Necessary TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL IPCC Fourth. PROJECT Assessment Report Summary for Policy. CLIMATE Makers SIMULATIONS

Tin and Seager

Tin and Seager

Projected Changes for the Climate of Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment) Longer frost-free period (high)

Projected Changes for the Climate of Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment) Longer frost-free period (high) Higher average winter temperatures (high) Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high) More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium) Lower mean summertime daily max temperature Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high) More (~10%) precipitation (medium) More variability of summer precipitation (high) – More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high) – Higher episodic streamflow (medium) – Longer periods without rain (medium) Higher absolute humidity (high) Stronger storm systems (medium) Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models inconclusive PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program Linda O. Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric

North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program Linda O. Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric Research Principal Investigator Raymond Arritt, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University Erasmo Buono, Richard Jones, Hadley Centre, UK Daniel Caya, OURANOS, Canada Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA Filippo Giorgi, Jeremy Pal, Abdus Salam ICTP, Italy Isaac Held, Ron Stouffer, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA Linda O. Mearns, Doug Nychka, Phil Rasch, Tom Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA http: //www. narccap. ucar. edu/

NARCCAP PLAN A 2 Emissions Scenario GFDL CCSM HADAM 3 link to EU programs

NARCCAP PLAN A 2 Emissions Scenario GFDL CCSM HADAM 3 link to EU programs 1960 -1990 current Provide boundary conditions MM 5 Reg. CM 3 Iowa State/ PNNL UC Santa Cruz ICTP NARCCAP CRCM HADRM 3 Quebec, Ouranos Hadley Centre CGCM 3 2040 -2070 future RSM Scripps WRF NCAR/ PNNL IAMAS 2005

Potential Plant-Climate Research Issues Plants that adapt to climate change – Higher yield (seed

Potential Plant-Climate Research Issues Plants that adapt to climate change – Higher yield (seed and/or biomass; above-ground and/or below-ground) – Drought tolerance – Disease resistance – Resilient to water logging Plants that mitigate climate change – Carbon sequestration – Plants for fuels – Artificial photosynthesis (? ) PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Potential Plant-Climate Research Issues Plants that deliver environmental services – Stimulate rainfall, enhance recycling

Potential Plant-Climate Research Issues Plants that deliver environmental services – Stimulate rainfall, enhance recycling ratio – Protect soil from erosion – Better use of early season PAR PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Recycling ratio, R = PL/P PL = precipitation from local sources P = total

Recycling ratio, R = PL/P PL = precipitation from local sources P = total precipitation Amazon: R ~ (0. 24 - 0. 56) Upper Mississippi River Basin: R~ (0. 2 -0. 24)

May June Jul

May June Jul

ISU Climate Science and Impacts Initiative Open invitation to faculty, staff, and graduate students

ISU Climate Science and Impacts Initiative Open invitation to faculty, staff, and graduate students to discuss opportunities for collaboration on basic science and applications of climate change and climate variability Monday November 26 4: 00 -5: 30 PM 3140 Agronomy Hall (? ) Overview of regional climate science at ISU (10 min) Proposals submitted Funding opportunities available